Ford HySeries Concept Chassis
Forecast & Outlook: The global conversation about the future of transportation will soon shift from a narrow focus on incrementally improving ‘miles per gallon’- to a more substantive and fundamental rethinking of vehicle design and manufacturing based on an era of ‘drive by wire’ control systems, wheel-based electric motors and the integration of batteries, hydrogen fuel cells and capacitors. The real industry transformation relates to how we build cars, not fuel them. The problem is not oil, it is the combustion engine.
‘Skateboard’ Chassis Manufacturing: The Real Revolution
With its clear signaling to investors and shareholders that the new 2012 Focus is a revolutionary ‘C’ (compact) class platform, Ford has confirmed (in somewhat coded language!) what the auto industry has kept quiet for a long time: The dynamics of the 21st century global marketplace might lead to an early retirement of the combustion engine and an accelerated shift towards scalable, modular manufacturing platforms!
Ford’s message is very clear: We have created a compact car chassis for the global market based on ‘flexibility’, ’scalability’, ‘commonality’ and ‘global reach’ that will compete in emerging marketplaces.
Translation? We can manage factory capacity utilization by using the Focus ‘C’ frame chassis to build many types of compact cars for a wide range of global markets from Asia to Europe. [See videos below] Obviously, any future electric propulsion platform from Ford will have to offer the same global manufacturing advantages. But what if an EV platform is in fact better for the 21st century marketplace?
Innovating for China & India, not California or Kansas
Let’s be clear. US automakers are not building capacity and know-how in manufacturing small cars for Americans. Fiat did not trade its ’small vehicle expertise’ for Chrysler equity to only focus on the US.
The US marketplace is not the battleground. This retooling is about bringing emerging economies into the age of mass motorization. It is much less about fighting a brand battle in the saturated market of the US. And the advantage will go to those with the leanest manufacturing platforms for global growth.
This desire for lean manufacturing is bad news for the bulky combustion engine. And that’s not all. There are stronger signals coming from automakers that software will reshape the driving experience. So processing power is overtaking horsepower as a foundation for change. (And ‘drive by wire’ is not even a household concept yet?!!)
Ford’s ‘C’ Platform for global markets, but when can we expect skateboard factories?
CEO Alan Mulally introduced his ‘One Ford‘ strategy to breakdown historical silos that characterized company culture, but also out of a sense of urgency to prepare for competing in a global marketplace.
Ford is playing catch up to GM and other companies who are better positioned for auto sales growth in BRIC nations. To compete around the world, Ford needs to rethink how it builds cars.
The global imperative for automakers is to deal with capacity utilization of its factories. And there is no denying that we have reached a point of diminishing returns with the supply chain and labor intensive mechanical combustion engine and mechanical systems for steering, braking and transmissions.
Of course, automakers cannot simply abandon the internal combustion engine. It is not going away anytime soon! The I.C.E. certainly has a future, but it is not the future of transportation.
The future scalable, modular manufacturing platform belongs to wire control systems and electric motors powered by batteries and fuel cells.
The industry’s turning point will likely be when an Asian automaker finally leverages the lower barrier to entry for vehicle manufacturing around electric motors. A truly disruptive platform will be a ’skateboard’ chassis characterized by wheel-based electric motors, drive by wire control systems, and the integration of batteries, hydrogen fuel cells and capacitors. This is how you address the problems of excessive factory capacity utilization in the 21st century.
This ’skateboard’ chassis was popularized by the GM Autonomy chassis (below) post1, video1, HowStuffWorks, and then validated when Ford released its concept ‘HySeries’ chassis and demonstrated its Airstream vehicle.
I know this is an easy target for skeptics who see it only as Futuristic auto gadget eye candy.
That is until you study charts that expose the challenges of managing factory capacity utilization around a mechanical combustion engine. The industry must address the fundamentals of building cars around mechanical propulsion systems.
The industry can no longer have dozens of factories operating at 60% capacity. It can no longer build cars and just put them onto a dealership lot praying that a magical customer will appear.
Indeed, this skateboard chassis goes far beyond novelty. This is a form and function advantage to any automobile maker trying to reduce its exposure to excessive capacity.
This changes how you build, design and upgrade cars leaving an open door to higher profit margins associated with new ‘after market’ business models for dealerships.
Investors and the public won’t believe the skateboard until they see it! And everyone always asks… ‘when’?!
My best gut forecast would be a viable drive by wire skateboard chassis appears in production 2017-2022. Scaling up as the default mobility platform after 2025-30…
What else is likely to happen by then? Software will emerge as a key driver of change for mobility experiences… and the idea of semi- and fully-autonomous vehicles will not be so strange to mainstream world
… and that is when mobility will get very interesting!
Ford’s John Fleming – The Changing Face of the Global Car Market (China)
CEO Alan Mulally
Ford’s Alan Mulally at the North American International Auto Show – Pt 1
While I was Editor of The Energy Roadmap.com my consistent strategic advice to the Auto Industry was:
- Reduce the number of factories by shifting to modular platforms
- Advance energy storage beyond batteries
- Focus on design and driving experience
- Shift profit streams from selling new cars to aftermarket sales and mobility services
- Innovate around the evolution of software and energy systems
We will continue to explore those themes in future posts…
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I need a car to get me from point a to point b safely and cheaply. They may want to sell other services to me but where do I get the money to pay for all this.
David
I’m not sure Ford or automakers are giving up on the market demands of getting you from Point A to Point B – safely and cheaply. In fact, I think they are trying to improve upon it.
First, by making it cheaper through a new scalable/modular electric propulsion platform that lowers the costs of car ownership.
Second, they are using software systems to make driving safer. The historical era of mobility has been software-free. There are no information flows coming into the vehicle that help the driver make the best decisions (both for safety and getting there faster!)
The coming era of the ‘connected car’ (in which vehicles retrofitted with their own mobile communication devices) will mean a new feedback loop of information delivered to the driver. Aggregating Vehicle to Vehicle communication systems will enable real-time travel information (velocity of cars following other cars; event incidents; objects on road, et al).
Ford, GM, Toyota (et al) realize that software is a major component to the driving experience of the near future. It will add a new layer of information to the driver that does not exist today. That makes for safer driving in the end. (Today, we base our decision on a very limited visual reference of the car ahead of us– without knowing what is really happening up ahead in real-time.
So I’m not sure automakers are abandoning their primary function of providing mobility solutions that are safe and affordable. They are upgrading it!
Thanks for the comment..!