Professional Futurists who work with clients are familiar with the perception pitfalls associated with forecasts and scenarios that deal with the impact of technology.
Working with clients to challenge their assumptions about transformational changes to their business models is always hardest when it centers around technology. This is why framing forecasts and scenarios around life stage and lifestyle transitions is generally a more digestible format for scenarios and forecasts.
Why is technology a hard pill to swallow? A combination of reasons: risks of early adoption, costs associated with implementation and support, lack of ‘pull’ demand from consumers, low market share even with fast growth (et al). And let’s not forget that technology solutions are sold by deeply embedded vendors who have their own varying self-interest in transitioning old vs new platforms.
But a less eloquently stated reason is that the theme of technology (especially ‘digital’ and ‘web’ technology) just scares the hell out of people. Most people don’t get technology. They don’t like it. And because it makes business leaders feel uncomfortable, they struggle to see real world applications for our customers.
Technology, on its own, is never a solution! Yet, whether the technology might actually bring value, or is in fact over-hyped and too early, we love to just pooh-pooh digital technology. It is easier to roll our eyes than to probe and explore the potential.
As someone who believes deeply in the power of technology, I would of course, like to see clients and audiences more open to the transformational potential of technology. And to get us there we need framers like Keven Kelly to bring context to the story of technology – past, present and future.
Kevin Kelly:Technology & Foresight Foundations of Social Change & Systems Thinking
Kevin Kelly has spent decades preparing a script to tell the epic story of technology’s past, present and future. As a Former Editor of the Whole Earth Review and past Editor of Wired he holds a very unique perspective that spans our recent historical era where technology has become a widely perceived mechanism (and ‘agent’) of change.
I prefer to see Kelly as an informed observer as much as he is arguably a techno-optimist. And I believe his passion for understanding technology is rooted in the two pillars of foresight/futures studies: social change and systems thinking. Social Change frameworks (e.g. Progress, Power & Conflict, Evo-Devo, et al) help us understand change and develop the right models for forecasting possible outcomes. Systems thinking forces us to understand structure and relationships that shape feedback loops often associated with non-linear change. Kelly is quick to point out the non-linear aspects of change shaped by emerging technology platforms.
Here are a few of Kevin Kelly’s public lectures on technology. Each is a variation of his central exploration of understanding the nature of technology and human beings:
TEDxAmsterdam
Kevin Kelly: Predicting the next 5,000 days of the web
2007 EG conference
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Forecast & Outlook: The value chain associated with the human driving experience is about to be transformed – and within a decade I suspect most people will no longer see themselves as frustrated drivers but empowered Captains and navigators of complex transportation networks.
