Next week I am honored to be a keynote speaker for the California Transit Association’s 47th Annual Fall Conference to be held in Palm Springs, CA.  California transit agencies have evolved considerably across  historical eras of transportation within the state — and based on the signals I see today as a friendly outsider – they are well positioned to become leaders in developing a new vision for integrated transit services across small towns, suburban metros and urban communities.

The future of transit will be shaped by many drivers of change- politics associated with funding, fleet management business models, demographic transitions (e.g. Aging Boomers; Millennial family formation), technology (e.g. sensing and automation software; location-based services), energy (e.g. fuels; fleet electrification), micro-macro economic policies, materials engineering, architecture and urban design – and the list goes on.

The distinctions we will explore in the keynote are between the trends likely to deliver incremental changes (more or less change; moving slowly over time; often constraint-based) versus those forces of change capable of delivering transformative solutions (different capabilities that create new demand) that alter business models and community expectations for  transit experiences.

While it is hard to agree exactly on how transit might evolve in the years ahead – it is easier to imagine that it will be different as the conditions of the world around us change.   Transit, like our modern day automobile industry, is a relatively new market sector and cultural expectation— growing up in a mid 20thcentury world shaped by consumerism, cheap fuels, and green field highways & suburban expansion.   Transit is well positioned to redefine fleet-based service innovation in a world where these 20th century conditions are increasingly challenged and constrained by new forces of global change.

The vision we need to evolve is one that re-imagines the role of fleets within society– and the seamless flow that can exist across multiple modes of transportation.

Transit will continue to serve communities using a diversified fleet of fixed route buses, light and commuter rail - and on-demand paratransit and door-to-door services.  We can also imagine transit leading the way in mainstreaming opportunities for active transportation (e.g. walking; biking) and delivering new vehicle form factors designed and built for the 21st century where integration, automation and flow are the most important qualities of fleet operation.

 

My presentation will focus on ways to close the gap between how the world is changing around transit – versus the internal industry talent strategy needed to change community expectations for an expanded role of transit in the next century.  The challenge for California transit agencies will be in identifying and delivering the skill sets and mindsets needed within the state to transition into a 21st century mobility environment.

Following the talk, I will follow up with a capture and report out on the conversation and look forward to meeting everyone in California next week!

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IBM Watson™ made its debut in February 2011 when the Deep Question & Answer software system defeated two previous reigning human champions – Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter in a three-night special Jeopardy! showcase. The event made for carnival headlines but most news reports failed to connect Watson’s performance with its intended application- to transform the nature of human productivity in an age of information-rich, context dependent and software-mediated work environments. Watson is designed to augment (improve) our capacity to think through complex problems, ask the right questions,  judge possible solutions and make informed confident decisions based on real-world data that exists within our own memory banks and beyond.

Productivity and Life-long Learning via Personal Assistants IBM Watson™ and Apple Siri™  are early signals of what might transform work and lifelong learning around software based personal assistants that push human beings to think more deeply and broadly about questions, answers and their personal confidence levels in making decisions. IBM is leading the way in an emerging paradigm for software – based on improving human cognitive performance in an era of endless streams of data and changing contexts around the marketplace and collective industry knowledge base. The next step for IBM’s Watson is to enter the workplace and help to transform the capacity of human work.  IBM’s public roadmap for Watson begins in three main industries: Healthcare, Finance and Customer Service.  But first, let’s explore why Watson matters….

Why Watson Matters… Natural Language, Box in a Cloud, Focus on Answers & Honesty about Confidence Levels 

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Future of Energy Interviews

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In March 2011 I was invited to Oklahoma State University to deliver two talks on the future of energy for the School of International Studies Global Briefings Series and at an awards ceremony for the campus Institute for Sustainable Environments.  During my visit I was asked to speak with Rob McClendon Host of Oklahoma Horizons [...]

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DuPont acquisition of Danisco seen as catalyst for Era of Bio Industrialism

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Why Uber car’s On Demand Service is more Disruptive than Zipcar’s Alternative Ownership Model

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Forecast & Outlook: Industry pundits might soon recognize the most innovative transportation startup in the land as San Francisco-based Uber: a compay that connects fleet drivers to users via an on-demand, mobility-as-service business model. This high-tech, high-touch, point-to-point service empowers fleet owners/drivers and has the potential to provide users with a more compelling access solution to Zipcar’s [...]

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The Rise of a Geek Industrial Society – Why The Future Will be Programmed

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Part One of Series: The Future of Programming (for Non-Programmers) Today we are witnessing the rise of the Programmer as one of the most important enabling actors in the global knowledge economy. These individuals and communities who design and build software that power computing devices and networks that permeate our world might occupy ‘the’ drivers [...]

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2011 Wish List for Energy and Transportation Industries

January 8, 2011

Having started off the New Year with two radio interviews on the future of transporation and energy (Coast to Coast ; The Takeaway), I expanded my notes into a list of wish list for  the year(s) ahead. Change happens slowly in the energy and transportation sectors – and the majority of ‘predictions‘ are essentially about [...]

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The Future of Data – A Web of Wisdom or Manipulation?

April 23, 2010

World Wide Web Part Three: The Wisdom Web Web 1.0: Get Online! No problem, let’s build a Website. Web 2.0: Get Social! No problem, let’s build a community. Web 3.0: Get Smarter! How do we do that? The Web’s Reality Check: Not there yet! The web has not yet matured as a platform for lifelong [...]

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Are GM and Segway Planning A New Mobility as Service Category?

March 25, 2010

Is the auto industry preparing to introduce a new product+service category for the future of mobility?  Could software and sensing systems transform the chariot or pod form factor into a commercially viable mobility-as-service solution in the years ahead? Or is this all just for auto show eye-candy, PopSci magazine covers, and Hollywood sets rather than city [...]

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Carbon Nanomaterials and Obama’s Vision of Risk-takers, the Doers, and the Makers of Things

March 23, 2010

A lot can happen in 10 years when looking at the launch phase of new industries!  In 1990, the ‘information superhighway‘ was an abstraction not fully understood by the public.  Most people did not care about computers- or demand products or services that would help them connect or be social on this digital highway. And few [...]

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