Forecast & Outlook:  The value chain associated with the human driving experience is about to be transformed – and within a decade I suspect most people will no longer see themselves as frustrated drivers but empowered Captains and navigators of complex transportation networks.

The coming age of digitally ‘connected cars’  and robotic (autonomous) vehicles will not take away control from humans, it will extend and expand human judgement, command and control in ways that we cannot currently imagine – or express as consumers!

Updating our Vision of Mobility
The global mobility sector lacks a clear vision and road map for change.  Innovative efforts must deal with the same challenge captured in Henry Ford’s anecdote: “If I would have asked my customers what they wanted, they would have said…a faster horse“.

Today’s drivers want a car that is safer but gets them around faster!  They want a vehicle is that is more powerful but clean and efficient!  But they are not demanding the scalable and cost effective means to those ends which include a more digitally connected car and a new ‘Captain’ role for the human.

So if consumers are not demanding this type of change, we might look at the emergence of new types of workers in the mobility sector!

A Look at our 21^st Century Automobile Workforce
One of the most valuable autoworkers of the 21^st century is sitting in front of a computer – programming code so digitally connected vehicles can talk to other vehicles about what is happening on the road.  Another autoworker is installing a new off-the-shelf radar system to detect obstacles on the road and warn the driver of hazards.

Another autoworker is designing a new vehicle category around a $1,000 small chariot aimed at short personal trips.   A former new car sales rep is making more money in aftermarket sales by selling software and hardware upgrades to personalize her clients’ electric vehicles.  An insurance agent is talking with a teenage driver explaining video-based driver assistance technologies that will help improve safety and performance behind the wheel.

This 21^st century auto industry workforce is creating value by making vehicles that are smarter via sensing technologies, more connected and aware via communication technologies, and more personalized via software and hardware upgrades.  They are creating value by empowering the human mobility experience.

But let’s not avoid confronting the transformative visions!

The end game is a world where connected cars do not crash… a world where drivers are fully engaged in understanding real-time situational analysis… a world where transportation network users know the full range of mobility options (owned or accessed, public or private)… a world where vehicles are capable of autonomously driving themselves in way that is safer and more efficient than anything based on human operators.

These are the logical extensions of all these efforts by the 21^st century mobility industry.  We cannot say with certainty how it will be different, only that the future of mobility will be different.

But what these autoworkers are NOT trying to do is making the human irrelevant.  These ‘connected car’ systems are not designed to replace the human driver, they are designed to promote the human from ‘driver to Captain’.

Profits in the Telematic Age of Automobiles

Profits (not technologies) are driving theses changes.  The days of high profit margins based on building a huge metal car to be sold on a car lot to some yet to be determined buyer ended long ago.   This model suffers from an inescapable problem of managing factory capacity utilization, failure of re-occurring revenues, demand for new full model updates, and global brand competition.  [See Ford Skateboard chassis post; GM manufacturing post]  The growth within the new car profit paradigm plateaued a long time ago…

When auto companies had trouble balancing their books via a factory production driven business model, they moved into consumer financing during the 1980s-90s.  It was good, for a while!  Now this platform is facing more competition for consumer financing and uncertainty in our regulatory landscape.

Time to step up the value chain…

Automakers are getting back to the fundamentals of rethinking mobility and building their next growth platform around the Age of Telematics.

Telematics include hardware, software and services that transform the driving experience.  This is the world of GM’s OnStar, Ford’s Sync and Kia’s uVo and thousands of yet to be named applications that will alter how we move within the world across vehicles that we own and access.

Telematic applications for ‘connected cars’ include: crash warning system, collision avoidance, point to point navigation, hands-free communication, adaptive cruise control, and automatic driving assistance systems (e.g. lane change assistance, braking assistance, et al)

The hope is a world that will be safer for drivers and pedestrians, less congestion via more transparent traffic flows, and easier access to transit solutions.

But this ‘connected car’ effort is also only the first step…

The end game is a vehicle that is so connected and situationally aware that it can operate autonomously without human drivers on public roads.

We all know this conceptually from Hollywood movies, but for those few people who have been actively tracking the development of these systems (e.g. DARPA Challenges; evolution of OEMs) we can now see a clear roadmap and path forward.

And as with most disruptive platforms, it is the human factors, not the technology factors that will determine how fast and successfully we make the transition.  The relevant question is not ‘when will it happen’, but ‘why should it happen’?

The great news is that ‘connected cars’ and fully autonomous vehicles preserve the human ego and are less threatening than one might believe…

The Value Chain of Mobility
There is a difference between ‘who is in charge’ versus ‘who is doing the grunt work’.  The naval Captain oversees the boat, but does not have hands on the wheel unless needed.  The student is in charge of solving the math problem but the calculator does the work.  The farmer who drives the tractor is still ultimately responsible for managing the complexities of planting and growing crops.

Technologies that ‘automate’ human tasks do not make humans irrelevant, they merely push humans up the value chain and allow us to eliminate the grunt work.

Today the value chain of our driving experience includes steering, accelerating, and braking.  Our primary lens for making all of our decisions is based on the very limited visual perspectives of looking forward, to the side and in our rear view mirror.   Despite our delusions of being attentive drivers, we actually see and know very little about what is actually happening ahead of us beyond our line of sight.

How much do we value these tasks?

I think we value talking on our phones and texting more than steering, braking and accelerating!

Despite our claims of loving to drive, in our daily commutes, we are obviously bored.

The real  value is not driving, but getting to our destination safely and as fast as humanly possible!  The problem is that we are seeing the limits of what is possible with humans!

Telematic technologies are going to transform the value chain of vehicle operation and navigation within congested traffic settings.

Tomorrow, we will have more ‘situational awareness’ information flows that include real-time data gathered from vehicles ahead on the road.  We will know to leave 10 minutes early if it means arriving on time, or leaving 15 minutes later if it means avoiding congestion.

We will be able to see alternative routes to our destination by tapping ‘top down’ live video images that show us what is actually happening ahead.  During congested traffic (not on open Montana roads) our ‘connected cars’ will tell us how fast to drive based on actual (optimal) traffic flow patterns and when to merge lanes for our exit.

The ‘connected car’ will be the guide, but the human will be the Captain making higher value decisions.

Nonsense, some may say.  Humans will never listen’ to their car – or take orders.

I say it makes perfect sense.  Just wait until drivers have that first experience of real-time information that improves their commute.  Only the actual experience itself will be able to change our assumptions of what is desirable based on advanced telematic systems.

I expect people will love their ‘connected cars’ even more than they do today.

And if you don’t expect West Texas libertarians to ‘listen to their cars’, then what about 16 year olds who are required by their insurance companies and incentivized by their parents?  What about 80 million digital native Millennials/GenY drivers?   Or the 80 million aging Baby Boomers who appreciate a collaborative relationship with their car?

These ‘smart’ ‘connected cars’ will make us better drivers.   And they will be our first step into the Captain’s chair.

They will not make us irrelevant; they will simply push the human further up the command and control ladder.

Ok, Mr Futurist!  When is this going to happen?

It seems that every luxury car on the market is offering ‘assistive parking’ and driver crash warning systems.  And the 2010 Ford Taurus is the first mainstream car equipped with adaptive cruise control.  Yet while the ‘connected car’ product ecosystem is already present within the market, the vision has not yet been clearly stated!

I suspect we won’t be able to have an honest public conversation about what is possible until 2013-2017 when ‘connected cars’ and adaptive cruise control become standard to our driving experience.

That is when I would expect we can see real life value in something as simple+radical as a horseless carriage, a flying metal plane, an ATM machine, ‘world wide computer network’ or handheld computer.

For now, let’s not even try to forecast fully autonomous cars on the highway until we are standing mid-decade and the next generation of autoworkers are actually in place.

Until then, I expect that notion of ‘robotic’ (autonomous) cars will be defined by fear and assumptions that ‘you want to replace me’ or ‘force me to give up control’.

So I am focusing on spreading the ‘Captain’ meme… and pointing out that ‘connected cars’ will not take away control, but extend it and empower the human in ways that we cannot currently imagine!

‘Holy Grail’ vs ‘Disruptive’
Bloom Energy is helping to shake up the conversation about the future of distributed energy systems.  But let’s be clear…!!!   There is no Holy Grail solution for global energy market!  There is no silver bullet!

The spectrum of energy demands is too wide and varied across applications to have one single solution.  Disruptive energy systems exist for the demands of tiny sensors (ambient capture), smart phones (density), electric vehicles (low cost per weight), data centers (reliability), and grid energy (base load).  So let’s not get distracted looking for one solution!

More importantly, we should not confuse an aspirational industry ‘holy grail‘ for a genuinely applied ‘disruptive‘ energy system that could change the cost structure and business model innovation landscape in a way that avoids direct competition with incumbents.

Disruptive energy platforms are rare (e.g. steam engine, internal combustion engine, electrical grid) but we are likely to see more candidates emerge in the 21st century as we tap the power of energy entrepreneurs and advance our knowledge and engineering prowess in the areas of nanoscale materials design and bio industrial processes.

Energy systems are about the interaction of molecules – and both nano- and bio- give humanity new shapes to manipulate and control the interaction of light, electrons and molecules.  And within the energy sector, it is materials science that enables business model innovation (not the other way around)!  This is a materials science game!

Why Bloom Energy’s Distributed Fuel Cell Vision is Disruptive
Low cost, highly reliable distributed power generation systems are disruptive because they open up a new ecosystem for non-grid based power generation that can bypass the incumbents entrenched business model.

They are green in the sense that electrochemical energy conversion is more efficient and less polluting than combustion conversion.  But let’s be clear.  Being green is less disruptive than being cheap, reliable and distributed.

What makes an energy system disruptive?
Let’s look at two versions of solar.  Traditional solar farms try to compete directly against the grid without a chemical fuel.  Good luck!  Feels good, but it’s not disruptive.  You are at the mercy of grid access, price volatility of chemical fuels, and the regulatory frameworks of the utility sector.
The disruptive version is ‘distributed solar’ (e.g. rooftop via thin film solar) and is not connected to the grid, and creates new market demand rather than trying to replace or repair the old model.

Fuel cells convert chemical fuels (e.g. natural gas, oil, coal, propane, biofuels, hydrogen) into electricity.  They are silent, have no moving parts and can be manufactured using low cost scalable and modular assembly.

Electricity powers the future!  And fuels dominate the electricity power generation market.

Bloom Energy plays into the fuels market, but offers a non-grid solution for energy!

Bloom Energy’s success will of course be based on its ability to continue to apply innovative technology with great business leadership.   As to the skeptic points raised by Greentech Media’s Michael Kanellos (whom I respect and admire!) here are my notes on issues of:

• Hype: I hear you!  Of course, we’ve followed this since Ballard’s bubble in the late 1990s.  But you know that all technologies pass through the hype cycle!  Shouldn’t we compare notes on latest developments in labs and Board rooms and talk about an plausible roadmap that has commercialization within 2-10 years for first wave of products?!  Bloom is testing an actual product!
• Durability:  Fuel cells do not have to last 30 years. Stacks can be broken down, replaced, et al.  And the cost is per unit, not per power plant.  So we don’t need a product that lasts forever!
• Mass manufacturing: Fuel cells are modular, scalable units and I see no reason why manufacturing cannot be scaled?  Certainly a barrier, but not a show-stopper.
• Competition: ‘It will be GE, not Bloom Energy!’ — Great!  That is not a criticism.  I expect incumbents will play!  If Siemens, GE, Dow, DuPont, JC, Emerson (et al) get into the game, great news!
• Cost – Bloom’s CEO stated $3,000 price point – a fine place to start, but really, we need $300!   But it seems clear that low cost alternatives to precious metals are becoming commercially viable.

Watch: 60 minutes [video]

Watch CBS News Videos Online

Read similar posts

• http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/02/21/future-of-portable-personal-power-via-micro-fuel-cells/
• http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/01/14/ford-2012-focus-is-one-step-closer-to-skateboard-chassis-manufacturing-platform-and-end-of-combustion-engine/
• http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/01/28/gms-decision-to-build-electric-motors-could-shift-conversation-on-future-of-american-manufacturing/

Note:
I have followed Bloom Energy since it was formerly Ion America many years ago.  And I have been an evangelist for the disruptive market potential for fuel cells applied to portable and distributed power generation.   And to all the doubters of fuel cells or hydrogen I have responses to the dated and misguided criticisms related to storage, production, energy loss, et al.  Happy to answer questions in Comments section.

Additional Videos for more in depth interviews

The World Economic Forum (sponsor of the annual Davos gathering) has released a short set of scenarios highlighting broad implications around plausible outcomes for the ’Future of Future of Mining and Metals in 2030‘. WEF’s scenarios demonstrate the value of foresight and futures thinking for public and private sector leaders interested in exploring uncertainties about global change (and they cause flashbacks to my graduate school days).  The three scenarios were developed based on their ‘relevance, divergence and capacity to challenge thinking‘:

• Scenario One: Green Trade Alliance
• Scenario Two: Rebased Globalism
• Scenario Three: Resource Security

Why are scenarios for mining and materials resources important in the Digital & Knowledge Age?
If you were only to believe the evangelist voices of the ‘digital age’, you might mistakenly believe that de-materialization was the only overwhelming force of change in the world today.  But the truth is more sobering!   ’Things still matter‘ and our ability to master molecules and overcome the geopolitical challenges associated with mineral markets is critical for positive social and economic change for all nations.

Resources such as iron ore used to make steel, bauxite for aluminum, and precious metals used in electronics and appliances are incredibly important to the world economy and self-interest of national economies.   And while nanoscale materials design and bioindustrial assembly of hydrocarbon compounds are likely to help us overcome many resource constraints (e.g. broader substitutability options), there are significant challenges ahead for the mining and metals sectors as economic growth continues to expand the world’s global middle class.

Direct link Youtube

Learn more…

Related resources:

• Oil Drum has collected presentations on mineral and metals resources
• Nate Hagens, An umbrella view of resource depletion and human behaviour, PDF 148 slides, 8.7 MB

My posts: WEC Future of Global Finance Scenarios

http://bit.ly/9EAFyd

Creating a Culture of Little Brother Surveillance or Systems Thinking?

Forecast & Outlook:  The principles of ‘situational awareness’ based on perception, comprehensive and projection might soon support a wide range of applications that reach far beyond military operations and crisis response.   It is a user and outcomes-centric systems approach that could integrate anticipated advances in mobility, ‘smart’ infrastructure, learning systems, policy-making and business intelligence.

Situational Awareness systems might have what it takes to create demand for integrating a wide range of emerging disruptive technologies that include: low cost sensors, IT architecture (network/virtualization), video, robotic vision, gaming, 3D/geospatial modeling, physical and virtual augmentation, autonomous systems, simulation software, location based service, social web lifestreams (by activity/sentiment), and expert software learning systems.  Yes, this is a grab bag of buzzwords (forgive me!) but Situational Awareness (’dashboard’) platforms will require significant integration to make it useful for users in a networked world.

Managing Expectations & Changing Assumptions:
From Pilots to Drivers to Politicians to Businesses to Learners
Situational awareness will certainly raise red flags of ‘Big & Little Brother‘ by professional and part time conspiracy theorists, but as it becomes more understood and applied by individuals, I believe it will cultivate our capacity for increased awareness, mindfulness, and focus in an age of information distraction.  It will force learners to expand their collection of inputs, selectively identify their filters used in synthesizing and sense-making.  And help to mainstream systems thinking and the imperative of understanding structure, relationships and feedback loops in a globally interdependent world.

Yes, this is my wishful thinking!!  But we are in fact seeing a mainstream cultural transition between the ‘anonymous web‘ (Nobody knows I’m a dog!) and a more ‘social web‘ (’Most people know I’m a dog)!   Why shouldn’t web users continue to evolve alongside the web as it enters its next phase of being embedded inside the physical world?

To become as mainstream as today’s ‘social web‘ behavior and expectations, situational awareness (SA) systems will have to stretch beyond historical and current day applications that lead to potential confusion that it might be just a code word for advanced ’surveillance’.  And I am certain that more accessible concepts like ‘dashboards’ will emerge to properly frame and engage mainstream world!

Situational awareness is most commonly divided into three stages of awareness and behavior that allow us to see wider, deeper and further:

• Level 1 – perception of elements, relationships and structure in a given environment
• Level 2 – comprehension of the real-time situation
• Level 3 – projection and anticipation of possible outcomes into the future

The historical SA paradigm of perception, comprehension and projection is most familiar to military pilots (”lose sight, lose fight“) engaged in training and combat based situations.  In the recent years military leaders have extended SA approaches from pilot training to field troops navigating a combat theater of small networks distributed across remote rural regions and embedded inside challenging urban environments.   SA principles have also been embraced by crisis response teams seeking to create an information architecture for relaying real-time information across a temporarily disabled system.

Situational Awareness is the ultimate user-focused experience layer for infrastructure assessment and utilization.  Now what happens when we expand our definition of infrastructure to engage users and where  might SA principles be applied?  How might we imagine the positive decentralized benefits of situational awareness in non-military applications?

Six Areas to Explore:

1. Driving/’Connected Cars’
2. Political Transparency / ‘Civicware’
3. Geospatial / Real-time for Policy-making and Public Safety
4. Infrastructure Management
5. Learning Systems
6. Business Intelligence

#1 ‘Connected Cars’, Smarter Drivers
The most likely near-term application of situation awareness systems will experienced inside our cars! Instead of engaging military pilots, we will engage civilian drivers to increase the safety and flow of our roadways!

Situational awareness software is likely to play a major role in the changing driver experience.  Automakers are already beginning to integrate ‘sensing’ systems inside and outside vehicles based on sensors, radar, and video recognition that relay information to drivers and to other cars.  In this future our cars are collecting data and relaying information that will help drivers make better decisions on congested roadways.    This era of ‘connected cars’ is likely to make roads safer for drivers and pedestrians, and increase the flow of traffic on our highways. [Telematics examples: Ford Sync; GM OnStar; Kia UVO]

#2 Political Transparency / Civicware
Political transparency is a major driver of change in emerging economies and fledgling democracies.  Civicware systems based on situational awareness allow us to gather real-time, onsite information based on a distributed network that is resilient to attack or centralized control.  In this light, we can view the situational awareness role that Twitter played in Iran during political protests in 2009 as adding an SA layer of new inputs and on the scene conditions that could never had existed prior to the age of mobile social networks.

Another widely cited example of SA systems in political transparency is Ushahidi – an effort to build a mobile phone based infrastructure for ‘crowd-sourcing’ information that could prevent post election violence based on misinformation (e.g. groups rioting when in reality they are not!)   The Ushahidi Engine allows anyone with a cell phone to gather and distribute real time situation information via SMS, email or web or view aggregated data on a map or timeline.

#3 Policy Making / Public Safety
Geospatial visualizations are an emerging platform for communicating information based on place.  We can imagine a future in which social support services are based on a greater understanding of data sensed, synthesized, visualized and anticipated in communities afflicted by a wide range of events or socio-economic conditions.

In 2004 Christian Nold released an innovative map-based platform for gathering real-time information on emotional states.  His ‘biomapping’ projects can reveal where people are happy, hungry, angry, fearful or sad.    Imagine the public policy implications for supporting decision-making, policy analysis, and responses based on this bottom up data collection that can be conveyed on maps!

And let’s not forget about policies that support public safety and enforcement against violent crimes!

In recent years police agencies around the world have implemented gun location directional systems to help them gain real-time situational awareness in an area with detected gunfire.  These stories are widely reported in the media, but what happens when there are ubiquitious sensors and mobile phone ‘apps’ that can create an open distributed infrastructure for safety.  What happens when community members build their own layers of situational awareness?

What are the implications of lowering the cost of community safety oriented situational awareness systems?

#4 Smart Infrastructure Management
Situational Awareness is at the heart of emerging ‘smart’ infrastructure models that attempt to reveal real-time data and conditions within major infrastructure components for energy, transportation and water.  This allows infrastructure operators and users to make better decisions in managing resources and anticipating potentially disruptive events.  (e.g. electrical grid failures, peak demand, rush hour) [See PNNL Laboratory Situational Awarness for ’smart grid’)

#5 Lifelong Formal and Informal Learning
Situational Awareness systems go beyond mere ‘sensing and anticipating’—and can be applied as a tool for learning how to improve our performance in responding to complex systems.  SA systems that are user and outcomes centric might find a home in formal and informal learning applications!

Pilots will often train in mock environments to improve their ability to sense.  Field troops will train in mock situations that teach them how to protect themselves in hostile environments.

But how might we apply staged-learning and/or scenario based learning to improve learners’ ability to reveal their mental models that guide their responses.  How might SA layers expand our desire for more sensing inputs based on real-time information and a stronger understanding of structure, relationships and feedback loops within the environment?

#6 Business Intelligence and Capital Markets
What about the world of business?  Both small and large companies are operating inside increasingly complex market environments that are fragmented and shaped by events and rapidly changing conditions (many of which are not currently measurable).

We can already see growth in enterprise solution markets for situational awareness  systems such as ‘complex event processing’ and business intelligence ‘dashboards’ and decision support systems.  Real-time market situational awareness might indeed offer the biggest return on investment for SA systems.

What is Beyond?
Situational Awareness principles will likely have to be re-framed and re-packaged before mainstream audiences are likely to embrace and adapt systems designed to increase our ability to perceive, comprehend and anticipate.

We are probably a 5-10 years away from mainstream market users understanding and demanding early stage SA capabilities in their everyday world.   And 15-20 years away from more advanced systems and wider spread institutional adoption.

And I suspect transportation will be the first market followed by enterprise business intelligence applications.

So I suspect ’situational awareness’ might be the next big thing for Tweeting web geeks and industry pundits… in 2018?!!

I suspect life in a world of ‘smart, connected’ devices will push SA to the forefront as a way of managing life in this ultra-connected landscape.

In the meantime, I will be looking for the positive applications of SA systems and the potential of a learning culture of systems thinking based on awareness, focus and foresight.

Image Credit: Eyes at Williams College by dbking (Thank you!)
Flickr Creative Commons License Attribution 2.0 Generic

Situational Awareness Resources to Explore: Notable Projects:

• Global Incident Map https://www.globalincidentmap.com/
• BioWatch – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BioWatch
• UK SA Driving Program –  http://www.2pass.co.uk/awareness.htm
• Global Seismic Monitoring - http://www.iris.edu/seismon/bigmap/index.phtml
• Cisco-NASA Planetary Skin
• HP Central Nervous System for the Earth (CeNSE) (Thanks @wendyinfutures)
• IBM Smart Planet

Papers / Academic

• Knowledge Structures for Situational Awareness (Learner) http://www.dodccrp.org/events/2006_CCRTS/html/papers/220.pdf
• Situation(al) Awareness (SA) in Effective Command and Control  by Derek J. Smith http://www.smithsrisca.demon.co.uk/ http://www.smithsrisca.demon.co.uk/situational-awareness.html
• An Approach to Collaborative Sensemaking Process http://www.dodccrp.org/events/11th_ICCRTS/html/papers/101.pdf
• Inferring High-Level Behavior from Low-Level Sensors http://www.cs.rochester.edu/~kautz/papers/High-Level-140.pdf
• The Knowledge Structure of the Commander in Asymmetric Battlefield: The Six Sights and Sensemaking Process http://www.dodccrp.org/events/2006_CCRTS/html/papers/220.pdf
• USE OF TESTABLE RESPONSES FOR PERFORMANCE-BASED MEASUREMENT OF SITUATION AWARENESS http://web.mit.edu/aeroastro/www/labs/ASL/SA/sa.html

Companies

• SA Technologies – http://www.satechnologies.com/
• EchoStorm – http://www.echostorm.net/index.html
• Logos Technologies – http://www.logostech.net/index.htm
• Swarm Micro Aerial Vehicles  – http://www.swarmsys.com/index.html
• Raytheon Intelligence and Information Systems – http://www.raytheon.com/businesses/riis/

I’m looking for non-military situation awareness companies?!!! Any thoughts?

Forecast & Outlook: Our evolving knowledge base and capacity to design molecular manufacturing systems will be a primary driver of social and economic change in the decades ahead.  Bioindustrialism and the Nanoscale design of carbon-based structures are two ‘game-changing’ ideas ripe for capital investment and commercial applications. Properly harnessed, carbon bonds are our best eco-friendly building block for improving quality of life and wealth creation in the next century!

Carbon Capitalists of the World Unite!  It is time to move beyond today’s politically and emotionally-charged ‘climate & carbon’ conversation and move towards something more constructive based on bigger ideas, not bigger battles.

The problem isn’t the gap between ‘OECD’ vs ‘Non OECD’ national interests.  The problem is the gap between what many people ‘want to do’ versus what we are able to do based on our current industrial and energy paradigms.

Instead of demonizing carbon we should be embracing it around bigger ideas that remain off the radar of activists, politicians and most business leadership.   We need to make the foresight case that in this century no molecule will be more important than carbon as a source of wealth creation and platform for uplifting the quality of life of people, planet and profits.

Carbon Capitalists of the World Unite… around Bio & Nano!
Capital capitalists are builders not bankers.  There is minimal value created via fees or trading schemes based on carbon pricing mechanisms.  True carbon capitalists see carbon as a resource for building added value products like biomaterials and biofuels.

Carbon capitalists transform the conversation by expanding the marketplace beyond CO2 trading into an industrial and energy era defined by carbon+hydrogen chains assembled for biomaterials and bioenergy, and/or carbon+carbon or carbon+metals for industrial catalysts and high performance materials. 

Carbon capitalists are those people focused on reinventing the physical world and consciously evolving our global industrial paradigms around two 21^st century platforms for prosperity: bio-based industrial processes and nanoscale materials engineering.

Bio Industrialism

The first ‘leap’ for Carbon Capitalists to make is from chemistry to biology.

The great industries of the last century emerged from advances in chemical engineering and materials processing.  Thebirth of modern industries including pharmaceuticals, polymers, to semiconductors were all based on new ‘chemical industrial’ paradigms.  The consumer economy exists only because we have created abundance via synthetic (not naturally occurring) materials.  The ‘information age’ exists only because we created materials that could manipulate electrons and photons.  So your iPhone is as much a triumph of chemical engineering as it is software engineering.

Chemistry is not going away, in fact, its role in the ‘nano’ age is likely to evolve in ways we cannot imagine.  But there is a ‘new kid on the block’ that is capable of changing our industrial base.

Bio Industrialism is a broad concept for any goods (or services) delivered via a biological process or byproducts (e.g. biological agents for low cost pharmaceuticals, algae or cellulosic based biofuel production, et al).   So if chemistry helped give birth to many of our largest 20^th century industries, it is biology that will likely to be the platform for new industries in the 21^st century.  We will explore these new industries in future posts!

[Related fields and concepts: synthetic biology, bio-energy, bio-materials, biologics (biopharmaceuticals), biomechantronics, biomimcry, genomics, proteomics, bioplastics, ‘green chemistry’, biocatalysis, bioimaging, biosensors, et al]

Industrial Age of Nanoscale Materials (From ‘micro’ to ‘nano’)

The second industrial paradigm ‘leap’ is based on a new scale for materials design.  We have reached a plateau in our performance properties of ‘microscale’ (millionth of meters) design to ‘nanoscale’ (billionth of meters) engineering in which we control precise formation of molecules to yield entirely new performance properties of basic elements.

The nanoscale era of materials design redefines what we think of as a ‘resource’.  In this future carbon-carbon bonds can be designed to perform on par with higher cost precious metals.   In this future ‘carbon’ emissions can be re-assembled (and resold in the marketplace) with hydrogen bonds using the metabolism of algae.

Nanotechnology is often sold around more futuristic concepts like ‘nanobot’ machines floating through your bloodstream.  But the near term future is much more sober.

‘Phase One’ for nanoscale materials engineering is based on materials design using: carbon nanotubes, nanoparticles and nanosheets (graphene) in a range of applications from energy production and storage and conversion, high strength composites for light weight airplanes, cars and  textiles, to new ways of building electronic devices from carbon (instead of silicon).

Hype Warnings & Core Assumptions

I want to be clear about my message!  Professional futurists often warn audiences: ‘avoid the mistake of overestimating the amount of change likely to happen in the short term, but avoid a bigger mistake of underestimating how much change might happen in the long-term.’

Today it is easy to dismiss ‘nano’ and ‘bio’ as too futuristic so I want to be clear about two assumptions that I hold quite comfortably at the same time:

1. Neither of these industries (Bio & Nano) will be ‘big’ anytime soon
   Real GDP growth over the next two decades will likely come from old industrial activities (e..g iron-ore/steel, geo-extraction, et al).   Both ‘bio’ and ‘nano’ related industrial activities are operating at early stages of development, and are likely to favor the incumbent platforms in the short-term before they are able to supplant them.  In other words, the first wave of commercialized nanostructured materials (coatings, nano-tubes/particles, et al) are likely to improve performance of old micro-structured materials in the short term.

   So we must adjust our expectations about how fast these industries can grow!   But avoid making the mistake of waiting too long to start as we think of skeptics who dismissed the case for ‘synthetic plastics’ and ‘electronics’ in the 1950s and the ‘Internet’ in the 19990s!

2. Both of these industries will dwarf all historical ‘industries’ known to man
   In the long term, bioidustrialism and nanoscale engineering profits will surpass any and all economic values created by industries that exist today.  They are emerging at the exact right time – as billions of people transition into new demographic phases (e.g. aging) and socio-economic levels (e.g. middle class).  And their impacts are likely to be felt across all industrial sectors from energy, human health/wellness, military, transportation, information technology, et al.

So let’s be clear!

I’m not ‘hyping’ bioindustrialism or nanotechnology in the short term!!  I am trying to open a door for two platforms of wealth creation in the 21st century.

From the standpoint of the ‘carbon conversation’ we need to move forward around bigger ideas, not bigger battles. Bioindustrialism and Nanotechnology are big ideas!

Upcoming posts:

In my next ‘carbon capitalism’ post I will look at companies redefining our industrial base by tapping the power of carbon molecules!

Suggested Readings:

OECD report: The Bioeconomy to 2030 report is available at www.oecd.org/futures/bioeconomy/2030.

The Carbon Age – by Eric Roston http://www.ericroston.com/

Hans Rosling takes us on another data-driven journey looking at past, present and future with a special focus on the  social and economic re-emergence of India and China in the 21st Century.

Direct link to TED Talks Video Recorded at India’s first TED Conference

TED Talk – Hans Rosling 2006

TED Talk – Hans Rosling 2007

TED Talk – Hans Rosling 2009

Carbon-based nano-materials are on track to becoming a foundation for economic growth for the 21st century.  And the United States could be in the driver’s seat of this age of Carbon Capitalism and rethinking of carbon-based Industrialism!

Manufacturing Eras: Silicon to Carbon
If the 20th century economic revolution of computer-based information technologies was shaped by humankind’s ability to manipulate silicon-based materials, the next fifty years of wealth creation and productivity gains will almost certainly be built upon the material foundation of carbon-carbon bonds.

Carbon nanotubes are long chains of carbon-carbon bonds that were discovered and synthesized in the early 1990s.  Their performance properties equate to a ‘holy grail’ of sorts for materials scientists and engineers.  Single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNTs) are more than 100 times stronger than steel and more flexible.  Mixing carbon nanotubes with plastics could lead to a manufacturing era of strong cheap materials to replace steel and aluminum used in aerospace – automotive industries and building construction.  Designing and building vehicles made of carbon nanotube (CNT) composite plastics would require less energy during manufacturing, improve vehicle fuel efficiencies through a much lighter chassis, and improve safety by reducing the crushing weight in a collision without sacrificing strength and protection.

Beyond tensile strength, carbon nanotube-plastic composite materials promise an era of plastic materials with electrochemical properties.  Depending on how the carbon bonds are aligned (e.g. chirality) they can behave like a conductive metal, or (if the bonds are turned in the opposite direction) nanotubes repel electrons.  Combine the two and you have a semiconductor that surpasses the performance of silicon and other precious metals.

Carbon nanotube plastic composites that conduct electricity would create tremendous value for manufacturers of airplanes, consumer electronics (e.g. thin flexible display screens) and the energy industry (e.g. plastic solar cells, batteries, fuel cells).

So what’s the problem?

Until now, scientists have had trouble mixing carbon nanotubes into liquids that are the foundation of industrial scale plastic manufacturing based on fluid techniques.  Carbon nanotubes are ’sticky’ and tend to clump up when dissolved into liquids that are used in making plastic products.

Now, Houston-based researchers at Rice University have advanced a method for dissolving large amounts of single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNTs) into a chlorosulfonic acid-based  solvent that is ‘compatible with high throughput manufacturing techniques.’ If we can continue to evolve methods for liquid-based manufacturing techniques that use the power of carbon nanotubes, the world could fundamentally re-write the 21st century Industrial Age.

Plastics and nanotubes derived from natural gas (or other carbon rich biomass) might someday compete with steel as the foundation for industrial materials manufacturing.   Large steel and aluminum plants could be replaced with smaller, less capital and energy intensive polymer-composite plants.   Emerging economies could set up advanced material manufacturing operations based on more cost effective hydrocarbons rather than iron ore and precious metals.

The economic and environmental benefits are enormous – and the potential revival of US composite manufacturing could help to reverse years of decline in traditional iron ore based US Industrial Belt economies that have been unable to compete against China.   These regions might find a new value proposition in the global economy by focusing on a era of manufacturing based on CNT-plastics.

YouTube: Carbon Nanotube fibre dissolving in chlorosulfonic acid
Matteo Pasquali’s group at Rice University

Image credit: Wikimedia (Carbon Nanotube) CC License

Links to story on Nanowerk

How much change might we expect in the balance of global economic power over the next ten years?  How might financial markets evolve alongside the dramatic geopolitical market transition occurring between the dominant Western consumer economies of the 20th Century and the rapidly rising Asian consumer economies of the next century?

Over the past year, the World Economic Forum (sponsor of the annual Davos Meeting) has been exploring key drivers and potential outcomes for the future of global financial markets and government institutions.  Follow this link for a wealth of resources or get started by watching this 8 minute video exploring four financial market scenarios: Financial Regionalism; Fragmented Protectionism; Re-engineered Western-centrism; and Rebalanced Multilateralism

Learn more here

Downloads:
“The Future of the Global Financial System: A Near-Term Outlook and Long-Term Scenarios.”
“The Future of the Global Financial System” [PDF 12 MB]

US Army.mil Flickr/CC License

How do we enable the US military to shift its thinking about defense and security, and accelerate civilian commercialization of technology systems that could reboot the US economy?

The US Military continues to evolve through its decades long transition from a Cold War military force to one that is better suited for the geopolitical realities of the 21^st century.  Last week President Obama, Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Senate leaders were successful in making the case for a symbolic phase transition of military spending by cutting out $1.7 billion for another round of F-22 jet fighters.  Their vision is to move beyond the past Cold War era of weapon systems designed for big battle fields and superpower conflicts, towards systems designed for a more uncertain world that is more geopolitically fragmented.  The key to changing how we invest in defense systems will, of course, rest on our ability to change mindsets of defense contractors and politicians focused on preserving jobs associated with the Cold War era model.

And, without ignoring the very serious issues of our ‘Military Industrial Complex’ [Video of Eisenhower's Final Speech, Warning, 1961], how do we best harness this defense industry paradigm shift to improve civilian life and facilitate more positive economic and cultural globalization.

Obama and Gates might get us further along by injecting a new vision of military-civilian technology transfer systems that could enable a renaissance in US manufacturing and software-hardware systems design between 2010-2025:

• Autonomous Vehicle Systems (e.g. DARPA Grand Challenge, UAVs/Micro-’Drones’)
• Sensor network-based Situation Awareness Systems
• Personal Assistant Software (e.g. CALO Project spin-off Siri Personal Assistant) including real-time language translation
• Functional Telepresence (e.g. tele-robotic surgery, haptic-based immersive control systems)
• Energy- Portable Power (e.g. micro-fuel cells), Bio-energy Production (e.g. algae) and Distributed Power Generation
• Distributed Information System Architecture
• Infrastructure Management / Supply Chain Management
• Exoskeleton Systems that augment human bio-mechanical movement (e.g. Aging populations; Factory workers)

These are a few of the powerful, forward-looking ideas that could give birth to new industries capable of replacing Cold War era job losses with 21st century civilian sectors.  And they are all ripe for first stage commercialization during the next decade.

So which companies should we be watching?

First, it is important to note that I am much more interested in civilian applications of non-weapon systems, than trying to embrace or advocate for the development of next generation killing machines.  I would prefer to see President Eisenhower’s speech played weekly in between acts on American Idol until our self-celebrity obsessed citizenry wakes up- and demands for greater transparency to Congress and Defense Contractors.  Yes we should make sure that we present a balanced picture of the role defense plays in our budget spending and guiding our industrial base (good, bad and ugly!)

And I am not naive to believe that the beginning of this post-Cold War era military is a clean break from the old ways of our Congressional Military Industrial Complex.  Large, powerful defense contractors will continue to lobby for, and receive, billions of dollars (e.g. F-35 Joint Strike Fighter) in weapon systems capable of causing death and destruction.

Yet I do believe that traditional defense companies are capable of developing non-weapon systems that bring tremendous value to the world beyond warfare.  And that entrepreneurs can leverage the foresight and early stage investments of military funding resources to commercialize private sector products and services.

A few examples to note:

• Lockheed Martin is investing in Ocean Thermal Energy conversion and next generation information system architectures for government services
• Boeing is involved in research and development of algae-derived aviation fuels
• Raytheon is working develop an advanced wireless communication  system MAINGATE, and advanced nanotechnology-based thermal materials used in electronic, and industrial waste recapturing systems based on carbon eating algae
• Honeywell and Rockwell Automation are working to evolve how we manage building energy systems and infrastructure

There are a number of smaller, more engineering oriented companies developing systems that could help reinvent major US industry sectors.

• Force Protection is developing light weight high strength materials that could be used in vehicles and product design
• iRobot and AeroVironment are advancing autonomous vehicle systems that could change how we look at transportation systems.
• Siri is a ’soon to be launched’ Personal Assistant software program built upon early military research from the CALO Projec

What non-weapon applications do you believe could be leveraged in the private sector world between 2010-2025?  (Comment below!)

Related posts:

• Inside the World of Bad-ass Military Projects
• TED Talk – Peter Singer – Robots in War
• DARPA looking for wicked cool researchers for advanced study group