Forget about trying to displace oil, the target for disruption is the internal combustion engine!
If you want a sneak peak at the most revolutionary ideas in how we design, build and experience cars visit: Local Motors, River Simple, Commn, and Trexa (Image).
These companies are rethinking platform-based vehicle design to support manufacturing and business model innovations that might define the 21st century mobility industry. They are focused on creative disruption within the industry by expanding the industrial ecosystem of hardware and software platforms that enable low cost, low volume production, mass personalization via ’aftermarket‘ services, and innovation around open-sourced software and hardware principles.
EV Platform = Design & Manufacturing Revolution
The EV transition will likely be driven by a revolution in how we build cars, not fuel them. The best way for the auto industry to reduce its eco-footprint is to confront its manufacturing footprint (e.g. low factory capacity utilization) by abandoning the combustion engine platform for electric propulsion.
We are years away from mass EV production, but given the rate of progress and profit incentives to change, it is now possible to imagine very highly disruptive market innovations based on the leveraging of scalable, modular principles with EV design:
- High performance wheel-based electric motors that provide improved torque, efficiency and a lower cost modular manufacturing platform for vehicle assembly
- Carbon composite bodies that reduce vehicle weight and open up possibilities for new vehicle (shape) design that move beyond metal frames to polymer composites
- Situational Awareness Software & ‘Drive by wire’ control systems that transform the driver experience and replace mechanical systems (braking/steering) with more reliable (and personalized) electro-mechanical systems
- Advanced batteries and hydrogen fuel cells that power electric vehicles using the integration of storage (batteries) and fuel conversion (hydrogen fuel cells) at lowest cost per weight possible
Imagining Scenarios for the Future of Mobility
We are in Year One of the EV transition and it is important not to over-hype the speed of change. But given the rate of innovation happening with EV platforms, we can develop a number of roadmap-based scenarios that might include the emergence of smaller, low-volume brand producers; a mainstream market shift from new car sales towards aftermarket vehicle upgrades, and fundamentally new vehicle segments (e.g. 2 or 3-wheeled urban ‘access’ vehicles).
Software is clearly the lowest hanging fruit – and we can already see a mainstreaming effort towards situational awareness systems (e.g. connected cars‘, adaptive cruise control, et al) by major auto brands (e.g. OnStar; Ford Sync). We can be confident that the driving experience will be augmented by software within a decade.
Yet, hardware is the real lever for changing the industry! And the enabling force of change will be the emerging era of nanoscale materials science and engineering. Advances in materials design could lead to breakthroughs in energy systems (batteries & fuel cells) and composite materials for light weight vehicle bodies that reduce costs, simplify assembly, improve safety and evolve our notion of vehicle shapes beyond traditional sedans and trucks (e.g. P.U.M.A. chariot).
Is the skateboard chassis the 21st Century’s version of the Model T Ford? (I think so…!)
The internal combustion engine is more vulnerable to losing its market share than oil! The I.C.E. is at the center of the auto industry’s cost and capacity management nightmare scenario. Asian manufacturers entering the marketplace are likely to cause headaches for managing capacity utilization, and it might be wise for established automakers to decouple their business model from building new I.C.E. cars to ‘aftermarket’ sales and services based on EV software-hardware platforms.
Trying to compete globally around mechanical engines is likely a race to the bottom for profit margins!
Good luck to GM and Ford as they try to win a brand battle in a world with plenty of capable competition. There are simply too many brands in the marketplace vying for the same traditional markets. It might be time to transform the auto industry around a more open ‘platform’ / ecosystem model that shifts focus towards continual aftermarket upgrades.
And the ’skateboard’ chassis might be that platform… (See GM’s Autonomy concept!)
Just as the assembly line changed the economics of auto manufacturing, so might the modular potential of electric vehicle platforms based on wheel-based motors, drive by wire and plug-n-play energy systems that integrate batteries and fuels cells.
But until major automakers share this new vision of the future of mobility, we will look at startups such as Local Motors, River Simple, and Trexa to show what is truly possible in transforming mobility.
Learn more:
- Local Motors on Twitter
- River Simple on Twitter (Formerly OScar project)
- Trexa on Twitter
- General Motors – Autonomy / Hy-Wire concept vehicles (**Which launched the ’skateboard’ chassis concept) – [See TED Talk below]
Related posts and videos:
- GM’s Decision to Build Electric Motors Could Shift Conversation on Future of American Manufacturing
includes videos - Ford 2012 Focus Is One Step Closer To Skateboard Chassis Manufacturing Platform and End of Combustion Engine
Related posts on The Energy Roadmap.com (where I was Founding Editor)
- The Road to Electric Vehicles passes through ChinaWall
- Street Journal confirms our Case for Electric Cars: A Lower Barrier to Manufacturing
- Electric vehicle industry goes global around energy storage systems
- What powers the car of tomorrow? Batteries or Hydrogen fuel cells? [Hint: Both]
- Video Interview with Shai Agassi on disruptive business models for electric cars
- Is Detroit asleep at the wheel?
- The Good news? China is investing in electric cars, The Bad news? China is investing in electric cars
- Is GM expecting China to extend its grid for electric cars?
- France to spend millions on electric vehicles
- Warren Buffet buys equity in China’s BYD
- New hydrogen storage device lighter than lithium batteries
- McKinsey believes China could lead world in electric vehicles
- GM pick Korean battery maker over US startup A123 Systems
- Hyundai to build fuel cell electric vehicle for 2012
- US algae startups could transform China coal industry
- France’s GDF invests in electric car infrastructure
- Electric vehicle networks startup moves into Australia
- Detroit to World, Nobody has killed the electric car
- India’s Tata Motors will produce electric vehicle in 2009 for Europe!
- A Futurist’s Guide to Cars of 2020
Just a few alternative assumptions about changes in the transportation industry that I am fond of repeating…
- The revolution is in how we build cars, not fuel them!
The problem is not oil, but the combustion engine. Why? First it lacks fuel substitutability and must use liquid fuels. Second, it leads to challenges for automakers who must manage factory capacity utilization. Third, it is bulky and leads to to generic vehicle design! - The industry must first reduce its manufacturing footprint, then its environmental footprint will follow.
The auto industry can reduce costs by evolving towards modular EV vehicle platform based on the integration of batteries and fuel cells, wheel-based motors and drive by wire controls. This is not a winner take all future for energy systems. Batteries and fuel cells are the winning combination for auto applications! - Consumers will love Personalization & Software Experiences (more than eco benefits)
Time to decouple!! The auto industry (automakers, dealers and suppliers) can expand revenues by shifting from one-time new car sales, to on-going ‘after-market’ upgrades and software-media experiences. When will software designers and auto customization specialists be considered desirable auto industry jobs?!
Image credit: Trexa vehicle press release photo
Video: Larry Burns at TED: Reinventing the Car
Additional Videos to watch:
RiverSimple (UK) Open Source Hydrogen Car
TED Talk by Larry Burn introduction GM Autonomy
EV Mini test drive
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Awesome links! These industry developments indicate that your earlier predictions have been right on the money.
Thanks Alvis… It does seem to be evolving towards a manufacturing revolution (and that the combustion engine is ripe for disruption) Now it will take some time for these memes to catch up to mainstream media- and then filter down into public conversation- and then into visions spoken by political leadership! Still a long road ahead for technology, engineering and communication strategies!
Diffusion always takes its sweet ole time! (Unless it’s an interactive communication technology – and even then said technology/concept has been around for decades.) I wonder if there’s a way to accelerate this information. Pretty images sure do help.