The World Economic Forum (sponsor of the annual Davos gathering) has released a short set of scenarios highlighting broad implications around plausible outcomes for the ’Future of Future of Mining and Metals in 2030‘. WEF’s scenarios demonstrate the value of foresight and futures thinking for public and private sector leaders interested in exploring uncertainties about global change (and they cause flashbacks to my graduate school days). The three scenarios were developed based on their ‘relevance, divergence and capacity to challenge thinking‘:
- Scenario One: Green Trade Alliance
- Scenario Two: Rebased Globalism
- Scenario Three: Resource Security
Why are scenarios for mining and materials resources important in the Digital & Knowledge Age?
If you were only to believe the evangelist voices of the ‘digital age’, you might mistakenly believe that de-materialization was the only overwhelming force of change in the world today. But the truth is more sobering! ’Things still matter‘ and our ability to master molecules and overcome the geopolitical challenges associated with mineral markets is critical for positive social and economic change for all nations.
Resources such as iron ore used to make steel, bauxite for aluminum, and precious metals used in electronics and appliances are incredibly important to the world economy and self-interest of national economies. And while nanoscale materials design and bioindustrial assembly of hydrocarbon compounds are likely to help us overcome many resource constraints (e.g. broader substitutability options), there are significant challenges ahead for the mining and metals sectors as economic growth continues to expand the world’s global middle class.
Learn more…
Related resources:
- Oil Drum has collected presentations on mineral and metals resources
- Nate Hagens, An umbrella view of resource depletion and human behaviour, PDF 148 slides, 8.7 MB
My posts: WEC Future of Global Finance Scenarios
http://bit.ly/9EAFyd
