‘Point, Click & Learn’
Visual search and augmented reality experiences seemed poised to evolve as early adopter platforms for learning based on images, objects and places that exist in the physical world.

Google, Nokia, Ricoh, Intel, and Microsoft have all demonstrated or released beta and 1.0 version services that layer digital information over images and video captured by the camera holder or person looking at the screen.

The vision (pun intended) for visual and augmented reality platforms is to use cameras, screens and projection systems for uncovering and layering digital information about objects (including text)  and places.   So you can learn about a particular flower or building while standing in front of it, and not when you are at home sitting in front of your computer.  The hope is to move beyond photo/video capture and bring new functionality to the lens as a learning device.  No keyboard or mouse needed- just point, click and learn.

Camera + Web-based Software = Augmented Visual Learning
We can already see demonstrations of first generation personal learning experiences based on visual augmented reality (digital layers over real world images) and software services that tap the power of scalable  cloud computing architectures:

• A student learning biology is able to point, click & learn about a tree leaf, an insect or a bird whether the object exists in real life or as an image inside a book  (e.g. Bobcat tracking app; IdentityTree)
• A tourist uses their mobile camera to identify the name and history of a landmark building; or to help them learn about the local mass transit options (e.g. ‘Nearest Subway’ app; BART)
• A museum visitor sees an art piece and wants to learn more about the artist (e.g. museum app)
• An architecture student want to see a time-lapsed reply of a building’s construction, or an ‘x-ray’ layer image of the structural beams below the exterior skin
• An aspiring wine connoisseur wants to learn more about a vineyard or ideal food pairing by snapping an image of the bottle while inside the retail store (e.g.  Tesco Wine app YouTube video; demo)
• Someone reading a newspaper sees a compelling image – points, clicks and learns more about the topic (e.g. Ricoh iCandy app1; demo2)
• A star gazer visiting the Southern hemisphere looks up at an unfamiliar sky – points, clicks and learns via an augmented layer explaining the night sky (e.g. Google Sky demo)

This is quite an impressive list for 2010!  And yet these are only examples based on first generation software, hardware and a tiny catalog of images.  The most exciting learning applications of visual search are ahead of us!

Visual Search 2011-2020
It is important not to confuse today’s beta and 1.0 version visual search and augmented reality apps with those likely to image in the next decade.   Both platforms are likely to evolve alongside other applications based on 2D-3D modeling, location based services, robotic vision, tagging, visual mashups, personal assistants (e.g. Siri) and personal learning systems.

But in order to have a ‘real-time‘ experience in which we capture an image and have it immediately identified (from a catalog) and layered with relevant digital background information – we must think beyond the phone or camera itself and see the potential of software as service models.

Visual search catalogs and services will ‘live in the cloud‘ and not on our devices.  In other words, we will not have to rely on the memory or processing power inside of our phones.  The phone will access image catalogs stored on the internet (or ‘in the cloud’).

This software-as-service architecture of cloud computing (e.g. networked & virtualized) offers users tremendous storage and processing power.  It is a low cost, scalable platform for  individuals and companies to store, access and collectively learn about physical objects captured by camera lenses.  This will allow us to access billions of images, tags and related content by tapping this massive cloud catalog of object shapes and textures.

My wish list for advanced visual search and learning by 2020?
Making the invisible, visible
I am most interested in real-time augmented reality experiences that allow users to test alternative assumptions and scenarios with real-world systems.  I’d like to see visual interfaces that reveal layers about the molecular structure of our natural and synthetic worlds.  And if all goes well, it might be micro-projectors which layer images directly onto objects and surfaces that really change the game by the end of the decade.

Imagine an engineering student standing on a highway overpass to study traffic flow patterns and then changing the parameters of vehicle speed and driver behavior to test alternative results.  Or imagine a 5th grade student zooming in on any material to see the nanostructured reality that defines the material’s properties.

Alas, that is my vision of the next decade!  For now, I am comforted and enthusiastic about the Beta and Version 1.0 experiences already on the marketplace!

I’ve included videos from Google and Nokia below:

Nokia’s Point & Find application that uses a video camera to recognize real world objects (e.g. solar panel, buildings, products, et al)

Google has released Google Goggles as its own platform for camera based search

Here we see Goggles being used to translate a menu text (in German) into a captured image into English

Google Goggles Demo

Another Goggles 1.0 real world demo

Using Google Goggles to identify photos taken in Europe

Additional clips

Origional Point and Find demo from Nokia’s Beta Labs

Tesco wine visual search

Nearest Subway Search

Ricoh iCandy Apps

Additional Resources

• Microsoft Bing Visual Search (see this as a database of future)
• html 5 (<canvas>) demo at Google I/O event (Youtube)
• Augmented Reality companies (e.g. Metaio)
• [For those readers who are more technically oriented- I believe visual search (pictures and images) will be greatly enhanced through html 5 based applications (e.g. <canvas>), 3D simulation environment, and NoSQL based personal learning management systems.]

Image Source:
Creative Commons Attribution License

Bloom Energy CEO KR Sridhar gives a wonderful 101 style interview with Fresh Dialogues in which he explains the fundamentals of fuel cell energy and why it is a very smart bet on the future of energy across electricity power generation and vehicle electrification.

Fuel cell based Power Generation: Bridge & End Destination:
Despite the failure of fuel cells to live up to the  ‘Hype’ Phase of expected growth created during the DotCom Bubble, the electrochemical platform continues to evolve and remains a viable 21st century platform for cost effective and clean energy applications for portable power (micro- and transportation) and stationary electricity production.

A few points to note…

As is true with any new disruptive technology platform it will take time to develop and unfold.  It is important not to oversell the speed of change, yet avoid underselling the transformational power of fuel cells to change our world in the long-term!

And while Bloom is not the first company to bring stationary fuel cells to the market, it is the first to garner this much attention!  And awareness of what is possible with distributed power generation is very critical to the industry’s growth!

What makes Bloom Energy’s fuel cell important is that it can better utilize our dominant primary input of hydrocarbon fuels (mainly natural gas) for electricity generation, yet remain relevant to future ‘clean chemical fuels’ (e.g. hydrogen, hydrogen rich biofuels and synfuels).

Sridhar understands the dynamics of energy market transitions and the role that fuels play in electricity production.  The company has wisely decided to ‘build a bridge‘ and a ‘future destination‘ around fuel cells.

Central Power Plant Combustion vs Distributed Power Generation Electrochemical Conversion
Sridhar explains the advantages of direct chemical fuel to electricity generation.  Today we use large centralized power plants that convert hydrocarbon fuels (e.g. coal and natural gas) via multiple steps: combustion conversion of chemical energy to thermal-heat energy (water/steam) to mechanical energy (turbine) to electrical energy.  Lots of energy loss there!  And it requires massive capital investments (that are ‘peak demand’ oriented) and operational costs for central infrastructure maintenance and control.  Oh, and then there are the costs associated with transmission disruption along the wire grid via intentional attack or accidental overload.

Stationary fuel cells take that same chemical fuel (prefer hydrogen rich natural gas delivered via pipelines or trucks) and convert the chemical energy via electrochemical reactions directly into electrical energy.  One step that requires no moving parts.  And it is done at a lower capital cost, and with less operational overhead.  There is less risk because the fuel is distributed locally and can be converted via an energy appliance.

Bloom is opening the door to smaller distributed power generation. Neither this one company nor today’s versions of fuel cell platforms are going to transform the world any time soon!  But the door is open and the public is now getting an important lesson in the market dynamics of distributed energy!

Battery vs Fuel cell?
A battery is only a storage device.  Fuel cells are power generators!  One stores energy, the other converts fuels.  For many reasons (e.g. cost, weight, uptime, portability, non-grid production, profit structure) fuel cells are a more desirable energy platform.  Batteries are very important, but they do not offer the same transformational potential to global energy markets.

Batteries can be used to support the grid, whereas fuel cells make the grid irrelevant.  That is a very simple but disruptive concept that could alter how people around the world access fuels and electricity.

Solar & Wind vs Fuel cells?
This role of fuels is often overlooked in discussions around the future of energy.  Solar and wind are largely ‘grid oriented’ sources of electricity (exception being ‘rooftop’ solar that is ‘distributed power generation’).  Solar and wind compete against dominant ‘chemical fuel’ markets like coal and natural gas.  And despite all the upsides of renewable photons and wind patterns, it is hard to compete with the energy potential locked up inside chemical bonds that are extracted from the ground, or assembled above ground via chemical or bioenergy engineering.

Fuel cells play directly into the chemical fuels market, and offer a more cost effective and cleaner way to convert hydrocarbons into electricity beyond the centralized power plant model.

Of course, we must evolve all energy systems!  It is not ‘either or’ – and no single energy system can be viewed as a ‘holy grail’ to our complex set of energy challenges!

Again, I’ll step off my futures soapbox.. here is Sridhar’s interview:

[via Fresh Dialogues]

Related posts:

• Why Bloom Energy Fuel Cells are Disruptive to Energy Markets
• Personal Power Systems might be the Biggest Story in the Future  of Energy

Additional interview with some more detailed explanation

‘Holy Grail’ vs ‘Disruptive’
Bloom Energy is helping to shake up the conversation about the future of distributed energy systems.  But let’s be clear…!!!   There is no Holy Grail solution for global energy market!  There is no silver bullet!

The spectrum of energy demands is too wide and varied across applications to have one single solution.  Disruptive energy systems exist for the demands of tiny sensors (ambient capture), smart phones (density), electric vehicles (low cost per weight), data centers (reliability), and grid energy (base load).  So let’s not get distracted looking for one solution!

More importantly, we should not confuse an aspirational industry ‘holy grail‘ for a genuinely applied ‘disruptive‘ energy system that could change the cost structure and business model innovation landscape in a way that avoids direct competition with incumbents.

Disruptive energy platforms are rare (e.g. steam engine, internal combustion engine, electrical grid) but we are likely to see more candidates emerge in the 21st century as we tap the power of energy entrepreneurs and advance our knowledge and engineering prowess in the areas of nanoscale materials design and bio industrial processes.

Energy systems are about the interaction of molecules – and both nano- and bio- give humanity new shapes to manipulate and control the interaction of light, electrons and molecules.  And within the energy sector, it is materials science that enables business model innovation (not the other way around)!  This is a materials science game!

Why Bloom Energy’s Distributed Fuel Cell Vision is Disruptive
Low cost, highly reliable distributed power generation systems are disruptive because they open up a new ecosystem for non-grid based power generation that can bypass the incumbents entrenched business model.

They are green in the sense that electrochemical energy conversion is more efficient and less polluting than combustion conversion.  But let’s be clear.  Being green is less disruptive than being cheap, reliable and distributed.

What makes an energy system disruptive?
Let’s look at two versions of solar.  Traditional solar farms try to compete directly against the grid without a chemical fuel.  Good luck!  Feels good, but it’s not disruptive.  You are at the mercy of grid access, price volatility of chemical fuels, and the regulatory frameworks of the utility sector.
The disruptive version is ‘distributed solar’ (e.g. rooftop via thin film solar) and is not connected to the grid, and creates new market demand rather than trying to replace or repair the old model.

Fuel cells convert chemical fuels (e.g. natural gas, oil, coal, propane, biofuels, hydrogen) into electricity.  They are silent, have no moving parts and can be manufactured using low cost scalable and modular assembly.

Electricity powers the future!  And fuels dominate the electricity power generation market.

Bloom Energy plays into the fuels market, but offers a non-grid solution for energy!

Bloom Energy’s success will of course be based on its ability to continue to apply innovative technology with great business leadership.   As to the skeptic points raised by Greentech Media’s Michael Kanellos (whom I respect and admire!) here are my notes on issues of:

• Hype: I hear you!  Of course, we’ve followed this since Ballard’s bubble in the late 1990s.  But you know that all technologies pass through the hype cycle!  Shouldn’t we compare notes on latest developments in labs and Board rooms and talk about an plausible roadmap that has commercialization within 2-10 years for first wave of products?!  Bloom is testing an actual product!
• Durability:  Fuel cells do not have to last 30 years. Stacks can be broken down, replaced, et al.  And the cost is per unit, not per power plant.  So we don’t need a product that lasts forever!
• Mass manufacturing: Fuel cells are modular, scalable units and I see no reason why manufacturing cannot be scaled?  Certainly a barrier, but not a show-stopper.
• Competition: ‘It will be GE, not Bloom Energy!’ — Great!  That is not a criticism.  I expect incumbents will play!  If Siemens, GE, Dow, DuPont, JC, Emerson (et al) get into the game, great news!
• Cost – Bloom’s CEO stated $3,000 price point – a fine place to start, but really, we need $300!   But it seems clear that low cost alternatives to precious metals are becoming commercially viable.

Watch: 60 minutes [video]

Watch CBS News Videos Online

Read similar posts

• http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/02/21/future-of-portable-personal-power-via-micro-fuel-cells/
• http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/01/14/ford-2012-focus-is-one-step-closer-to-skateboard-chassis-manufacturing-platform-and-end-of-combustion-engine/
• http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/01/28/gms-decision-to-build-electric-motors-could-shift-conversation-on-future-of-american-manufacturing/

Note:
I have followed Bloom Energy since it was formerly Ion America many years ago.  And I have been an evangelist for the disruptive market potential for fuel cells applied to portable and distributed power generation.   And to all the doubters of fuel cells or hydrogen I have responses to the dated and misguided criticisms related to storage, production, energy loss, et al.  Happy to answer questions in Comments section.

Additional Videos for more in depth interviews

Forecast and Outlook:  The vision of personal power systems based on fuel packets and micro fuel cells is arguably the most disruptive concept of future energy systems in the world today.  And yet it remains completely off the radar of most conversations about the future of energy.

The disruptive vision of energy access to anyone, anywhere in the world is two-fold:

• Fuel – Anyone in the world can buy clean, low cost fuel as long as they they have access to general retail markets. [e.g. you can buy safe packets of fuel next to a pack of gum.]
  [*Fuels are developed via any/all primary resources from renewables to hydrocarbons. The main point here is that we are bringing fuels to the user, not to the power plant!]

• ‘Personal power plants‘ (e.g. micro fuel cells) sold via retail stores in all sizes: from those already embedded inside consumer products (e.g. phone), to a small portable $10 charger or a $100 appliance that can power your home. [Fuel cells convert hydrogen rich fuels into electrical energy] [Note: Bloom Energy just released its press on The Bloom Box, video!]

This is the vision, and not a snapshot of first generation products currently on the market!  And I am not saying that we should abandon our accelerated focus on new forms of energy production or battery storage!  Just realize that cheap renewable grid energy or better batteries does not solve  issues of access and portability.  We cannot forget about the role ‘fuels’ and power conversion devices play in the energy world!!

To provide energy access to anyone, anywhere in the world we must focus on increasing access to clean fuels and reducing the cost of fuel cell conversion devices.

Why micro fuel cells? Non-grid Access & Portability

Portable power systems are those that use fuels to produce electricity in a device that can be carried by an individual person.  This notion goes beyond today’s grid-dependent rechargeable battery model to include micro fuel cells that convert hydrogen-rich chemical fuels into electricity.

Portable power can also be extended beyond people to the transportation sector for electric vehicles powered by batteries and fuel cells, and for remote auxiliary power (e.g. telecommunication towers).

Think of portable power systems as tiny power plants rather than storage devices like batteries.  But there is a key difference in the deliver of fuels to the the user and the cost of converting that fuel into electricity…

Micro fuel cells by-pass the grid and bring fuels directly to the end user.  Hydrogen rich chemical fuels come to market as small packets (e.g. small liquid containers of methanol, sponges of solid hydrogen).  They are safe and operate at room temperature.  And most importantly, can be bought and sold over a retail shelf.  The ‘packet’ of fuel is bought and controlled by the user.    No monthly contracts.  If they want to pay a premium for renewable resource derived fuel packets, by all means!

Instead of relying on multi-billion dollar power plants, fuel cell conversion devices will be made using low cost manufacturing techniques.  They are silent, have no moving parts and can be manufactured to any size/scale.

Portable power systems mean no need to access the grid.  No need to fight with strangers over a wall socket in a café or airport.  No need to hang wires from your new thin screen television.  No need to have plugs built into your kitchen counter top because your toast and coffee maker do not need to be ‘plugged in’.  They are all simply refueled.

How do we get there?
So how do we ‘unplug’ and access electricity away from the grid?  By radically transforming the cost structure and business models associated with low cost packets of chemical fuels (e.g. methanol, hydrogen, et al) that can be sold over retail shelves, and micro fuel cells (energy conversion devices) that can be embedded in any and all objects or sold as stand alone micro power plants.

The road map to this future is largely dependent on our ability to translate our expanding knowledge of energy systems into nanoscale materials engineering and next generation manufacturing techniques.

Once major cost and production challenges are overcome, the marketplace dynamics for diffusion of micro fuel cells will not have to compete against the existing grid model.  It can grow as fast as the user side demands. (e.g. it is a low end disruptive strategy that does not have to battle the incumbent).

Ummm, what if there is no current consumer demand?

Why I am not worried that consumers do not care about micro fuel cells!!
We are all familiar the essence of the anecdote of Henry Ford: “…if I would have asked my customers what they needed, they would have said a faster horse.’

Portable power receives virtually no attention within the media because micro fuel cells are simply not a viable option today!  And most consumers can see no real world applications for energy beyond their current assumptions of what is possible with batteries and solar roof panels.

Most people have no idea how the internal combustion engine works, let alone the electrochemical principles of  a micro fuel cell or the disruptive business model of distributed energy production.

Micro fuel cells occupy the same spot of consumer irrelevance that was held by the need for a horseless carriage when ‘my buggy works just fine thank you’, or the benefits of an ATM machine when ‘I really prefer to have human contact with my bank tellers, thank you’…. or demand during the early PC age when ‘… I don’t need a ‘home computer’ because I don’t need to do calculations at home, thank you.’

I do not expect consumer demand will lead this transition… nor do I expect it will come from within the existing energy industry.

I am not worried about what first generation micro fuel cells or solid hydrogen sponges can do today.  I care where we think we might be in 2015, 2020, 2025.

Personal power systems will likely come from  startups and entrepreneurs intent on creating new markets, not trying to add band aids to existing platforms. And I am fully confident that enough energy entrepreneurs in the micro fuel cell world see this same low end disruptive vision of putting power plants into the hands of consumers and bypassing the grid.    I am also fully confident that chemical fuel providers will embrace and innovate to meet the high premium value and price placed on smaller bundled packages of energy.

Micro fuel cells (’direct methanol’ and water activated powder versions) are expected to be brought to mass markets as batter rechargers soon after 2011.  And I suspect the real time horizon of disruptive change will occur 2015-2030.

It took us half a century to build out the electrical infrastructure of the 20th century, and I don’t expect it will be threatened anytime soon!

For now, the best we can do is explore the implications of this vision for personal power systems, and continue to monitor latest breakthroughs in materials science and the efforts of startups to bring micro power solutions to early adopter markets such as the military and back up power market.

Micro Fuel cell companies (in no particular order):

• MTI
• Ultracell Power
• Toshiba
• Jadoo
• Fujitsu
• Samsung
• Medis
• MyFC
• Bloom Energy
• CMR (UK)
• ReliOn
• DTI
• Angstrom Power
• Smart Fuel Cell
• Lilliputian Power Systems
• Violet
• Horizon Fuel Cells
• Protonex
• Hydra
• E-Cell
• Tekion
• Oorja
• GenPort

Extra Notes:
Embracing New Assumptions: The Hype vs Vision of Portable Power
All new disruptive technology platforms must walk through the stages of the ‘Hype Cycle‘, and confront our natural tendency to overestimate short-term change, but underestimate the long term potential.

I am selling the long-term vision, not the short-term hype of personal energy systems!   I am making a case that barriers can and should be overcome so that we can reap the benefits of distributed energy systems.   So rather than describe a snapshot of first generation micro fuel cells (as they exist today), let’s embrace and explore a new set of assumptions:

• Retail access to energy!
  The vision is: you can buy a packet of energy or micro power device next to a bar of soap or bag of rice whether you are in Walmart, Whole Foods or a tiny rural village in India. While visionaries try to put solar cells on every rooftop, don’t forget the role ‘fuels’ play in our energy system.
• We unplug everything!
  Electricity consuming products are embedded with micro fuel.  No more cords or plugs.  No more grid dependency.  You only need packets of fuel to keep your device running. (e.g. Every object contains within it a micro power plant that converts a fuel into electricity.)
• Fuel cell energy conversion devices!
  Chemical energy is converted into electricity via low cost fuel cells that consist of stacks of ‘tin foil’ like membrane sheets, rather than large metal turbines at multi-million dollar power plants.
  This means our electricity producing devices can be manufactured using industrial ‘ink jet’ printing machines and plastic casings, rather metal tooling machines.  And they are quiet and have no moving parts!

Extra Notes:
Disrupting the Era of Grid Dependency

For most of human history all energy was local.  Regionally available fuels (e.g. wood/biomass) were converted onsite (e.g. usually via fire) and controlled by the individual.   This was expensive in terms of labor and environmental impact (goodbye forests, goodbye clean air) but did not require organized capital investment or complex ‘energy companies’.

Then humans figured out a way to master electrons- and the age of electricity was born.  The only problem was that producing electricity was best handled in large power plants.  Thus the electrical grid was born.  And from that point forward access to electrical energy was based on a one-way stream of wires.  And humans became dependent on a ‘grid’ for their access to energy.

Let’s focus on the model: fuels such as coal and natural gas are discovered, exploited, refined, transported, heated to boil water that spin turbines that create electricity that travel long distances over wires to a wall socket.  Break that stream anywhere along the chain and the wall socket is useless.

Efficient? Hardly, more than half the energy is lost in the process.

Reliable?  Yes and no.  Even the .1% downtime of today’s modern grids cost tens of billions of dollars in lost economic productivity.

Cost effective?  Yes!

Valued by users? Absolutely!  (Unless you are talking about my portable gadgets!  Or if I don’t have access to the grid!)

The energy marketplace lesson?  Value and cost matter more than efficiency gains/losses.

Business models that make money beat the physics of energy loss.
(e.g. dear skeptics, stop trying to say hydrogen does not make sense because of laws of thermodynamics.  Can you add value is the only question you must ask!]

So let’s focus on how we can create value for users in a way that makes the centralized grid model irrelevant!  Rethink how we distribute fuels & convert them via distributed micro power plants!

Forget about trying to displace oil, the target for disruption is the internal combustion engine!

If you want a sneak peak at the most revolutionary ideas in how we design, build and experience cars visit: Local Motors, River Simple, Commn, and Trexa (Image).

These companies are rethinking platform-based vehicle design to support manufacturing and business model innovations that might define the 21st century mobility industry.  They are focused on creative disruption within the industry by expanding the industrial ecosystem of hardware and software platforms that enable low cost, low volume production, mass personalization via ’aftermarket‘ services, and innovation around open-sourced software and hardware principles.

EV Platform = Design & Manufacturing Revolution
The EV transition will likely be driven by a revolution in how we build cars, not fuel them.  The best way for the auto industry to reduce its eco-footprint is to confront its manufacturing footprint (e.g. low factory capacity utilization) by abandoning the combustion engine platform for electric propulsion.

We are years away from mass EV production, but given the rate of progress and profit incentives to change,  it is now possible to imagine very highly disruptive market innovations based on the leveraging of  scalable, modular principles with EV design:

• High performance wheel-based electric motors that provide improved torque, efficiency and a lower cost modular manufacturing platform for vehicle assembly
• Carbon composite bodies that reduce vehicle weight and open up possibilities for new vehicle (shape) design that move beyond metal frames to polymer composites
• Situational Awareness Software & ‘Drive by wire’ control systems that transform the driver experience and replace mechanical systems (braking/steering) with more reliable (and personalized) electro-mechanical systems
• Advanced batteries and hydrogen fuel cells that power electric vehicles using the integration of storage (batteries) and fuel conversion (hydrogen fuel cells) at lowest cost per weight possible

Imagining Scenarios for the Future of Mobility
We are in Year One of the EV transition and it is important not to over-hype the speed of change.   But given the rate of innovation happening with EV platforms, we can develop a number of roadmap-based scenarios that might include the emergence of smaller, low-volume brand producers; a mainstream market shift from new car sales towards aftermarket vehicle upgrades, and fundamentally new vehicle segments (e.g. 2 or 3-wheeled urban ‘access’ vehicles).

Software is clearly the lowest hanging fruit – and we can already see a  mainstreaming effort towards situational awareness systems (e.g. connected cars‘, adaptive cruise control, et al) by major auto brands (e.g. OnStar; Ford Sync).  We can be confident that the driving experience will be augmented by software within a decade.

Yet, hardware is the real lever for changing the industry!  And the enabling force of change will be the emerging era of nanoscale materials science and engineering.   Advances in materials design could lead to breakthroughs in energy systems (batteries & fuel cells) and composite materials for light weight vehicle bodies that reduce costs, simplify assembly, improve safety and evolve our notion of vehicle shapes beyond traditional sedans and trucks (e.g. P.U.M.A. chariot).

Is the skateboard chassis the 21st Century’s version of the Model T Ford?  (I think so…!)
The internal combustion engine is more vulnerable to losing its market share than oil!  The I.C.E. is at the center of the auto industry’s cost and capacity management nightmare scenario.  Asian manufacturers entering the marketplace are likely to cause headaches for managing capacity utilization, and it might be wise for established automakers to decouple their business model from building new I.C.E. cars to ‘aftermarket’ sales and services based on EV software-hardware platforms.

Trying to compete globally around mechanical engines is likely a race to the bottom for profit margins!

Good luck to GM and Ford as they try to win a brand battle in a world with plenty of capable competition.   There are simply too many brands in the marketplace vying for the same traditional markets.  It might be time to transform the auto industry around a more open ‘platform’ / ecosystem model that shifts focus towards continual aftermarket upgrades.

And the ’skateboard’ chassis might be that platform… (See GM’s Autonomy concept!)

Just as the assembly line changed the economics of auto manufacturing, so might the modular potential of electric vehicle platforms based on wheel-based motors, drive by wire and plug-n-play energy systems that integrate batteries and fuels cells.

But until major automakers share this new vision of the future of mobility, we will look at startups such as Local Motors, River Simple, and Trexa to show what is truly possible in transforming mobility.

Learn more:

• Local Motors on Twitter
• River Simple on Twitter (Formerly OScar project)
• Trexa on Twitter
• General Motors – Autonomy / Hy-Wire concept vehicles (**Which launched the ’skateboard’ chassis concept) – [See TED Talk below]

Related posts and videos:

• GM’s Decision to Build Electric Motors Could Shift Conversation on Future of American Manufacturing
  includes videos
• Ford 2012 Focus Is One Step Closer To Skateboard Chassis Manufacturing Platform and End of Combustion Engine

Related posts on The Energy Roadmap.com (where I was Founding Editor)

• The Road to Electric Vehicles passes through ChinaWall
• Street Journal confirms our Case for Electric Cars: A Lower Barrier to Manufacturing
• Electric vehicle industry goes global around energy storage systems
• What powers the car of tomorrow? Batteries or Hydrogen fuel cells? [Hint: Both]
• Video Interview with Shai Agassi on disruptive business models for electric cars
• Is Detroit asleep at the wheel?
• The Good news? China is investing in electric cars, The Bad news? China is investing in electric cars
• Is GM expecting China to extend its grid for electric cars?
• France to spend millions on electric vehicles
• Warren Buffet buys equity in China’s BYD
• New hydrogen storage device lighter than lithium batteries
• McKinsey believes China could lead world in electric vehicles
• GM pick Korean battery maker over US startup A123 Systems
• Hyundai to build fuel cell electric vehicle for 2012
• US algae startups could transform China coal industry
• France’s GDF invests in electric car infrastructure
• Electric vehicle networks startup moves into Australia
• Detroit to World, Nobody has killed the electric car
• India’s Tata Motors will produce electric vehicle in 2009 for Europe!
• A Futurist’s Guide to Cars of 2020

Just a few alternative assumptions about changes in the transportation industry that I am fond of repeating…

• The revolution is in how we build cars, not fuel them!
  The problem is not oil, but the combustion engine.  Why? First it lacks fuel substitutability and must use liquid fuels.  Second, it leads to challenges for automakers who must manage factory capacity utilization. Third, it is bulky and leads to to generic vehicle design!

• The industry must first reduce its manufacturing footprint, then its environmental footprint will follow.
  The auto industry can reduce costs by evolving towards modular EV vehicle platform based on the integration of batteries and fuel cells, wheel-based motors and drive by wire controls.  This is not a winner take all future for energy systems.  Batteries and fuel cells are the winning combination for auto applications!
• Consumers will love Personalization & Software Experiences (more than eco benefits)
  Time to decouple!!  The auto industry (automakers, dealers and suppliers) can expand revenues by shifting from one-time new car sales, to on-going  ‘after-market’ upgrades and software-media experiences.  When will software designers and auto customization specialists be considered desirable auto industry jobs?!

Image credit:  Trexa vehicle press release photo

Video: Larry Burns at TED: Reinventing the Car

Additional Videos to watch:

RiverSimple (UK) Open Source Hydrogen Car

TED Talk by Larry Burn introduction GM Autonomy

EV Mini test drive

Cisco CEO John Chambers is selling a very powerful vision of future growth based on innovation timed to major market transitions occurring in business, government, education and infrastructure.  His current ‘network-based collaboration’ stump speech offers lessons on building an organizational culture based on foresight and innovation:

• Innovate across Market Transitions - The secret to company longevity is the appropriate application of strategic foresight that allows companies to innovate ‘across market transitions’ instead of fighting for market share during economic downturns or mature phases of industry growth.
• The Network is the Platform – The web is evolving as a platform for unified communication systems and business services.  Business model innovation and operational execution are the foundations for tapping the power of network-based delivery of high value services.
• Social Enterprise – The way to unleash productivity is to replace rigid org chart based communication channels with social enterprise structures that allow any individual to identify internal expertise, and directly share knowledge and experience across the organization.
• Video-based Collaboration – Forget about ‘virtual teams’ based on email exchanges!!!   The game-changer in web collaboration is visually connected workers, partners and customers. Video (real-time and recorded) is likely to emerge as the preferred mode of collaboration in the years ahead.

Here are five videos featuring John Chambers exploring the dynamics of the ‘next generation’ organization:
(My favorites include the MIT talk and India Holographic presentation):

2008 Keynote at World Business Forum

MIT Video: Building the Next Generation Company

Recorded: October 15, 2008   Running Time: 1:07:45

A sneak peak at future holographic versions of telepresence [India 2008]

Video
Harvard Business Review Interview [Recorded February 06, 2009]

Cisco Collaboration Products Demo – 2009

Forecast & Outlook: Electric vehicles (EVs) powered by the integration of batteries, hydrogen fuel cells and capacitors, represent an enormous opportunity for re-tooling America’s manufacturing base.  The high end of the value chain in automobiles is no longer based on combustion engines or mechanical systems, and has shifted towards electric propulsion, composite materials, energy storage/conversion, and software systems.

We are not going to create jobs by merely extending the 20th century auto industry around mechanical engines.  We will create jobs by creating new EV related industries.  So the EV revolution is likely to  be driven by changing how we build cars, not just how we fuel them!

EV Transition & America’s Manufacturing Base
General Motors has announced its plans to invest $246 million in a Baltimore (Maryland) Transmission plant that will begin building electric motors in 2013 for GM’s hybrid system.  GM would become the first major U.S. automaker to design and manufacture electric motors, and it could help to reframe our transition to electric vehicles from expensive ‘tree-hugger’ cars designed  to save the planet, to the future of high value American manufacturing designed to save the manufacturing base via:

• High performance wheel-based electric motors that provide improved torque, efficiency and a lower cost modular manufacturing platform for vehicle assembly (See Videos below)
• Light weight carbon composite bodies that reduce vehicle weight and open up possibilities for new vehicle design that move beyond metal frames to composite polymers (e.g. Boeing Dreamliner)
• ‘Drive by wire’ control systems that replace mechanical systems (braking/steering) with more reliable electro-mechanical systems
• Situational Awareness Systems - ‘connected car’ hardware-software systems that provide drivers with real-time sensing and decision-support, and collision avoidance.
• Advanced batteries and hydrogen fuel cells that serve to storage and convert fuel for powering electric vehicles (and other energy applications beyond transportation)

The EV ‘Perception’ Problem? Frame as Industrial Policy, not Environmental
Let’s not over-hype or underestimate this transition!  We know that it will take decades for the EV transition to unfold.  But the future is knocking at our doorstep and those economies that find the highest place on the EV value chain will be selling to billions of new customers, and be in a position to transfer their materials engineering and energy systems capacities across other industry sectors!   The technology platforms have arrived and only needs to be cultivated and advanced by the most capable companies and workers (industrial and knowledge!)!

The faster American leadership can make this EV transition about our Industrial policy, and not just our environmental policy the faster we will reap the returns.  Meanwhile, the misleading perception of electric vehicles is that of  wimpy golf carts bought by  ’tree huggers’ – instead of  powerful 21st century industrial platforms driven by truckers [See Vision Motors] and built by blue collar labor.  That perception must change before a massive retooling can occur.  What we need are truckers with tattoos praising the industrial performance benefits of electric motors, and factory workers smiling because of their new jobs assembling drive-by-wire systems.

With a coordinated campaign, we might see a return of high value added manufacturing jobs as former ‘Rust Belts’ become  ’Polymer Belts’, and the American auto sector can begin exporting its vehicles and technologies around the globe.  [Forgive my American-centric tone but there is a jobs crisis at hand ]

Updates:
via Treehugger: US DoE loans Nissan $1b for EV Plant in Tennessee
via Kenny IdaTechEX EV 2010-20 Report
Norway-based EV company will invest $40m for Indiana plant

Electric Motor Videos Below….
[Video] LA-based Vision Motors Demonstrating Power EV Fuel cell Truck

In Wheel Motor concept

Electric Mini with Wheel based Motors

Michelin HyLite Wheel Motor

Photo Credit: GM Press Release Image by John F Martin

Before we look at what makes Novozymes a company to watch – it is helpful to understand the market transitions occuring in materials science and engineering that drive all major sectors from food to energy to pharmaceuticals.

An Era based Look at Industrialism:
Ores, Hydrocarbons & Semiconductors
The history of industrialism, and our ability to manipulate the interactions of molecules, can be viewed across several major era-based transitions.

The first industrialists used natural materials (dirt/clay, wood, stone),  before turning to heat and reactive additives to transform ores into metals/alloys (copper/bronze/steel).  In the 20th century we turned to modern chemistry and hydrocarbon resources to synthesize polymers/composites (plastics), and then new tools for layering/etching patterns to develop micro-structured semiconductor materials (silicon, et al).

Each era transition created new opportunities for wealth creation, justifications for using power and conflict, and forced us to redefine what is/isn’t a desirable resource.  Today, we are witnessing two significant transitions in our industrial age…

From Micro- to Nano… From Chemical to Biological
The next eras of materials inspired industrialism will be based on nanostructured materials (particularly carbon-based materials), and biologically driven industrial processes. For now, let’s focus on ‘bio’…

By tapping the power of biological systems (e.g. genetics, proteins/enzymes, and metabolic pathways) biotechnology based industrial processes help to lower costs of production, reduce waste (inputs/outputs) and improve manufacturing yields.

Biotechnology based industrial processes give humanity a new way of manipulating the interactions of molecules by tapping billions of years of nature’s trial and error experiences.  And while bioindustrialism does not signal the end of chemical engineering (it to has a bright future!), it certainly gives us a new platform for cheaper and cleaner materials manufacturing, energy production and waste processing.

We are still in the early stages of this transition, but in the world of bio industrial innovation one company stands out…

Why I have a man-crush on Novozymes!
Denmark-based Novozymes is a bioindustrial solutions company that develops enzymes, microorganisms and biomolecules (e.g recombinant DNA) used as ingredients in the manufacturing a wide range of everyday products that span all major industry sectors from consumer products, food, biofuels, to pharmaceuticals.

Founded in the 1920s (alongside Nordisk) Novozymes is the world’s largest producer of  industrial enzymes used in detergents, food, and animal feed products.   But it is showing significant strength in growing its ‘biobusiness‘ solutions for biopharmaceutical, bioenergy and biowaste applications.

Novozyme Divisions: Novozymes Bioenergy; Novozymes BioPharma
Web Presence: Novozymes Blog! NovozymesTV; and yes they are on Twitter!

Related Terms:
Industrial Enzymes; Industrial Biotechnology; Bio Industrialism; Bio Refineries; Bioplastics; Biologics; Biomanufacturing; Bioreactors; Microbial Manufacturing; Proteomics; Protein Engineering; Biomimcry; Bio-utilization; Synthetic Biology

Novozymes Competitors / Biotechnology Industrial Companies:

• Genencor/Danisco
• DuPont’s ‘Renewably Sourced’ Materials
• BASF (Biotech)
• DSM
• Dyadic
• Dow Agro
• Codexis
• Cathay Biotech
• Excluding biopharma / biologics for now…!
• And I could also include dozens of algae/bacteria companies (e.g. Iogen; Mascoma; Synthetic Genomics, et al)– but we’ll save that for another post!
• Wikipedia list of biotechnology companies

Recent news…

• Novozyme’s enzymes can be used to turn waste biomass into liquid fuels and recently received a tax credit to launch an industrial enzyme plant in Nebraska.
• Novozymes and Braskem (Brazil) recently developed an alternative polypropylene used in a wide range of everyday plastics.  Instead of producing polyproplene from oil, we might use sugarcane and other biomass material to create a ‘bioplastic‘.
• The company also announced the first paper waste to biofuel with partner Fiberite

Enzymes 101: Human vs Industrial Applications

The human body uses different types of protein enzymes to function in the world!  Plants and animals also have enzymes that help to break down compounds into usable components.

Enzyme names usually include name of chemical being transformed than end with ~ase; hydrogenase ( lactase breakdown lactose; sucrase breakdown sugar; cellulase breakdown cellulose; hydrogen producing enzyme)

So someone who is lactose intolerant does not have lactase enzymes to breakdown dairy’s lactose molecules!)

But in most cases, these protein enzymes are breaking down compounds that consist of the same ingredients (carbon, hydrogen and oxygen) that are simply arranged in different chemical structures.

Industrial enzymes are proteins designed to facilitate better interactions of molecules.  It’s that simple

Resources

• Learn more about enzymes here
• Learn more about bio industrial technology

Related Novozymes Videos

Adam Monroe, the President of Novozymes North America

Lars Hansen – Novozymes North America

Alan Shaw, President and CEO of Codexis, discusses how biotechnology is driving a new industrial revolution

If you made it this far… one last insight:
novo: Latin, meaning: to make anew, refresh, revive, change, alter, invent.

Creating a Culture of Little Brother Surveillance or Systems Thinking?

Forecast & Outlook:  The principles of ‘situational awareness’ based on perception, comprehensive and projection might soon support a wide range of applications that reach far beyond military operations and crisis response.   It is a user and outcomes-centric systems approach that could integrate anticipated advances in mobility, ‘smart’ infrastructure, learning systems, policy-making and business intelligence.

Situational Awareness systems might have what it takes to create demand for integrating a wide range of emerging disruptive technologies that include: low cost sensors, IT architecture (network/virtualization), video, robotic vision, gaming, 3D/geospatial modeling, physical and virtual augmentation, autonomous systems, simulation software, location based service, social web lifestreams (by activity/sentiment), and expert software learning systems.  Yes, this is a grab bag of buzzwords (forgive me!) but Situational Awareness (’dashboard’) platforms will require significant integration to make it useful for users in a networked world.

Managing Expectations & Changing Assumptions:
From Pilots to Drivers to Politicians to Businesses to Learners
Situational awareness will certainly raise red flags of ‘Big & Little Brother‘ by professional and part time conspiracy theorists, but as it becomes more understood and applied by individuals, I believe it will cultivate our capacity for increased awareness, mindfulness, and focus in an age of information distraction.  It will force learners to expand their collection of inputs, selectively identify their filters used in synthesizing and sense-making.  And help to mainstream systems thinking and the imperative of understanding structure, relationships and feedback loops in a globally interdependent world.

Yes, this is my wishful thinking!!  But we are in fact seeing a mainstream cultural transition between the ‘anonymous web‘ (Nobody knows I’m a dog!) and a more ‘social web‘ (’Most people know I’m a dog)!   Why shouldn’t web users continue to evolve alongside the web as it enters its next phase of being embedded inside the physical world?

To become as mainstream as today’s ‘social web‘ behavior and expectations, situational awareness (SA) systems will have to stretch beyond historical and current day applications that lead to potential confusion that it might be just a code word for advanced ’surveillance’.  And I am certain that more accessible concepts like ‘dashboards’ will emerge to properly frame and engage mainstream world!

Situational awareness is most commonly divided into three stages of awareness and behavior that allow us to see wider, deeper and further:

• Level 1 – perception of elements, relationships and structure in a given environment
• Level 2 – comprehension of the real-time situation
• Level 3 – projection and anticipation of possible outcomes into the future

The historical SA paradigm of perception, comprehension and projection is most familiar to military pilots (”lose sight, lose fight“) engaged in training and combat based situations.  In the recent years military leaders have extended SA approaches from pilot training to field troops navigating a combat theater of small networks distributed across remote rural regions and embedded inside challenging urban environments.   SA principles have also been embraced by crisis response teams seeking to create an information architecture for relaying real-time information across a temporarily disabled system.

Situational Awareness is the ultimate user-focused experience layer for infrastructure assessment and utilization.  Now what happens when we expand our definition of infrastructure to engage users and where  might SA principles be applied?  How might we imagine the positive decentralized benefits of situational awareness in non-military applications?

Six Areas to Explore:

1. Driving/’Connected Cars’
2. Political Transparency / ‘Civicware’
3. Geospatial / Real-time for Policy-making and Public Safety
4. Infrastructure Management
5. Learning Systems
6. Business Intelligence

#1 ‘Connected Cars’, Smarter Drivers
The most likely near-term application of situation awareness systems will experienced inside our cars! Instead of engaging military pilots, we will engage civilian drivers to increase the safety and flow of our roadways!

Situational awareness software is likely to play a major role in the changing driver experience.  Automakers are already beginning to integrate ‘sensing’ systems inside and outside vehicles based on sensors, radar, and video recognition that relay information to drivers and to other cars.  In this future our cars are collecting data and relaying information that will help drivers make better decisions on congested roadways.    This era of ‘connected cars’ is likely to make roads safer for drivers and pedestrians, and increase the flow of traffic on our highways. [Telematics examples: Ford Sync; GM OnStar; Kia UVO]

#2 Political Transparency / Civicware
Political transparency is a major driver of change in emerging economies and fledgling democracies.  Civicware systems based on situational awareness allow us to gather real-time, onsite information based on a distributed network that is resilient to attack or centralized control.  In this light, we can view the situational awareness role that Twitter played in Iran during political protests in 2009 as adding an SA layer of new inputs and on the scene conditions that could never had existed prior to the age of mobile social networks.

Another widely cited example of SA systems in political transparency is Ushahidi – an effort to build a mobile phone based infrastructure for ‘crowd-sourcing’ information that could prevent post election violence based on misinformation (e.g. groups rioting when in reality they are not!)   The Ushahidi Engine allows anyone with a cell phone to gather and distribute real time situation information via SMS, email or web or view aggregated data on a map or timeline.

#3 Policy Making / Public Safety
Geospatial visualizations are an emerging platform for communicating information based on place.  We can imagine a future in which social support services are based on a greater understanding of data sensed, synthesized, visualized and anticipated in communities afflicted by a wide range of events or socio-economic conditions.

In 2004 Christian Nold released an innovative map-based platform for gathering real-time information on emotional states.  His ‘biomapping’ projects can reveal where people are happy, hungry, angry, fearful or sad.    Imagine the public policy implications for supporting decision-making, policy analysis, and responses based on this bottom up data collection that can be conveyed on maps!

And let’s not forget about policies that support public safety and enforcement against violent crimes!

In recent years police agencies around the world have implemented gun location directional systems to help them gain real-time situational awareness in an area with detected gunfire.  These stories are widely reported in the media, but what happens when there are ubiquitious sensors and mobile phone ‘apps’ that can create an open distributed infrastructure for safety.  What happens when community members build their own layers of situational awareness?

What are the implications of lowering the cost of community safety oriented situational awareness systems?

#4 Smart Infrastructure Management
Situational Awareness is at the heart of emerging ‘smart’ infrastructure models that attempt to reveal real-time data and conditions within major infrastructure components for energy, transportation and water.  This allows infrastructure operators and users to make better decisions in managing resources and anticipating potentially disruptive events.  (e.g. electrical grid failures, peak demand, rush hour) [See PNNL Laboratory Situational Awarness for ’smart grid’)

#5 Lifelong Formal and Informal Learning
Situational Awareness systems go beyond mere ‘sensing and anticipating’—and can be applied as a tool for learning how to improve our performance in responding to complex systems.  SA systems that are user and outcomes centric might find a home in formal and informal learning applications!

Pilots will often train in mock environments to improve their ability to sense.  Field troops will train in mock situations that teach them how to protect themselves in hostile environments.

But how might we apply staged-learning and/or scenario based learning to improve learners’ ability to reveal their mental models that guide their responses.  How might SA layers expand our desire for more sensing inputs based on real-time information and a stronger understanding of structure, relationships and feedback loops within the environment?

#6 Business Intelligence and Capital Markets
What about the world of business?  Both small and large companies are operating inside increasingly complex market environments that are fragmented and shaped by events and rapidly changing conditions (many of which are not currently measurable).

We can already see growth in enterprise solution markets for situational awareness  systems such as ‘complex event processing’ and business intelligence ‘dashboards’ and decision support systems.  Real-time market situational awareness might indeed offer the biggest return on investment for SA systems.

What is Beyond?
Situational Awareness principles will likely have to be re-framed and re-packaged before mainstream audiences are likely to embrace and adapt systems designed to increase our ability to perceive, comprehend and anticipate.

We are probably a 5-10 years away from mainstream market users understanding and demanding early stage SA capabilities in their everyday world.   And 15-20 years away from more advanced systems and wider spread institutional adoption.

And I suspect transportation will be the first market followed by enterprise business intelligence applications.

So I suspect ’situational awareness’ might be the next big thing for Tweeting web geeks and industry pundits… in 2018?!!

I suspect life in a world of ‘smart, connected’ devices will push SA to the forefront as a way of managing life in this ultra-connected landscape.

In the meantime, I will be looking for the positive applications of SA systems and the potential of a learning culture of systems thinking based on awareness, focus and foresight.

Image Credit: Eyes at Williams College by dbking (Thank you!)
Flickr Creative Commons License Attribution 2.0 Generic

Situational Awareness Resources to Explore: Notable Projects:

• Global Incident Map https://www.globalincidentmap.com/
• BioWatch – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BioWatch
• UK SA Driving Program –  http://www.2pass.co.uk/awareness.htm
• Global Seismic Monitoring - http://www.iris.edu/seismon/bigmap/index.phtml
• Cisco-NASA Planetary Skin
• HP Central Nervous System for the Earth (CeNSE) (Thanks @wendyinfutures)
• IBM Smart Planet

Papers / Academic

• Knowledge Structures for Situational Awareness (Learner) http://www.dodccrp.org/events/2006_CCRTS/html/papers/220.pdf
• Situation(al) Awareness (SA) in Effective Command and Control  by Derek J. Smith http://www.smithsrisca.demon.co.uk/ http://www.smithsrisca.demon.co.uk/situational-awareness.html
• An Approach to Collaborative Sensemaking Process http://www.dodccrp.org/events/11th_ICCRTS/html/papers/101.pdf
• Inferring High-Level Behavior from Low-Level Sensors http://www.cs.rochester.edu/~kautz/papers/High-Level-140.pdf
• The Knowledge Structure of the Commander in Asymmetric Battlefield: The Six Sights and Sensemaking Process http://www.dodccrp.org/events/2006_CCRTS/html/papers/220.pdf
• USE OF TESTABLE RESPONSES FOR PERFORMANCE-BASED MEASUREMENT OF SITUATION AWARENESS http://web.mit.edu/aeroastro/www/labs/ASL/SA/sa.html

Companies

• SA Technologies – http://www.satechnologies.com/
• EchoStorm – http://www.echostorm.net/index.html
• Logos Technologies – http://www.logostech.net/index.htm
• Swarm Micro Aerial Vehicles  – http://www.swarmsys.com/index.html
• Raytheon Intelligence and Information Systems – http://www.raytheon.com/businesses/riis/

I’m looking for non-military situation awareness companies?!!! Any thoughts?

Forecast & Outlook:  Coal is the world’s fastest growing source of energy and leading fuel source associated with carbon emissions.  There is a two-fold path to rethinking our relationship with coal’s carbon molecules based on ‘Cathedral Thinking‘ and ‘Manhattan Project‘ strategies.  The end result and legacy we might leave future generations is a new capacity to better deal with carbon molecules through nanostructured materials and bio-energy technology solutions that master the fundamental molecular interactions of carbon, hydrogen and oxygen.

Part One: Cathedral Thinking
Duke Energy CEO Jim Rogers is the utility sector’s (coal’s biggest consumer) leading voice associated with the long term approach of Cathedral Thinking. Rogers has been refining his public ‘building cathedrals’ message since a 2007 commencement speech, but was most targeted at energy entrepreneurs during an MIT event in 2008 [video below].

A Cathedral Thinking approach to coal begins with the vision and commitment to realizing a low carbon emission future, then developing the technology strategies and regulatory framework to support efforts that will likely occur across generations of innovators.  Rogers’ guidelines for framing this issue?  ’We need a sense of urgency, but not a sense of panic…a sense of hope, not a sense of fear… politics of possibilities, not the politics of punishment‘.

Rogers is clear that technology will play the critical role in achieving this vision of a low carbon future, but falls short of detailed blueprint or roadmap.  So, if I could propose a few broadly accepted enabling ideas that support a new relationship with carbon.

‘Cathedral Thinking’ Foundations: Geo, Bio and Nano Engineering
Geo-Engineering capacities to support carbon sequestration via capture and storage.  Bio-Engineering capacities based on carbon-fed bioreactors that tap the molecular powerplants inside algae and bacteria to assemble bio-hydrocarbons.  And Nano-scale Materials Engineering capacities using nanotechnology inspired membranes and catalysts that enable coal gasification and/or chemical processes (Fischer-Tropsch) that convert carbon into synthetic fuels.  Together, these are the long-term enablers of reducing carbon emissions from coal.

In Part Two, we will look at a supplemental strategy to ‘Cathedral Thinking’ that brings a higher sense of immediacy via disruptive energy systems supported by a ‘Manhattan Project‘ style effort towards carbon science and engineering.

How might we accelerate changes by shifting investments to basic science and applied engineering of biological and materials technologies that could be more disruptive in giving humanity the knowledge and know-how of mastering the molecular interactions of carbon to avoid CO2 atmospheric release?!

MIT World talk titled:
Building Technology, Talent and Policy Bridges to a Low-Carbon Future (April 12, 2008)
[Video [47 minutes]

Newsweek article: Cathedral Thinking Interview by Fareed Zakira
[Reprinted with permission via Duke Energy]

Related Blog Post by Jim Meredith

Duke Energy – Executive Viewpoints

Build Your Own Cathedral Queens University Commencement Speech Transcript [PDF]

MIT Report on Coal

US EIA Coal Report 2009

Coal: Some Inconvenient Truth [PDF] by Geologist David Hughes

Articles from The Energy Roadmap.com