The Wall Street View
Last week, DuPont announced its acquisition of Denmark-based Danisco based on the ‘clear synergies with [its] Nutrition & Health and Applied BioSciences‘ business units.

DuPont’s $5.8 Billion strategic investment is based on two macro trends that will shape global markets over the next half century:

• increased global demand for food (both commodity ingredients and specialty ‘functional foods‘ with health benefits)
• increased constraints on industrial production based on chemical engineering & hydrocarbon feedstocks (and likely shift to biologically-inspired and biologically-driven systems.)

Danisco is the world’s largest food ingredients maker (e.g. sweetners, enablers, probiotic cultures, et al) but the most strategically appealing asset of DuPont’s courtship was Danisco subsidiary Genencor which develops industrial enzymes for biofuels and biomaterials production.

The combining of these two companies did not shock analysts. DuPont and Danisco started dating several years ago with a collaborative venture (DuPont Danisco Cellulosic Ethanol) to produce ethanol from waste byproducts.

But the shift from chemical engineering to bioengineering goes far beyond biofuels – and DuPont could help to mainstream global efforts to expand biologically-derived industrial processes across all major industry sectors from energy, agriculture, healthcare, textiles, construction, pharmaceuticals, and materials manufacturing.

DuPont is investing in a bridge from its chemical engineering past, to its biotechnology future — but it might also be a catalyst speeding up other global investments in this emerging bioindustrial age!

The Foresight View
Inspiring the Next Generation of Bio Industrialists

Believing in Bio-Ridiculous
It is time to imagine a world transformed by the tiniest organisms on the planet – algae and bacteria.  Silly as it might seem, there is precedent in such foolish ideas!

It was once seen as other worldly to melt rocks (ores) and create metals/alloys.  Then it was considered ridiculous to imagine coal – considered to be a useless black rock – as a better source of energy than dominant wood.  Using steam (or oil) to turn a ‘machine’ seemed like a silly waste of time.  The idea of a ‘synthetic rubber‘ seemed foolish given the poor performance of early plastic products (rubber would always come from trees).  And how would we ever make money from sand (silica) alternatives to vacuum tube computers?!

Ores. Coal. Oil. Rubber. Sand.  Only foolish industrialists imagined a society transformed by these things!

So the foolish thing today would be to imagine wealth creation using algae or bacteria.

The foolish industrialists of today would see the carbon dioxide emitted from coal power plants (or waste byproducts) as food for algae and bacteria to create biofuels and biomaterials.

They would dream of a small home bioreactor that cleans household wastewater and breaks down organic waste, or a bio-fuel cell that turns industrial waste streams into fuel.

Why would we ever look for solutions to global energy and and environmental challenges inside the metabolic factories inside the world’s tiniest creatures?

Giving Credit, Where Credit is Due
(Plate tectonic shifts aside…) Microorganisms like algae and bacteria are the engines of all natural systems.

Billions of years ago, they breathed oxygen into the world.  Every molecule that we breathe today has passed through a microbe.   And they are the majority ‘sink’ (more than plants/trees) for the planetary carbon cycle.   There is a lot to learn from the metabolic factories inside algae and bacteria.

DuPont is moving the world one step closer to believing in the foolish idea that we can make things (sustainably) from bacteria and algae.

This vision is that we will make things, by growing things.

Past industrialists were inspired by rock ore, coal, steam, oil and sand.

Future industrialists might be inspired by algae and bacteria.

That is the disruptive vision.

Same Ingredients, Different Tools for Assembly
DuPont sees the big story:  rethinking industrial systems.

Industrial companies make money by leveraging the interactions of molecules.  Heat has been the main method of facilitating those interactions.  Biology offers a different strategy to manipulating the interactions of  carbon, hydrogen, oxygen, nitrogen, phosphorus, and metals.

Look around your world and you’ll find that most industrial products in your life are made up of hydrogen and carbon atoms with a touch of other elements.

Hydrocarbons like oil, coal and natural gas are the foundation of polymers (plastics) that have allowed humanity to leap from the constraints of natural materials like stone, wood and metals (steel; aluminum).

And the past 150 years of industrialism was defined by chemical engineering that took resources like natural gas and gasoline to produce higher value products based on a system often characterized as:  ’heat, beat and treat‘.

All of our major assumptions of industrialism are based on a past and present era of  ’extracting’ resources (mostly hydrocarbons and metals) for treatment (via chemistry) in large batches. To be sure, chemical engineering is not going away!  But it will no longer be the only method!

In the future, we will introduce a new method for ‘growing’ resources above ground by leveraging algae/bacteria (and their enzyme reaction centers) to re-assemble molecules like carbon, hydrogen and a host of other elements

This bioindustrial age could allow us to open up new opportunities for creating materials and fuels that tap the power of biological systems (e.g. genetics, proteins/enzymes, and metabolic pathways)

The promise is lower costs of production, reduction of waste (inputs/outputs), new product categories, and improved manufacturing yields.

DuPont’s acquisition expands its base of usable industrial enzymes that facilitate better interactions of molecules that can be used to make things.

And the runway for bio industrial processes is very long!   There is still new knowledge to be acquired and prototyping to be done. But DuPont’s stamp of approval goes a long way….

I’ll stop there…  some more resources below

Related Terms:

• Industrial Biotechnology; Bio Industrialism; BioEconomy (thanks, Sean_OHanlon)
• Bio Refineries; Bioreactors; Microbial Manufacturing
• Industrial Enzymes
• Bioplastics
• Biologics (Pharmaceuticals)
• Biomanufacturing
• Proteomics; Protein Engineering
• Biomimcry
• Bio-utilization
• Synthetic Biology
• Algae; Bacteria; Archaea

Companies to Watch

• Novozymes
• DSM
• CHR-Hansen
• CPKelco
• Kerry Group
• Tate and Lyle
• Arla
• Kemin
• China Biotics

• Dyadic
• Dow Agro
• Codexis
• Cathay Biotech
• FLSmidth
• Firmenich
• IFF

Image Source: Flickr Creative Commons by: http://www.flickr.com/photos/fdecomite/5062256469/

Forecast & Outlook: Industry pundits might soon recognize the most innovative transportation startup in the land as San Francisco-based Uber: a compay that connects fleet drivers to users via an on-demand, mobility-as-service business model.

This high-tech, high-touch, point-to-point service empowers fleet owners/drivers and has the potential to provide users with a more compelling access solution to Zipcar’s car ownership alternative. Considering real world mobility demands, I find Uber’s focus on a fleet-leveraged ‘per mile’ to be more compelling than Zipcar’s ‘per hour’.

The Future of Fleets: 2010-2020
Uber‘s position as a disruptor is based on its focus of empowering fleets and setting new expectations for personalized on-demand service. And its focus on service innovation might appeal to a wide range of stakeholders: cities/suburbs seeking to new mobility solutions, transit companies seeking to expand their reach and revenues from premium services, automakers seeking blue ocean markets of new smaller footprint EV fleets, and entrepreneurs seeking to enter this new tech-infused transportation landscape.

Forget about bold predictions - let’s just have fun with a few plausible events by 2020 that could shift our attention to the potential low-cost, high margin future of fleets they might include:

• 2012 – the incumbent fleet legal battles begin as taxi and transit unions fight on-demand business models; Meanwhile, GM Onstar and Ford Sync battle for the brand value in a crowded smart app landscape
• 2014 – fleet union leaders wake up and realize that on-demand markets will only increase their service opportunities
• 2015 – major auto insurance agencies release first line of products for on-demand services
• 2016 – a sprawling metro (say Houston) creates legal framework for on-demand fleets to reach suburban markets (e.g. after-school programs for kids, commuting parents, aging populations)
• 2017 - GM buys Segway (causing Ford to buy ZipCar) as both announce roadmaps for ‘last mile’mobility-as-service partnerships that begins with commuters to transit hubs
• 2017 – Tokyo Metro announces plans to test pilot remote controlled mini-van system
• 2018 – Brooklyn and Queens-based ‘Dollar Vans‘ sign revenue sharing agreement with MTA to service non-peak hours and expanded transit’s reach and service footprint
• 2019 - Hertz Connect leads the way as rental companies scramble for partnerships as they (finally) move beyond airports to servicing resident communities.
• 2020 – Toyota buys Local Motors and introduces open source hardware platform for ‘Chariot’ form factor urban vehicles; The industry’s value chain shifts from selling new hardware to a ‘product plus service‘ revenues
• 2022 – Majority of EVs (based on fuel cells+batteries) are manufactured for fleets not direct-to-consumer
• 2025 - Auto safety giant Takata* releases semi-autonomous fleet solutions based on externally mounted pedestrian safety systems for first wave of ‘chariot’ pods to be unleashed in Germany and Japan

One Certainty – Service Innovation is Coming
Beyond these provocative events, there is one certainty for the future of transportation.  Service innovation based on technology is coming!  And I give the biggest upside to fleets!

Who might be the early adopters?  Fatigued commuters? Boomers living in downtown condos? Millennials? Spectators heading to sporting events? Tourists?  Or might companies lead the way (e.g. Home Depot control fleets of pick up trucks)?

It’s just a guessing game on who will jump first or lead?  But we can be confident in the direction of service innovation and likely rise in access-model revenues as the decades old ownership model of the auto industry fails to break out of its capacity utilization challenges.

By 2020, I would expect that the idea (not the market adoption) of ‘mobility-as-service‘ to become mainstream. Setting the stage for a massive retooling and build-out of mobility systems beyond 2020.

Read more:

The Spectrum of Visions: Anti-Car; Social Mobility and Autonomous Era

& What if ZipCar is the Friendster vs Uber as Facebook in the Mobility 2.0 Industry?

The Spectrum of Visions: Anti-Car; Social Mobility and Autonomous Era

The  seeds for the future of transportation have been planted and visionaries are now once again free to envision more radical futures. What most people agree on is that the future will include more choice of multi-modal transportation and that the true cost of vehicle ownership could be revealed as subsidized systems (e.g. free parking; peak/base commuting) are brought into the marketplace of ‘pay as you use‘ fees.

The visions come from a wide spectrum:

• The ‘anti’ car’ communities who wish to kill the car and focus on more structural design remedies of suburban-urban systems
• The ‘go social’ entrepreneurs who see the leverage of collaborative consumption via feel good concepts like car-sharing, taxi cab sharing, and crowd-sourced real-time networks (e.g. Roadify).
• The ‘grow with flow’ crowd of techno-optimists which put all their chips on more transformative solutions like autonomous vehicles and smart infrastructure to get more capacity out of existing systems

The secret to good foresight is being able identify and understand all three mindsets – and communicate the incremental and transformative changes to industry leaders!

Talking with my transportation industry clients I recommend leveraging structural investments around multi-modal transportation solutions and the upside of ‘social geoweb’.  These drivers of change are coming!

And with these same clients, I plant a seed of a more disruptive image based on a future beyond 2020 where situational awareness technologies have transformed the role of the human from driver to captain.

While the end game might indeed be fully autonomous vehicles that allow us to ‘grow with flow’, the transition begins with semi-autonomous systems that empower the human.   These driver-oriented systems represent the near-term opportunity for service and safety system design.

What if ZipCar is the Friendster vs Uber as Facebook in the Mobility 2.0 Industry?

I should begin by stating that I am a huge fan of Zipcar and its brilliant and eloquent Founder Robin Chase. And I believe ZipCar will continue to be a disruptive force in transportation.

My blog post title is really more to provoke and get pageviews than to throw Zipcar’s future under the bus!

I only question the long term viability of their current business model which is a car ownership alternative.

The purpose of this post is to explore service innovations that transform existing fleets around point-to-point business models rather than ‘per-hour’ based revenues.  I believe there is an incumbent base of fleet operators waiting to transform their commercial and residential services.

In its current form, I find Uber more disruptive in leveraging the operational side of fleets and transforming how consumers view mobility as a service (not simply car ownership as a service!)

Uber also has the right people on the bus looking at its Leadership (including Stumble Upon Founder; see Crunchbase Profile] and Bay area home base.  Never underestimate the power of media attention.   I wish them success in 2011-12 and hope that we start to explore the future of fleets as a source of transformative change!

*Disclosure: Recent Client

Part One of Series:
The Future of Programming (for Non-Programmers)

Today we are witnessing the rise of the Programmer as one of the most important enabling actors in the global knowledge economy.

These individuals and communities who design and build software that power computing devices and networks that permeate our world might occupy ‘the’ drivers seat of change in the 21st century.  And yet – who they are – what they do – and how they do it remains a mystery to most people in the world.

Programmers have been behind many of the enabling ‘new economy’ dynamics of the early 21st century: bootstrapped startup culture, open source, social media and networks, platforms and networked-based business models, hacking and mash-ups, remote working and collaboration, real-time, data visualization, high frequency ‘algo’ trading, and radical transparency.

Most of these things emerged out of left-brained geek culture led by early adopter programmer communities.

Whether you embrace a ‘market-oriented‘, ‘techno-optimist‘ or ‘sustainable economy‘ worldview, it seems impossible to envision a 21st century of transformational social, economic and environmental change without a central Role of the Programmer.  We cannot expand capital markets, democratize access to information (or radical transparency), or scale an advanced cleantech world without software driving the entire process.

Programmers as Systems Designers

Looking beyond 2010 – programming has less to do with ‘web connected desktop computers’ and more to do with software reshaping every aspect of human society from financial trading markets to laboratory research, to monitoring natural ecosystems or our own self-direct learning.

Programmers are already moving forward to emerging industries -’smart’ infrastructure (energy/transportation), nanoscale materials design, robotics, education/learning systems, security/military, and all the so-called ’2.0′ versions of government,  healthcare, agriculture and food.

Software is the virtual lubricant for this yet to be built global system of systems – and we get nowhere without understanding (and embracing) the Programmer as a key enabling actor on the world stage.

The Left-Brained Future: Foundations of our Knowledge Economy

We are familiar with the popular professions associated with the supposed right brain Knowledge Economy – it is designers, entrepreneurs, and other ‘creatives’ who are celebrated.

Yet, that we can even indulge in more creative right brain economic activities, is only the result of typically left brained programmers automating the world and reducing the demand for human attention to the routine tasks.

The creative class workforce would not exist without the software-hardware infrastructure coded by geek class programmers.  Nor would many of our most celebrated companies and industries.

When Apple, Google, Facebook, or Twitter succeed it is because they have cultivated strong relationships with programmers (e.g. developers) who drive their platforms forward.

When an entrepreneur enters the market with a new concept, it is likely that the barriers to entry were knocked down by programmers who disrupted in the incumbent marketplace with new tools.

When a Wall Street company sees profits it is largely because programmers were involved in designing the analytic and analysis tools to shape investment strategies – or via high frequency trading ‘algos’ that dominate trading exchanges.

When a Biotechnology or Cleantech company announces a breakthrough product- it was likely built via simulation software tools designed by programmers.

We might not understand how it works, but software will likely shape the majority of  social and economic activities in the 21st century.  Our future will be programmed.

A Place in History?
My belief is that the Programmer will earn a spot in history – as relevant to social change as past archetype roles.

Every major era of massive social-economic change has seen new archetypes emerge as the symbols of transformation.  The Agricultural-Town era had the farmer and craftsman,  the Industrial Age had the factory owner and worker. Our information-rich and business oriented world is often embodied by the archetypes of CEO, banker, entrepreneur and the consumer.

But at the center of most all modern economic activity is the Programmer – those individuals and communities who design and build software that power computing devices and networks that will soon permeate most aspects of the planet.

Next up
This Series is designed to highlight how Programmers might transform our society, economies and environment. And to explore ways in which humanity might tap its inner geek to bring about more transformative change capable of breaking beyond today’s performance limits.

• Part One: Why the Future will be Programmed
• Part Two: Programmers as 21st Century Learners
• Part Three: Programmers  - From Social Web to Wisdom Web
• Part Four: Programmers and World of Finance & Capital Markets
• Part Five: Programmers – Governance, Power & Radical Transparency
• Part Six: Programmers – Smart Infrastructure & Situational Awareness
• Part Seven: Programmers – Science and Simulation
• Part Eight: The Rise of the Female Programmer
• Part Nine:  Programmers – Future of Work

Image (Thanks!):

Flickr by Sebestian Bergmann Creative Commons Attribution

Having started off the New Year with two radio interviews on the future of transporation and energy (Coast to Coast ; The Takeaway), I expanded my notes into a list of wish list for  the year(s) ahead.

• The End Game is Integration of Storage and Molecule Fuel Conversion!
  ‘Electric’ refers to the electric motor (not the battery!). Battery (a storage system) plug-in EVs are only phase one of a multi-decade transition!  The most likely future for EVs is integration of molecule fuel conversion and storage!   That means batteries + fuel cells!The path forward is about lower cost to mass and that gives  clear advantage to fuel cell conversion of chemical fuels to electricity.  For journalists that means learning the basics of energy systems.   Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles ARE electric vehicles.  It is accurate to say that Fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are not ready today, but it is inaccurate to claim that ‘they are decades away’.  Five major automakers have 2015 as target production date for FCVs and it is difficult to imagine storage systems alone meeting the needs of next generation EVs beyond 2020.
• Focus on the Manufacturing Footprint & Fleets First!
  In 2011, we might finally sell EVs as the banner for 21st century advanced manufacturing.  Forget about its eco-footprint,  the auto industry’s problem is its manufacturing footprint!  The mechanical combustion engine is too big, bulky and causes a nightmare for building various chassis and managing a complex supply chain. Automakers cannot continue with their poor factory capacity utilization and must reinvent how cars are built.  EVs provide this opportunity.Electric motors powered by fuel cells and batteries lead to one place – an inevitable lower cost manufacturing platform based on scalable and modular components.
  (Read Open source hardware startups; GM’s Skateboard Chassis; Ford’s Global Platform)

  Also – in 2011 we stop trying to sell phase one of the EV age to Average Consumers, and Focus on Fleets first! Fleets are the best strategy for controlling costs on building plug-in infrastructure and testing operation of EVs in the real world.  Let’s wait until third generation EVs based on fuel cell integration and molecule fuel infrastructure are ready- then target the masses!  Building out plug-in infrastructure for the masses could turn into a sour investment.

• Software & the Augmented Driving Experience
  The battle isn’t GM vs Ford – it is GM OnStar vs Ford Sync.  The software facilitated driving/mobility experience is the big story for the next decade.  And it goes far beyond just bringing distracting entertainment into the car.  It is about making driving safer and more efficient.Mainstreaming of memes to watch in 2011 ‘connected cars‘ (e.g. Cars talking to other cars) to ‘grow with flow’;  and ‘situational awareness‘ based on cars that talk to the human.  The mental shift to watch is our evolution from  ’Driver to Captain‘ as we step up the value chain of operating a vehicle vs navigating a complex systems.  Software does not replace the human, it augments it and shifts our notion of ‘operation and control’ to a higher level of awareness!
• Data-Enabled Mobility Entrepreneurs is another story waiting to go mainstream.  The value chain of mobility experiences has a new rung that is enabled by data-driven decisions and services.   Startup costs are lower and experience in the industry are not required!

  A new generation entrepreneurs are testing social and real-time services around car-sharing concepts.  But beyond this feel good strategy of car sharing –  it mass transit that could benefit most from more on-demand transit options.  Coordinating transit and fleet services is a concept to watch in 2011.

• Pay-as-you-drive/go Business Models – are being tested by insurance companies and could pave the way for the inevitable (and necessary) shift of paying for road infrastructure based on gallons of fuel to a paying per actual use.
• Parking, Parking, Parking - City planners are realizing that market driven parking infrastructure is their great ‘lever’ for change.  2011 could be a big year for changing expectations about ‘free parking’.
• On-Demand Fleets – Start-up UberCab might outshine ZipCar – as it attempts to mainstream personal on-demand transportation solutions.   Early adopter Metro residents will refuse to ‘hail’ a cab, preferring to connect directly with drivers.

Is the auto industry preparing to introduce a new product+service category for the future of mobility?  Could software and sensing systems transform the chariot or pod form factor into a commercially viable mobility-as-service solution in the years ahead?

Or is this all just for auto show eye-candy, PopSci magazine covers, and Hollywood sets rather than city streets?

The answer depends on whether you think the future of mobility will be much of the same, or different!

GM Continues to Rethink Mobility Solutions
This week a unique and globally symbolic partnership of General Motors-Segway-SAIC unveiled their EN-V (Electric Networked Vehicle) concept category at the Shanghai World Expo. The EN-V, which displayed fully autonomous operation, is the descendant of the P.U.M.A. (Personal Urban Mobility and Accessibility – video below) platform which was demonstrated on the streets of New York and Brooklyn in the Spring 2009.  Three separate EN-V models, each designed by teams located in different regions around the world, were branded as: Jiao (Pride), Miao (Magic) and Xiao (Laugh).

Confronting ‘Red Ocean’ Reality of Global Auto Industry

Where might these new form factors and software systems fit into future growth within the mobility industry?

First, we must recognize the lack of good options for global auto industry executives.  The industry’s new vehicle and finance revenue-based business models are challenged on almost all fronts.  Few doubt worldwide growth prospects as we look forward, but competition is very intense and it has become difficult to find a manufacturing-based competitive advantage (remember, ‘most cars are made by the same robot‘).  Industry insiders recognize the structural challenges to managing costs and capacity utilization around combustion engine vehicles.  (We still do not understand the implications of China unleashing its full capacity as it comes online!)

The other challenge is that growth is shifting from traditional western suburban to more urban Asian markets.  Let’s not forget about servicing markets changed by aging populations!  And wouldn’t it be interesting to break open the market demographic to access beyond 16-18 year olds who require an operator’s license.

Back to the present!  Competing for incremental market share gains within existing ‘red ocean‘ markets is not easy and not always profitable if you have to give incentives to earn every buyer!  Not only is it easier to build quality vehicles, but with the right budget resources you can hire a fantastic marketing and ad agency to build your brand in any market you desire!

I struggle to see profitable boom years ahead based on ‘business as usual‘ strategies and suspect that industry leaders are exploring more radical shifts in their cost structures and business models.

Software + Service as a ‘Blue Ocean’ Strategy
If the global auto industry does succeed in creating a new rung on the mobility value chain it will likely be a combination of product plus service.  And I imagine they will follow a ‘low end disruption‘ path to growth by avoiding direct competition with traditional vehicle ownership and instead focus on creating new demand around aftermarket, software enhanced driving experiences, and service/access mobility solutions.

I see the EN-V as a candidate for both future software and service solutions.   Most people will recognize today’s ZipCar service-access business model – but it is essentially a car ownership alternative.  (I am for the record, pro-ZipCar!)

EN-V like pods and chariot formats are likely to offer other mobility solutions such as ‘last mile‘ point-to-point connections to mass transit hubs and high traffic destinations, as well as short point to point trips.  They are easily organized and managed as distributed fleets and if we assume the timing of their emergence will coincide with remote-controlled or autonomous operation, we might be looking at a fundamentally new business model on the horizon.

Still think it is just auto show eye-candy?!

These futuristic pod chassis have been demonstrated at car shows for many decades, but the hardware and software systems that make them viable are changing.  And there are big profits waiting for the industry beyond the mechanical combustion engine chassis!

Pods and chariots are ripe low cost platforms for developing telematic software and ‘drive by wire‘ control systems that assist drivers and turn vehicles into sensing devices.  They are ideal for helping the  global auto industry evolve towards new manufacturing platforms based on wheel based electric motors powered by integration of batteries and fuel cells.  (i.e. It is much easier to build 2 wheeled fuel cell vehicles that weigh several hundred pounds, than a monster SUV).

One finally comparative note – there is a different product life cycle here!  So the strongly held assumption that all new ‘cars end up being on the road for twenty years’ might have to be questioned!

Skeptics vs Mobility Entrepreneurs
Yes, I know, that these concept cards are easy pooh-pooh targets.  Skeptics point out ‘where is storage’, ‘getting side swiped by an SUV’, ‘lead to more congestion if it replaces walking’, et al.  All valid observations, but these are not the types of people capable of creating new value, they are simply interested in capturing marginal returns by extending today’s transportation ecosystem forward. When we try to think about substituting new for legacy it seems silly when human behavior comes into play.

The entrepreneurs search for new ways to enter the market and platforms that help shift revenues from per new car sales to aftermarket upgrades and per mile software-service mobility experiences.

Skeptics will see the future of the auto industry as simply selling cars and SUVs to suburban soccer moms.  And focus only own ownership.

Entrepreneurs will look beyond 2015 and see global growth markets around aging segments, urban Asian markets- and seamless integration with mass transit (e.g. high speed rail; rapid bus transit) that all benefit from access /service business models.

Skeptics will focus on the old, crusty combustion engine form factor that they think customers want (i.e. faster horse approach).  And they will assume that scared drivers will always prefer big vehicle armor as their safety strategy.

Entrepreneurs will see opportunities around new designs based on sleek skateboard electric vehicle chassis.   And these innovators will see software as the most effective safety strategy.  They will build communication networks so that ‘connected cars’ do not crash.   The way forward is not hiding increasingly distracted drivers behind bigger cars, it is transforming our assumptions about safety by increasing the human’s situational awareness and holding them accountable to their safety performance.

Skeptics will roll their eyes at autonomous vehicles, entrepreneurs will see an opportunity to bring entirely new cohorts (e.g. no driver’s license required!) into the mobility industry.

Ok, I am done…

Optimistic but Still Waiting for Innovation!
So that is a vision for the global auto industry!  But for now, we must accept that the EN-V type pods and chariots are not going to be on the streets anytime soon.  Until then, they remain easy targets as futuristic eye-candy!

I do not want to be accused of over-hyping the future, but this low capital cost platform is ripe for innovation – and the service market is a viable disruptive business strategy that could surprise us post 2015-25!  For now, I am just glad to see GM and Segway continuing to evolve the EN-V autonomous operation and form factor!

[Full disclosure: I do not own GM stock, but I have had a man crush on the company ever since Larry Burns popularized the Autonomy Skateboard Chassis!  And I have always believed in Segway. So there is the source of my bias and optimism!!]

More images, videos of GM-Segway PUMA and related posts

Story via MSNB.com; Scientific America;  UK Autoexpress; Wired; Consumer Reports; China CarTimes;

Related posts: Telematics Transform Driver into Captain;

Photos by General Motors (CC License)

A lot can happen in 10 years when looking at the launch phase of new industries!  In 1990, the ‘information superhighway‘ was an abstraction not fully understood by the public.  Most people did not care about computers- or demand products or services that would help them connect or be social on this digital highway. And few incumbent business leaders took its disruptive potential seriously.

By 2000 the Internet was the default platform for entrepreneurship and innovation even though the ‘web’ was still in its infancy.   Some ideas were too early and over-hyped, while others were tremendously profitable.  The industry did not mature in a decade, but it was launched as a real world platform that continues to change society and business.

Could 2010-2020 be the same type of ‘launch’ decade for nanotechnology?

If we want the answer to be yes then we must postpone futuristic visions of nano-robots swimming around our bloodstream, and focus on leveraging phase one nanomaterials that include: nanotubes, nanoparticles and nanosheets (graphene).

Instead of trying to sell visions of molecular assembly factories, we should focus on nanomaterials that can  be integrated into existing manufacturing techniques.

What Nano needs is a decade of incremental innovations and a massive PR campaign!

And if there is one element to highlight and demystify –  it is carbon!

A ‘Designer+Maker’ Vision for Launching Nano
In 2020, the measures of success and prosperity should not be the number of nano enhanced products, but the momentum created by entrepreneurs and leaders acting upon new visions of industrial sectors including energy, electronics and appliances, healthcare, transportation, textiles, infrastructure and consumer products.

The hope is a new generation of Craftsman and Industrialists reinventing the value chain of the material world as product and systems designers and low volume manufacturers of  low cost, high performance materials.

Here within the US this potential launch decade for nano-materials might help to accelerate momentum around the vision long held by ‘DIY’ / Maker culture and captured in President Obama’s inaugural speech … in which greatness and prosperity are delivered by: “…the risk-takers, the doers, the makers of things.”

This message has been adapted for talks on education and ‘teaching young people how to be makers of things, not just consumers of things‘.  This ‘maker’ vision is also reflected by industrial business leaders wishing to expand US high value manufacturing exports.

There is, of course, a  cultural challenge associated with this ‘designer-maker‘ case for nanotechnology. For half a century, the US economy has been driven by consumer spending and policies that favor outsourcing manufacturing abroad.   It was great while it lasted.  And now all economists agree that growth in global consumer spending will happen outside of the US!  Yet, moving forward a strong case can be made for economic restructuring  based on the US designing and building for/with the rest of the world.

These are still very early days… but 2010-2020 might be an important decade for selling this designer-builder vision. 

21st Century Craftsman & Industrialists
Why Shape Matters: Nanotubes, Nanoparticles & Nanosheets
Nanotechnology is a scale, not a thing.  At the nanoscale, familiar and well understood elements on the periodic table begin to exhibit very unique properties (e.g. electrical, mechanical, thermal, et al) because we have changed their basic shape and structure.

When you change the shape and structure of your foundation material, other molecules (and light/electrons) react and interact differently when they encounter it.  (e.g. nano vs micro particles of silver exhibit different properties)  This could be applied to materials used in computer chips, water desalination membranes, fuel cells, batteries, pharmaceuticals, or plastics.  There is no industry or product left untouched by nanoscale material design.

Shape matters.  And the nano age is opening up a new world of shapes for us to explore.

Beyond shapes the element that is most important to this first phase of nanotechnology is carbon.  And the formats that matter most include:

• Carbon nanotubes (single/multi-walled)
• Carbon-based nanoparticles that incorporate other elements (e.g. nickel, iron, silver, platinum, et al)
• Carbon graphene sheets (thin layers of carbon)

These three forms of carbon are likely to give rise to new industrial concepts capable of altering our assumptions of what is possible in materials world via:  organic electronics (e.g. carbon based electronics), nanocomposites, nanostructured catalaysts, MEMS (micro electromechanical systems), and nano sensor arrays

Whether or not we are entering a  ’launch decade’ for nanomaterials might be based on two fundamental shifts in the sector:

2010-2020 From Synthesis to Functionalization
& From Boomers to Gen X & Millennial Generation Researchers

The next decade will likely be shaped by two major shifts – the first is our expanding knowledge base and applied engineering prowess from an age of characterization (learning what things do; nature of nano) and ‘synthesis‘ (how to make them) to an era of ‘functionalization‘ (actually integrating them into manufacturing and applied processes).

In other words, the past twenty years have been focused on learning to make (synthesis) nanotubes, nanoparticles and nanosheets (graphene) – and the next decade will be focused on producing these elements on scale and integrated into other materials and manufacturing techniques. The focus is bringing nanotechnology out of labs and into production facilities and real world markets.

The other major shift relates to the people who serve as researchers, entrepreneurs, regulators, and consumers. It has been Baby Boomers leading the charge since the early 1990s when nanoscale research began in earnest. This generation gave shape to the first knowledge base of nanostructured materials that seemed to contradict many previously assumed principles of molecular interactions.

This Boomer generation has also been cultivating the next generation of researchers who arrive in labs with a more solid collective knowledge base of nanostructured materials and fewer assumptions about what isn’t possible.  These ‘Gen X‘ and Millennial generation researchers might bring a very different spirit to nano era that is more entrepreneurial and applied.

These two transitions will also need a greater context to have any meaning to leaders and citizens of the world.  And that context might have less to do with technology, and everything to do with demographics, economics and industrial capacity and ecological sustainability based on micro-scale applications of natural resources.

Nanoscale science and engineering allows us to rethink how we use key elements like iron ore, hydrocarbon, precious metals and carbon.   And in the most optimistic scenario might lead to a new industrial revolution that is more sustainable and profitable than today’s current material manufacturing model.

———————————————————————————–

A brief interlude on the science and recent research:

Carbon nanotubes (CNTs)

CNTs are versatile cylindrical materials that have a wide range of performance properties:

• mechanical properties as reinforcement in low-cost, high performance lightweight composites
• electrical properties for semiconductor applications
• sensing abilities for imaging and gas molecule detection
• chemical properties to process chemical fuels (e.g. synthetic fuels, hydrogen, biofuels)
• thermal properties for absorbing heath; transforming heat to electricity

[Safety is of course a top priority - but not an issue I will cover in this post!  I will only note that federal regulators have been working with researchers and manufacturers in assessing risks and impacts of CNT nanocomposites are automotive industry, aviation/aerospace, electronics-telecommunications, medicine, and recreational goods industries.]

What matters is real world production levels!   We are in year one of real commercial scale volume by early industry leaders such as Bayer MaterialScience,  Thomas-Swan and Unidym.   By the end of the decade we would expect incumbents in today’s petrochemical and materials manufacturing to be competing in this space!

And while we should be monitoring commericalization efforts, foresight commands us to understand the pipeline and roadmap beyond 2010.

Recent notable breakthroughs include:

• Rice University announced a method for mass producing carbon nanotubes using fluid processing found in the $300 billion plastics industry
• New method for separating metalic nanotubes
• Zyvex Performance Materials to Supply Carbon Nanotube Composites to Outerlimits Offshore Powerboats
• Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute embedded nanotube array sensor and method of making a nanotube polymer composite that can sense its own condition.
• Transparent carbon nanotube heating elements for use in plastic and ceramic window panes that may be used in motor vehicles, locomotives, or aircraft.
• A roll to roll process for making RFID tag
• Massachusetts Institute of Technology sensor array able to detect single molecules emanating from a single living cell that might find use in treating cancer
• CNT Catalysts for fuel production via Fischer-Tropsch process for making hydrocarbons
• LG Electronics Patents Nanofilters for Indoor Air Conditioning Units

So much for ‘nanotubes’! And forgive me for skipping carbon support structures used in nanoparticles!  This post is already too long!

Graphene
The other major platform for carbon nanomaterial is a thin sheet known as graphene.   Graphene, which is different from graphite in pencils, is a one layer thick sheet of carbon. While CNTs were first isolated and synthesized in the 1990s, graphene research is less than a decade old.

Graphene is on record as the highest surface area material and strongest known material yet synthesized, but most researchers cherish graphene for their electrical properties allow electrons to speed along faster than silicon-based transistors (and also absorb heat!).

Graphene is a likely candidate for high performance alternatives to silicon and precious metal based electronics. And based on the rate of progress and easier obstacles compared to CNTs (e.g. chirality of metal vs insulator versions of CNTs) and shape, I am more confident in graphene applications as the disruptive force for near term carbon nanomaterial applciations.

Recent highlights:

• Step towards mass graphene production
• IBM created the first graphene based transistor
• Stanford University develop new concept for low cost, flexible organic lighting-emitting diodes (OLEDs)
• Swedish and American researchers produce fully recyclable OLED screen
• Single-step technique produces both p-type and n-type doping for future graphene device
• MEMS micro-electro-mechanical systems based actuator devices have fundamental performance
• Rice U Develops Technique for Application of Graphene Materials and Hexagonal Boron Nitride Films in Microelectronics
• Graphene based Hydrogen Storage
• Another graphene based H2 storage (break DoE capacity targets)

———————————————————————————-

A Roadmap for 2010 – 2020

So how do we work towards making this next decade the launch decade for carbon nanomaterials?

First, we need to put aside the excessive hype and uninformed skepticism –  and be practical!

We do not need to over hype nanotechnology to have a serious conversation about its potential to change the physical and digital foundations of our major industrial sectors.

And we do not need to pooh-pooh – or roll our eyes – when we hear about nanotechnology’s first phase of development focused on additives, coatings and simple nanocomposites.

Nobody expects the commercialization of the most fantastical concepts (e.g. nano robots floating through your blood stream), we should focus on Phase One nanoscale engineering based on ‘tubes’, ‘particles’ and ‘sheets’.

The most practical way forwards is to focus on integrating nanomaterials into existing manufacturing techniques (rather than introduce novel nano-production systems).

Second, we need to engage the next generation of business entrepreneurs and leaders in pushing forward the mainstream campaigns for discussing the benefits and risks associated with nanomaterials.

And in this public awareness process we must recognize the limitations of having effective public or political conversations regarding carbon nanomaterials. It is a subject far off the radar of most people in the world, and it is not feasible to make any sound forecasts of what might happen by tapping current day opinions.

Most people are unlikely to see carbon as a source of great wealth creation and the foundation for new industries, anymore than people in 1950s could look at sand (silica dioxide)  and see it as the pillar material for the telecommunications revolution that occurred in the second half of the 20th century.

So we will need leaders to explain the vision, and framers and curators to explain our progress.

And if we are lucky, a successful business person who makes a lot of money on a breakthrough nanoproduct can’t hurt the image of the industry!

We need to close the knowledge and perception gap of what nanotechnology is… and isn’t.  And then we might be in a position to have an informed public debate on how much we should invest, and when.

For now, I hope that researchers continue to build bridges to the entrepreneurial community around the three foundations of carbon nanomaterials: nanotubes, nanoparticles and nanosheets (graphene)

Want to learn more…?   A few resources below..

Following Carbon on Twitter;

• http://twitter.com/nanowerk
• http://twitter.com/materialsviews
• http://twitter.com/nanopatents
• http://twitter.com/materialspeter
• http://twitter.com/explorenano
• http://twitter.com/kristinalford/nanotech
• http://twitter.com/tim_harper
• http://twitter.com/nonikatz
• http://twitter.com/nonikatz/nanotech
• http://twitter.com/thenanoclast
• http://twitter.com/AZoNano
• http://twitter.com/nanotechweb
• http://twitter.com/F_I_N_K
• http://twitter.com/nanosw
• http://twitter.com/MANCEF
• http://twitter.com/nanosw
• http://twitter.com/Nanotechnology/lists/memberships

My delicious bookmarks on carbon:

• http://delicious.com/garrygolden/carbon
• http://delicious.com/garrygolden/nano-materials

Interesting sites:

• Element Display
• LANL Govt Lab Periodic Table
• Many Faces of Carbon -
• PSU Nanotube page
• Foresight Institute
• Nano Products Inventory
• [Periodic Table reconsidered PDF])

Companies

• Bayer Materials -
• Unidym
• Graphene Solutions

Carbon’s industrial formats including pure carbon, carbon+oxygen, carbon+hydrogen:

• carbon
• carbon monoxide (CO)
• carbon dioxide (CO2)
• methane (CH4)
• propane
• ethylene (C2H4)
• acetylene (C2H2)
• benzene (C6H6)
• octane CH₃(CH₂)₆CH₃
• acetic acid (CH3COOH)
• C22
• Fullerenes C60

Stanford Nanoelectronics Group presents “Nanotechnology – Carbon Nanotube Electronics”

Carbon Nanotube flexible speaker

Fujitsu Laboratories New Carbon Nanotube Composite : DigInfo

Intel Science Talent Search 2009 – Philip Streich

From: Giant-Stroke, Superelastic
Carbon Nanotube Aerogel Muscles. Science, Vol. 323 Issue 5921, March 19, 2009.

Past, Present & Future of Craftsman & Industrialists
If we look to the past, we can see various stages of civilization that have been shaped by builders of things.

The first creators of things used natural materials (dirt/clay, wood, stone),  before turning to heat and reactive additives to transform ores into metals/alloys (copper/bronze/steel).  In the 20th century we turned to modern chemistry and hydrocarbon resources to synthesize polymers/composites (plastics), and then new tools for layering/etching patterns to develop micro-structured semiconductor materials (silicon, et al).

The materials technology view of social change is not the only lens or explanation of the past, present or future, but it seems to hold particular significance as we look to a near term future shaped by nanoscale materials design andbio-industrial processes.

Image credit: http://www.thp.uni-koeln.de/graphene08/ by Jannik Meyer

Forecast & Outlook:  The value chain associated with the human driving experience is about to be transformed – and within a decade I suspect most people will no longer see themselves as frustrated drivers but empowered Captains and navigators of complex transportation networks.

The coming age of digitally ‘connected cars’  and robotic (autonomous) vehicles will not take away control from humans, it will extend and expand human judgement, command and control in ways that we cannot currently imagine – or express as consumers!

Updating our Vision of Mobility
The global mobility sector lacks a clear vision and road map for change.  Innovative efforts must deal with the same challenge captured in Henry Ford’s anecdote: “If I would have asked my customers what they wanted, they would have said…a faster horse“.

Today’s drivers want a car that is safer but gets them around faster!  They want a vehicle is that is more powerful but clean and efficient!  But they are not demanding the scalable and cost effective means to those ends which include a more digitally connected car and a new ‘Captain’ role for the human.

So if consumers are not demanding this type of change, we might look at the emergence of new types of workers in the mobility sector!

A Look at our 21^st Century Automobile Workforce
One of the most valuable autoworkers of the 21^st century is sitting in front of a computer – programming code so digitally connected vehicles can talk to other vehicles about what is happening on the road.  Another autoworker is installing a new off-the-shelf radar system to detect obstacles on the road and warn the driver of hazards.

Another autoworker is designing a new vehicle category around a $1,000 small chariot aimed at short personal trips.   A former new car sales rep is making more money in aftermarket sales by selling software and hardware upgrades to personalize her clients’ electric vehicles.  An insurance agent is talking with a teenage driver explaining video-based driver assistance technologies that will help improve safety and performance behind the wheel.

This 21^st century auto industry workforce is creating value by making vehicles that are smarter via sensing technologies, more connected and aware via communication technologies, and more personalized via software and hardware upgrades.  They are creating value by empowering the human mobility experience.

But let’s not avoid confronting the transformative visions!

The end game is a world where connected cars do not crash… a world where drivers are fully engaged in understanding real-time situational analysis… a world where transportation network users know the full range of mobility options (owned or accessed, public or private)… a world where vehicles are capable of autonomously driving themselves in way that is safer and more efficient than anything based on human operators.

These are the logical extensions of all these efforts by the 21^st century mobility industry.  We cannot say with certainty how it will be different, only that the future of mobility will be different.

But what these autoworkers are NOT trying to do is making the human irrelevant.  These ‘connected car’ systems are not designed to replace the human driver, they are designed to promote the human from ‘driver to Captain’.

Profits in the Telematic Age of Automobiles

Profits (not technologies) are driving theses changes.  The days of high profit margins based on building a huge metal car to be sold on a car lot to some yet to be determined buyer ended long ago.   This model suffers from an inescapable problem of managing factory capacity utilization, failure of re-occurring revenues, demand for new full model updates, and global brand competition.  [See Ford Skateboard chassis post; GM manufacturing post]  The growth within the new car profit paradigm plateaued a long time ago…

When auto companies had trouble balancing their books via a factory production driven business model, they moved into consumer financing during the 1980s-90s.  It was good, for a while!  Now this platform is facing more competition for consumer financing and uncertainty in our regulatory landscape.

Time to step up the value chain…

Automakers are getting back to the fundamentals of rethinking mobility and building their next growth platform around the Age of Telematics.

Telematics include hardware, software and services that transform the driving experience.  This is the world of GM’s OnStar, Ford’s Sync and Kia’s uVo and thousands of yet to be named applications that will alter how we move within the world across vehicles that we own and access.

Telematic applications for ‘connected cars’ include: crash warning system, collision avoidance, point to point navigation, hands-free communication, adaptive cruise control, and automatic driving assistance systems (e.g. lane change assistance, braking assistance, et al)

The hope is a world that will be safer for drivers and pedestrians, less congestion via more transparent traffic flows, and easier access to transit solutions.

But this ‘connected car’ effort is also only the first step…

The end game is a vehicle that is so connected and situationally aware that it can operate autonomously without human drivers on public roads.

We all know this conceptually from Hollywood movies, but for those few people who have been actively tracking the development of these systems (e.g. DARPA Challenges; evolution of OEMs) we can now see a clear roadmap and path forward.

And as with most disruptive platforms, it is the human factors, not the technology factors that will determine how fast and successfully we make the transition.  The relevant question is not ‘when will it happen’, but ‘why should it happen’?

The great news is that ‘connected cars’ and fully autonomous vehicles preserve the human ego and are less threatening than one might believe…

The Value Chain of Mobility
There is a difference between ‘who is in charge’ versus ‘who is doing the grunt work’.  The naval Captain oversees the boat, but does not have hands on the wheel unless needed.  The student is in charge of solving the math problem but the calculator does the work.  The farmer who drives the tractor is still ultimately responsible for managing the complexities of planting and growing crops.

Technologies that ‘automate’ human tasks do not make humans irrelevant, they merely push humans up the value chain and allow us to eliminate the grunt work.

Today the value chain of our driving experience includes steering, accelerating, and braking.  Our primary lens for making all of our decisions is based on the very limited visual perspectives of looking forward, to the side and in our rear view mirror.   Despite our delusions of being attentive drivers, we actually see and know very little about what is actually happening ahead of us beyond our line of sight.

How much do we value these tasks?

I think we value talking on our phones and texting more than steering, braking and accelerating!

Despite our claims of loving to drive, in our daily commutes, we are obviously bored.

The real  value is not driving, but getting to our destination safely and as fast as humanly possible!  The problem is that we are seeing the limits of what is possible with humans!

Telematic technologies are going to transform the value chain of vehicle operation and navigation within congested traffic settings.

Tomorrow, we will have more ‘situational awareness’ information flows that include real-time data gathered from vehicles ahead on the road.  We will know to leave 10 minutes early if it means arriving on time, or leaving 15 minutes later if it means avoiding congestion.

We will be able to see alternative routes to our destination by tapping ‘top down’ live video images that show us what is actually happening ahead.  During congested traffic (not on open Montana roads) our ‘connected cars’ will tell us how fast to drive based on actual (optimal) traffic flow patterns and when to merge lanes for our exit.

The ‘connected car’ will be the guide, but the human will be the Captain making higher value decisions.

Nonsense, some may say.  Humans will never listen’ to their car – or take orders.

I say it makes perfect sense.  Just wait until drivers have that first experience of real-time information that improves their commute.  Only the actual experience itself will be able to change our assumptions of what is desirable based on advanced telematic systems.

I expect people will love their ‘connected cars’ even more than they do today.

And if you don’t expect West Texas libertarians to ‘listen to their cars’, then what about 16 year olds who are required by their insurance companies and incentivized by their parents?  What about 80 million digital native Millennials/GenY drivers?   Or the 80 million aging Baby Boomers who appreciate a collaborative relationship with their car?

These ‘smart’ ‘connected cars’ will make us better drivers.   And they will be our first step into the Captain’s chair.

They will not make us irrelevant; they will simply push the human further up the command and control ladder.

Ok, Mr Futurist!  When is this going to happen?

It seems that every luxury car on the market is offering ‘assistive parking’ and driver crash warning systems.  And the 2010 Ford Taurus is the first mainstream car equipped with adaptive cruise control.  Yet while the ‘connected car’ product ecosystem is already present within the market, the vision has not yet been clearly stated!

I suspect we won’t be able to have an honest public conversation about what is possible until 2013-2017 when ‘connected cars’ and adaptive cruise control become standard to our driving experience.

That is when I would expect we can see real life value in something as simple+radical as a horseless carriage, a flying metal plane, an ATM machine, ‘world wide computer network’ or handheld computer.

For now, let’s not even try to forecast fully autonomous cars on the highway until we are standing mid-decade and the next generation of autoworkers are actually in place.

Until then, I expect that notion of ‘robotic’ (autonomous) cars will be defined by fear and assumptions that ‘you want to replace me’ or ‘force me to give up control’.

So I am focusing on spreading the ‘Captain’ meme… and pointing out that ‘connected cars’ will not take away control, but extend it and empower the human in ways that we cannot currently imagine!

Forecast and Outlook:  The vision of personal power systems based on fuel packets and micro fuel cells is arguably the most disruptive concept of future energy systems in the world today.  And yet it remains completely off the radar of most conversations about the future of energy.

The disruptive vision of energy access to anyone, anywhere in the world is two-fold:

• Fuel – Anyone in the world can buy clean, low cost fuel as long as they they have access to general retail markets. [e.g. you can buy safe packets of fuel next to a pack of gum.]
  [*Fuels are developed via any/all primary resources from renewables to hydrocarbons. The main point here is that we are bringing fuels to the user, not to the power plant!]

• ‘Personal power plants‘ (e.g. micro fuel cells) sold via retail stores in all sizes: from those already embedded inside consumer products (e.g. phone), to a small portable $10 charger or a $100 appliance that can power your home. [Fuel cells convert hydrogen rich fuels into electrical energy] [Note: Bloom Energy just released its press on The Bloom Box, video!]

This is the vision, and not a snapshot of first generation products currently on the market!  And I am not saying that we should abandon our accelerated focus on new forms of energy production or battery storage!  Just realize that cheap renewable grid energy or better batteries does not solve  issues of access and portability.  We cannot forget about the role ‘fuels’ and power conversion devices play in the energy world!!

To provide energy access to anyone, anywhere in the world we must focus on increasing access to clean fuels and reducing the cost of fuel cell conversion devices.

Why micro fuel cells? Non-grid Access & Portability

Portable power systems are those that use fuels to produce electricity in a device that can be carried by an individual person.  This notion goes beyond today’s grid-dependent rechargeable battery model to include micro fuel cells that convert hydrogen-rich chemical fuels into electricity.

Portable power can also be extended beyond people to the transportation sector for electric vehicles powered by batteries and fuel cells, and for remote auxiliary power (e.g. telecommunication towers).

Think of portable power systems as tiny power plants rather than storage devices like batteries.  But there is a key difference in the deliver of fuels to the the user and the cost of converting that fuel into electricity…

Micro fuel cells by-pass the grid and bring fuels directly to the end user.  Hydrogen rich chemical fuels come to market as small packets (e.g. small liquid containers of methanol, sponges of solid hydrogen).  They are safe and operate at room temperature.  And most importantly, can be bought and sold over a retail shelf.  The ‘packet’ of fuel is bought and controlled by the user.    No monthly contracts.  If they want to pay a premium for renewable resource derived fuel packets, by all means!

Instead of relying on multi-billion dollar power plants, fuel cell conversion devices will be made using low cost manufacturing techniques.  They are silent, have no moving parts and can be manufactured to any size/scale.

Portable power systems mean no need to access the grid.  No need to fight with strangers over a wall socket in a café or airport.  No need to hang wires from your new thin screen television.  No need to have plugs built into your kitchen counter top because your toast and coffee maker do not need to be ‘plugged in’.  They are all simply refueled.

How do we get there?
So how do we ‘unplug’ and access electricity away from the grid?  By radically transforming the cost structure and business models associated with low cost packets of chemical fuels (e.g. methanol, hydrogen, et al) that can be sold over retail shelves, and micro fuel cells (energy conversion devices) that can be embedded in any and all objects or sold as stand alone micro power plants.

The road map to this future is largely dependent on our ability to translate our expanding knowledge of energy systems into nanoscale materials engineering and next generation manufacturing techniques.

Once major cost and production challenges are overcome, the marketplace dynamics for diffusion of micro fuel cells will not have to compete against the existing grid model.  It can grow as fast as the user side demands. (e.g. it is a low end disruptive strategy that does not have to battle the incumbent).

Ummm, what if there is no current consumer demand?

Why I am not worried that consumers do not care about micro fuel cells!!
We are all familiar the essence of the anecdote of Henry Ford: “…if I would have asked my customers what they needed, they would have said a faster horse.’

Portable power receives virtually no attention within the media because micro fuel cells are simply not a viable option today!  And most consumers can see no real world applications for energy beyond their current assumptions of what is possible with batteries and solar roof panels.

Most people have no idea how the internal combustion engine works, let alone the electrochemical principles of  a micro fuel cell or the disruptive business model of distributed energy production.

Micro fuel cells occupy the same spot of consumer irrelevance that was held by the need for a horseless carriage when ‘my buggy works just fine thank you’, or the benefits of an ATM machine when ‘I really prefer to have human contact with my bank tellers, thank you’…. or demand during the early PC age when ‘… I don’t need a ‘home computer’ because I don’t need to do calculations at home, thank you.’

I do not expect consumer demand will lead this transition… nor do I expect it will come from within the existing energy industry.

I am not worried about what first generation micro fuel cells or solid hydrogen sponges can do today.  I care where we think we might be in 2015, 2020, 2025.

Personal power systems will likely come from  startups and entrepreneurs intent on creating new markets, not trying to add band aids to existing platforms. And I am fully confident that enough energy entrepreneurs in the micro fuel cell world see this same low end disruptive vision of putting power plants into the hands of consumers and bypassing the grid.    I am also fully confident that chemical fuel providers will embrace and innovate to meet the high premium value and price placed on smaller bundled packages of energy.

Micro fuel cells (‘direct methanol’ and water activated powder versions) are expected to be brought to mass markets as batter rechargers soon after 2011.  And I suspect the real time horizon of disruptive change will occur 2015-2030.

It took us half a century to build out the electrical infrastructure of the 20th century, and I don’t expect it will be threatened anytime soon!

For now, the best we can do is explore the implications of this vision for personal power systems, and continue to monitor latest breakthroughs in materials science and the efforts of startups to bring micro power solutions to early adopter markets such as the military and back up power market.

Micro Fuel cell companies (in no particular order):

• MTI
• Ultracell Power
• Toshiba
• Jadoo
• Fujitsu
• Samsung
• Medis
• MyFC
• Bloom Energy
• CMR (UK)
• ReliOn
• DTI
• Angstrom Power
• Smart Fuel Cell
• Lilliputian Power Systems
• Violet
• Horizon Fuel Cells
• Protonex
• Hydra
• E-Cell
• Tekion
• Oorja
• GenPort

Extra Notes:
Embracing New Assumptions: The Hype vs Vision of Portable Power
All new disruptive technology platforms must walk through the stages of the ‘Hype Cycle‘, and confront our natural tendency to overestimate short-term change, but underestimate the long term potential.

I am selling the long-term vision, not the short-term hype of personal energy systems!   I am making a case that barriers can and should be overcome so that we can reap the benefits of distributed energy systems.   So rather than describe a snapshot of first generation micro fuel cells (as they exist today), let’s embrace and explore a new set of assumptions:

• Retail access to energy!
  The vision is: you can buy a packet of energy or micro power device next to a bar of soap or bag of rice whether you are in Walmart, Whole Foods or a tiny rural village in India. While visionaries try to put solar cells on every rooftop, don’t forget the role ‘fuels’ play in our energy system.
• We unplug everything!
  Electricity consuming products are embedded with micro fuel.  No more cords or plugs.  No more grid dependency.  You only need packets of fuel to keep your device running. (e.g. Every object contains within it a micro power plant that converts a fuel into electricity.)
• Fuel cell energy conversion devices!
  Chemical energy is converted into electricity via low cost fuel cells that consist of stacks of ‘tin foil’ like membrane sheets, rather than large metal turbines at multi-million dollar power plants.
  This means our electricity producing devices can be manufactured using industrial ‘ink jet’ printing machines and plastic casings, rather metal tooling machines.  And they are quiet and have no moving parts!

Extra Notes:
Disrupting the Era of Grid Dependency

For most of human history all energy was local.  Regionally available fuels (e.g. wood/biomass) were converted onsite (e.g. usually via fire) and controlled by the individual.   This was expensive in terms of labor and environmental impact (goodbye forests, goodbye clean air) but did not require organized capital investment or complex ‘energy companies’.

Then humans figured out a way to master electrons- and the age of electricity was born.  The only problem was that producing electricity was best handled in large power plants.  Thus the electrical grid was born.  And from that point forward access to electrical energy was based on a one-way stream of wires.  And humans became dependent on a ‘grid’ for their access to energy.

Let’s focus on the model: fuels such as coal and natural gas are discovered, exploited, refined, transported, heated to boil water that spin turbines that create electricity that travel long distances over wires to a wall socket.  Break that stream anywhere along the chain and the wall socket is useless.

Efficient? Hardly, more than half the energy is lost in the process.

Reliable?  Yes and no.  Even the .1% downtime of today’s modern grids cost tens of billions of dollars in lost economic productivity.

Cost effective?  Yes!

Valued by users? Absolutely!  (Unless you are talking about my portable gadgets!  Or if I don’t have access to the grid!)

The energy marketplace lesson?  Value and cost matter more than efficiency gains/losses.

Business models that make money beat the physics of energy loss.
(e.g. dear skeptics, stop trying to say hydrogen does not make sense because of laws of thermodynamics.  Can you add value is the only question you must ask!]

So let’s focus on how we can create value for users in a way that makes the centralized grid model irrelevant!  Rethink how we distribute fuels & convert them via distributed micro power plants!

The World Economic Forum (sponsor of the annual Davos gathering) has released a short set of scenarios highlighting broad implications around plausible outcomes for the ’Future of Future of Mining and Metals in 2030‘. WEF’s scenarios demonstrate the value of foresight and futures thinking for public and private sector leaders interested in exploring uncertainties about global change (and they cause flashbacks to my graduate school days).  The three scenarios were developed based on their ‘relevance, divergence and capacity to challenge thinking‘:

• Scenario One: Green Trade Alliance
• Scenario Two: Rebased Globalism
• Scenario Three: Resource Security

Why are scenarios for mining and materials resources important in the Digital & Knowledge Age?
If you were only to believe the evangelist voices of the ‘digital age’, you might mistakenly believe that de-materialization was the only overwhelming force of change in the world today.  But the truth is more sobering!   ’Things still matter‘ and our ability to master molecules and overcome the geopolitical challenges associated with mineral markets is critical for positive social and economic change for all nations.

Resources such as iron ore used to make steel, bauxite for aluminum, and precious metals used in electronics and appliances are incredibly important to the world economy and self-interest of national economies.   And while nanoscale materials design and bioindustrial assembly of hydrocarbon compounds are likely to help us overcome many resource constraints (e.g. broader substitutability options), there are significant challenges ahead for the mining and metals sectors as economic growth continues to expand the world’s global middle class.

Direct link Youtube

Learn more…

Related resources:

• Oil Drum has collected presentations on mineral and metals resources
• Nate Hagens, An umbrella view of resource depletion and human behaviour, PDF 148 slides, 8.7 MB

My posts: WEC Future of Global Finance Scenarios

http://bit.ly/9EAFyd

One Final Night Launch…
Last week I fulfilled a lifelong dream of seeing the Space Shuttle liftoff- in what will likely be the last night launch of the NASA Shuttle Program.  Now that the International Space Station is nearing completion NASA will retire the reusable Shuttle fleet in September, and move towards lower cost expendable rockets that might be developed by the private sector. But we can put the politics and economics of the space launch industry aside for now and just appreciate the glory of a very memorable night launch of STS-130 Shuttle Endeavour.

Part One: The Volume of Light
I stood among several hundred people pushed up against the water of the Indian River in Titusville, FL nearly 10 miles from the launch pad.  3, 2, 1 … ignition… liftoff: The rocket reaction of hydrogen and oxygen created a temporary sunrise that transformed a dark horizon into a pure white ball of light that faded into an orange and yellow glow. Seconds later the Shuttle pushed upward, roaring through two separate thick horizontal layers of clouds – lighting up each layer (yellow and orange) as it climbed into the dark morning sky!

There was a collective jaw-dropping ‘wow’, and likely a few tears of joy, shared among the strangers standing along the river.  We were watching a large metal truck and crew overcoming gravity by harnessing the  massive thrust from combining hydrogen and oxygen.  It is the ultimate mastery of molecules…

Part Two: The Rumble Sound Wave
Remember light travels faster than sound!   The entire light show goes without a soundtrack for nearly 50 seconds.  At 10 miles from the launch site it took nearly a minute (after ignition) for  the massive sound wave to roar across the Indian River and consume everyone standing in its path.  The rocket had bent the fabric of our still morning air and sent a ripple effect wave that pushed into your body…

And then as the sound wave passed, we watched in awe as the Shuttle headed north dropping her external booster rockets and breaking the bonds of Earth to deliver Tranquility and the Earth-observing cupola (videos below) to the space station.  The 4 minute show was over…

Collection of STS-130 Videos (Not my own thanks to a camera fail!)
YouTube has a wonderful collection of launch video recordings (including the sound wave) that are worth watching. Each has its own unique viewing angle – and reaction from the crowd.

Taken from Spaceview Park in Titusville
Taken by someone right near our location in Titusville… the bright sunrise and ripple sound wave and all…]
[Skip to minute: 1:10 - turn volume down low]

Taken from the VIP area at the apollo saturn v center at banana creek
[Amazing visuals... very close... but camera does not follow shuttle]

NASA STS-130 Space Shuttle Night Launch Endeavor sts130 2/8/10

[A Bright orange glow... starting at :59 min.  Very nice!   And at 2:00 minute you can hear the rumble of the sound wave that we all felt on the banks of the Indian River.  Remember it takes time for the sound to travel across the water! But when it arrives - there is nothing like it!]

STS-130 Night Shuttle Endeavour Launch / Titusville
[sound rumble at 1:38]

Space Shuttle Endeavor Launch (STS-130) on February 8th, 2010
[nice recording of sound rumble 1:30 min]

The ‘Official’ video – starts at 10/11 minute – very nice shots

Space Shuttle Launch – Endeavour STS-130 night launch Feb 8, 2010 4:19 am 11.8 miles away

[Sound rumble at 1:28--- wow]

Some great visuals – very close to the launch pad on the Cape – only 3 miles away!
Might be the closet shot of the launch…
‘…that feels good’ from sound wave ripple..

NASA STS-130 Space Shuttle Night Launch Endeavor sts130 2/8/10

[Sound begins at 2:00 min]

STS-130 Launch at NASA Causeway

Nice video from Banana Creek

From the Press Site

So what is STS-130 Carrying?   Tranquility and Cupola observation modules!!!

NASA Node 3 press day