Professional Futurists who work with clients are familiar with the perception pitfalls associated with forecasts and scenarios that deal with the impact of technology.

This is why framing forecasts and scenarios around demographics (life stage), cultural (lifestyle) and market structure transitions are more digestible frameworks for getting clients to challenge their assumptions about transformational changes to their business models.

Why is technology a hard pill to swallow?  A combination of reasons: risks of early adoption, costs associated with implementation and support, lack of  pull demand from existing consumers, accepting small market share profits even with fast growth prospects (et al).   And let’s not forget that technology solutions are sold by deeply embedded vendors who have their own varying self-interests in transitioning old vs new platforms.

A less eloquently stated reason is that the theme of technology (especially ‘digital’ and ‘web’ technology) just scares most people.  There is often a strong negative emotional/gut response to new technology platforms.  Most people do not get digital technology and struggle to see potential for long term value creation.  Of course, technology on its own is never a solution, and it is too often oversold by Tech Evangelists!

And for most audiences technology seems too gimmicky…  too young and hip… too transparent and invasive… or too time consuming.   These are legitimate barriers for getting audiences to see real world applications for customers.

Technology should always be placed in the context of culture, market and regulatory structures.  Without this broader context it will always be easier to roll our eyes than to probe, explore and seek to understand.

To get us to this place of understanding the broader social context of technology we need framers like Kevin Kelly to bring context to the story of technology – past, present and future.

Kevin Kelly:Technology & Foresight Foundations of Social Change & Systems Thinking
Kevin Kelly has spent decades preparing a script to tell  the epic story of technology’s past, present and future.  As a Former Editor of the Whole Earth Review and past Editor of Wired he holds a very unique perspective that spans our recent historical era where technology has become a widely perceived mechanism (and ‘agent’) of change.

I prefer to see Kelly as an informed observer as much as he is arguably a techno-optimist.  And I believe his passion for understanding technology is rooted in the two pillars of foresight/futures studies: social change and systems thinking.

Social Change frameworks (e.g. Progress, Power & Conflict, Evo-Devo, et al) help us understand change and develop the right models for forecasting possible outcomes.  Systems thinking forces us to understand structure and relationships that shape feedback loops (e.g. vicious vs. virtuous) often associated with non-linear change.  Kelly is quick to point out the non-linear aspects of change shaped by emerging technology platforms.

Here are a few of Kevin Kelly’s public lectures on technology.  Each is a variation of his central exploration in understanding the fundamental nature of technology and life in the universe:

TEDxAmsterdam, 2010

Kevin Kelly: Predicting the next 5,000 days of the web
2007 EG conference

Let’s go back further… before TED had exploded in the mainstream world– and we see many of the same messages (and one-liners) that continue to shape Kevin Kelly’s investigation into the human and universal relationship with technology.

Kevin Kelly: How does technology evolve? Like we did

And finally a recent interview on historical foundations of Wired:

Kelly’s current blog Technium

Image Source: Porfolium Flickr Creative Commons

Forecast & Outlook:  The value chain associated with the human driving experience is about to be transformed – and within a decade I suspect most people will no longer see themselves as frustrated drivers but empowered Captains and navigators of complex transportation networks.

The coming age of digitally ‘connected cars’  and robotic (autonomous) vehicles will not take away control from humans, it will extend and expand human judgement, command and control in ways that we cannot currently imagine – or express as consumers!

Updating our Vision of Mobility
The global mobility sector lacks a clear vision and road map for change.  Innovative efforts must deal with the same challenge captured in Henry Ford’s anecdote: “If I would have asked my customers what they wanted, they would have said…a faster horse“.

Today’s drivers want a car that is safer but gets them around faster!  They want a vehicle is that is more powerful but clean and efficient!  But they are not demanding the scalable and cost effective means to those ends which include a more digitally connected car and a new ‘Captain’ role for the human.

So if consumers are not demanding this type of change, we might look at the emergence of new types of workers in the mobility sector!

A Look at our 21^st Century Automobile Workforce
One of the most valuable autoworkers of the 21^st century is sitting in front of a computer – programming code so digitally connected vehicles can talk to other vehicles about what is happening on the road.  Another autoworker is installing a new off-the-shelf radar system to detect obstacles on the road and warn the driver of hazards.

Another autoworker is designing a new vehicle category around a $1,000 small chariot aimed at short personal trips.   A former new car sales rep is making more money in aftermarket sales by selling software and hardware upgrades to personalize her clients’ electric vehicles.  An insurance agent is talking with a teenage driver explaining video-based driver assistance technologies that will help improve safety and performance behind the wheel.

This 21^st century auto industry workforce is creating value by making vehicles that are smarter via sensing technologies, more connected and aware via communication technologies, and more personalized via software and hardware upgrades.  They are creating value by empowering the human mobility experience.

But let’s not avoid confronting the transformative visions!

The end game is a world where connected cars do not crash… a world where drivers are fully engaged in understanding real-time situational analysis… a world where transportation network users know the full range of mobility options (owned or accessed, public or private)… a world where vehicles are capable of autonomously driving themselves in way that is safer and more efficient than anything based on human operators.

These are the logical extensions of all these efforts by the 21^st century mobility industry.  We cannot say with certainty how it will be different, only that the future of mobility will be different.

But what these autoworkers are NOT trying to do is making the human irrelevant.  These ‘connected car’ systems are not designed to replace the human driver, they are designed to promote the human from ‘driver to Captain’.

Profits in the Telematic Age of Automobiles

Profits (not technologies) are driving theses changes.  The days of high profit margins based on building a huge metal car to be sold on a car lot to some yet to be determined buyer ended long ago.   This model suffers from an inescapable problem of managing factory capacity utilization, failure of re-occurring revenues, demand for new full model updates, and global brand competition.  [See Ford Skateboard chassis post; GM manufacturing post]  The growth within the new car profit paradigm plateaued a long time ago…

When auto companies had trouble balancing their books via a factory production driven business model, they moved into consumer financing during the 1980s-90s.  It was good, for a while!  Now this platform is facing more competition for consumer financing and uncertainty in our regulatory landscape.

Time to step up the value chain…

Automakers are getting back to the fundamentals of rethinking mobility and building their next growth platform around the Age of Telematics.

Telematics include hardware, software and services that transform the driving experience.  This is the world of GM’s OnStar, Ford’s Sync and Kia’s uVo and thousands of yet to be named applications that will alter how we move within the world across vehicles that we own and access.

Telematic applications for ‘connected cars’ include: crash warning system, collision avoidance, point to point navigation, hands-free communication, adaptive cruise control, and automatic driving assistance systems (e.g. lane change assistance, braking assistance, et al)

The hope is a world that will be safer for drivers and pedestrians, less congestion via more transparent traffic flows, and easier access to transit solutions.

But this ‘connected car’ effort is also only the first step…

The end game is a vehicle that is so connected and situationally aware that it can operate autonomously without human drivers on public roads.

We all know this conceptually from Hollywood movies, but for those few people who have been actively tracking the development of these systems (e.g. DARPA Challenges; evolution of OEMs) we can now see a clear roadmap and path forward.

And as with most disruptive platforms, it is the human factors, not the technology factors that will determine how fast and successfully we make the transition.  The relevant question is not ‘when will it happen’, but ‘why should it happen’?

The great news is that ‘connected cars’ and fully autonomous vehicles preserve the human ego and are less threatening than one might believe…

The Value Chain of Mobility
There is a difference between ‘who is in charge’ versus ‘who is doing the grunt work’.  The naval Captain oversees the boat, but does not have hands on the wheel unless needed.  The student is in charge of solving the math problem but the calculator does the work.  The farmer who drives the tractor is still ultimately responsible for managing the complexities of planting and growing crops.

Technologies that ‘automate’ human tasks do not make humans irrelevant, they merely push humans up the value chain and allow us to eliminate the grunt work.

Today the value chain of our driving experience includes steering, accelerating, and braking.  Our primary lens for making all of our decisions is based on the very limited visual perspectives of looking forward, to the side and in our rear view mirror.   Despite our delusions of being attentive drivers, we actually see and know very little about what is actually happening ahead of us beyond our line of sight.

How much do we value these tasks?

I think we value talking on our phones and texting more than steering, braking and accelerating!

Despite our claims of loving to drive, in our daily commutes, we are obviously bored.

The real  value is not driving, but getting to our destination safely and as fast as humanly possible!  The problem is that we are seeing the limits of what is possible with humans!

Telematic technologies are going to transform the value chain of vehicle operation and navigation within congested traffic settings.

Tomorrow, we will have more ‘situational awareness’ information flows that include real-time data gathered from vehicles ahead on the road.  We will know to leave 10 minutes early if it means arriving on time, or leaving 15 minutes later if it means avoiding congestion.

We will be able to see alternative routes to our destination by tapping ‘top down’ live video images that show us what is actually happening ahead.  During congested traffic (not on open Montana roads) our ‘connected cars’ will tell us how fast to drive based on actual (optimal) traffic flow patterns and when to merge lanes for our exit.

The ‘connected car’ will be the guide, but the human will be the Captain making higher value decisions.

Nonsense, some may say.  Humans will never listen’ to their car – or take orders.

I say it makes perfect sense.  Just wait until drivers have that first experience of real-time information that improves their commute.  Only the actual experience itself will be able to change our assumptions of what is desirable based on advanced telematic systems.

I expect people will love their ‘connected cars’ even more than they do today.

And if you don’t expect West Texas libertarians to ‘listen to their cars’, then what about 16 year olds who are required by their insurance companies and incentivized by their parents?  What about 80 million digital native Millennials/GenY drivers?   Or the 80 million aging Baby Boomers who appreciate a collaborative relationship with their car?

These ‘smart’ ‘connected cars’ will make us better drivers.   And they will be our first step into the Captain’s chair.

They will not make us irrelevant; they will simply push the human further up the command and control ladder.

Ok, Mr Futurist!  When is this going to happen?

It seems that every luxury car on the market is offering ‘assistive parking’ and driver crash warning systems.  And the 2010 Ford Taurus is the first mainstream car equipped with adaptive cruise control.  Yet while the ‘connected car’ product ecosystem is already present within the market, the vision has not yet been clearly stated!

I suspect we won’t be able to have an honest public conversation about what is possible until 2013-2017 when ‘connected cars’ and adaptive cruise control become standard to our driving experience.

That is when I would expect we can see real life value in something as simple+radical as a horseless carriage, a flying metal plane, an ATM machine, ‘world wide computer network’ or handheld computer.

For now, let’s not even try to forecast fully autonomous cars on the highway until we are standing mid-decade and the next generation of autoworkers are actually in place.

Until then, I expect that notion of ‘robotic’ (autonomous) cars will be defined by fear and assumptions that ‘you want to replace me’ or ‘force me to give up control’.

So I am focusing on spreading the ‘Captain’ meme… and pointing out that ‘connected cars’ will not take away control, but extend it and empower the human in ways that we cannot currently imagine!

Bloom Energy CEO KR Sridhar gives a wonderful 101 style interview with Fresh Dialogues in which he explains the fundamentals of fuel cell energy and why it is a very smart bet on the future of energy across electricity power generation and vehicle electrification.

Fuel cell based Power Generation: Bridge & End Destination:
Despite the failure of fuel cells to live up to the  ‘Hype’ Phase of expected growth created during the DotCom Bubble, the electrochemical platform continues to evolve and remains a viable 21st century platform for cost effective and clean energy applications for portable power (micro- and transportation) and stationary electricity production.

A few points to note…

As is true with any new disruptive technology platform it will take time to develop and unfold.  It is important not to oversell the speed of change, yet avoid underselling the transformational power of fuel cells to change our world in the long-term!

And while Bloom is not the first company to bring stationary fuel cells to the market, it is the first to garner this much attention!  And awareness of what is possible with distributed power generation is very critical to the industry’s growth!

What makes Bloom Energy’s fuel cell important is that it can better utilize our dominant primary input of hydrocarbon fuels (mainly natural gas) for electricity generation, yet remain relevant to future ‘clean chemical fuels’ (e.g. hydrogen, hydrogen rich biofuels and synfuels).

Sridhar understands the dynamics of energy market transitions and the role that fuels play in electricity production.  The company has wisely decided to ‘build a bridge‘ and a ‘future destination‘ around fuel cells.

Central Power Plant Combustion vs Distributed Power Generation Electrochemical Conversion
Sridhar explains the advantages of direct chemical fuel to electricity generation.  Today we use large centralized power plants that convert hydrocarbon fuels (e.g. coal and natural gas) via multiple steps: combustion conversion of chemical energy to thermal-heat energy (water/steam) to mechanical energy (turbine) to electrical energy.  Lots of energy loss there!  And it requires massive capital investments (that are ‘peak demand’ oriented) and operational costs for central infrastructure maintenance and control.  Oh, and then there are the costs associated with transmission disruption along the wire grid via intentional attack or accidental overload.

Stationary fuel cells take that same chemical fuel (prefer hydrogen rich natural gas delivered via pipelines or trucks) and convert the chemical energy via electrochemical reactions directly into electrical energy.  One step that requires no moving parts.  And it is done at a lower capital cost, and with less operational overhead.  There is less risk because the fuel is distributed locally and can be converted via an energy appliance.

Bloom is opening the door to smaller distributed power generation. Neither this one company nor today’s versions of fuel cell platforms are going to transform the world any time soon!  But the door is open and the public is now getting an important lesson in the market dynamics of distributed energy!

Battery vs Fuel cell?
A battery is only a storage device.  Fuel cells are power generators!  One stores energy, the other converts fuels.  For many reasons (e.g. cost, weight, uptime, portability, non-grid production, profit structure) fuel cells are a more desirable energy platform.  Batteries are very important, but they do not offer the same transformational potential to global energy markets.

Batteries can be used to support the grid, whereas fuel cells make the grid irrelevant.  That is a very simple but disruptive concept that could alter how people around the world access fuels and electricity.

Solar & Wind vs Fuel cells?
This role of fuels is often overlooked in discussions around the future of energy.  Solar and wind are largely ‘grid oriented’ sources of electricity (exception being ‘rooftop’ solar that is ‘distributed power generation’).  Solar and wind compete against dominant ‘chemical fuel’ markets like coal and natural gas.  And despite all the upsides of renewable photons and wind patterns, it is hard to compete with the energy potential locked up inside chemical bonds that are extracted from the ground, or assembled above ground via chemical or bioenergy engineering.

Fuel cells play directly into the chemical fuels market, and offer a more cost effective and cleaner way to convert hydrocarbons into electricity beyond the centralized power plant model.

Of course, we must evolve all energy systems!  It is not ‘either or’ – and no single energy system can be viewed as a ‘holy grail’ to our complex set of energy challenges!

Again, I’ll step off my futures soapbox.. here is Sridhar’s interview:

[via Fresh Dialogues]

Related posts:

• Why Bloom Energy Fuel Cells are Disruptive to Energy Markets
• Personal Power Systems might be the Biggest Story in the Future  of Energy

Additional interview with some more detailed explanation

The good news is that the perceived value of ‘games-based learning‘ and ‘social learning‘ is starting to gain mainstream traction as a way of reconciling and bridging the worlds of formal (institutional) and informal learning that stretches from learner experiences within schools and workplaces – to our activities at home and while we are within the physical world.

The bad news is that most conversations about ‘the future‘ simply extend present day notions of ‘games’ and ’social web’ experiences into the future – rather than explore new assumptions about how both might evolve in the years ahead.

In other words, the future of learning management systems is NOT World or Warcraft or Facebook!!  Learning inputs and outcomes will not be based on what we do on computers or game consoles (device orientation), it will be based on things we do inside a world where most things and places are networked and sensing (learner orientation).

Focusing on Grades vs The Journey’s Experience
In the following talk Jesse Schell explores the future of game based learning in a future world shaped by objects (products) and environments with embedded sensors, ubiquitous access to scalable cloud-based web services, and unified interfaces via voice/video/virtual agent-based experiences.

Schell explores how these emerging platforms mgiht build upon current day trends around games that integrate reality (not allow us to escape from it!) – fantasy football, hiking/geo-caching for treasures, and Weight Watcher ‘point systems’.   He imagines at the center of these games that engage us in the layers of our reality, will be a learner who can see all relevant data, understand system structure, and become more self reflective and accountable based on their actions!

He argues (or at least, my interpretation!!)  that we need to design games as life long learning systems centered on feedback loops of privately managed data sets that connect what we do with our outcomes (e.g. overweight because what I ate; ill-informed about a world issue because of what I have/haven’t read; I have bad teeth because I don’t brush long enough).   This notion builds upon the often cited work related to  ’Quant Self‘ or Quantified Self. [See resources below]

Schell’s vision (that I share!!) is that games and experience design supports the emergence of a culture of learning and a desire to genuinely improve ourselves!

How do we get there?  The learning system design shows you the path and tracks your progress – pointing out where you did well and where you need to improve your outcomes by changing your behavior!

One of my favorite paraphrased lines from Schell’s talk… ‘instead of giving out grades we should hand out experience points‘!

Absolutely!! Replacing snapshot static grades with pathway and apprenticeship style experience points?  Brilliant!

If we expect to teach people how to become life long learners, we must not give out snapshot grades and graduate them based on age, rather use apprenticeship style progress reports that show there is still much more to learn ahead!!!!

Moving forward?
First, we need to recognize the infancy stage of learning management systems and personal learning platforms that bridge informal and formal learning via games or social learner paradigms!  We are not there yet!  In fact, I’m not sure we even have an inspiring vision?!!

Second, we need to proactively address all the fear oriented assumptions related to the management of transparent lives in this ‘quantified self’ future scenario.

Leaders in the learning space might apply foresight and engage all stakeholders in discussions about emerging assumptions regarding identity management, transparency, and the value of personal data and feedback loops that connect our behavior with outcomes.  Otherwise, fear and confusion will shut down otherwise open minds.

Stepping off my soapbox… watch Schell’s video!!

(video via Kevin Fox’s blog, thanks!)

Other people to follow in this ‘quant’ self space:

• Kevin Kelley’s Quant Self Resource List is a great place to start;
• Alvis Brigis (Blog; Twitter)
• I have written on a similar evolution of learning systems based on the principles of situational awareness based learning via perception, comprehensive and projection – and the role media might play in learning!

‘Holy Grail’ vs ‘Disruptive’
Bloom Energy is helping to shake up the conversation about the future of distributed energy systems.  But let’s be clear…!!!   There is no Holy Grail solution for global energy market!  There is no silver bullet!

The spectrum of energy demands is too wide and varied across applications to have one single solution.  Disruptive energy systems exist for the demands of tiny sensors (ambient capture), smart phones (density), electric vehicles (low cost per weight), data centers (reliability), and grid energy (base load).  So let’s not get distracted looking for one solution!

More importantly, we should not confuse an aspirational industry ‘holy grail‘ for a genuinely applied ‘disruptive‘ energy system that could change the cost structure and business model innovation landscape in a way that avoids direct competition with incumbents.

Disruptive energy platforms are rare (e.g. steam engine, internal combustion engine, electrical grid) but we are likely to see more candidates emerge in the 21st century as we tap the power of energy entrepreneurs and advance our knowledge and engineering prowess in the areas of nanoscale materials design and bio industrial processes.

Energy systems are about the interaction of molecules – and both nano- and bio- give humanity new shapes to manipulate and control the interaction of light, electrons and molecules.  And within the energy sector, it is materials science that enables business model innovation (not the other way around)!  This is a materials science game!

Why Bloom Energy’s Distributed Fuel Cell Vision is Disruptive
Low cost, highly reliable distributed power generation systems are disruptive because they open up a new ecosystem for non-grid based power generation that can bypass the incumbents entrenched business model.

They are green in the sense that electrochemical energy conversion is more efficient and less polluting than combustion conversion.  But let’s be clear.  Being green is less disruptive than being cheap, reliable and distributed.

What makes an energy system disruptive?
Let’s look at two versions of solar.  Traditional solar farms try to compete directly against the grid without a chemical fuel.  Good luck!  Feels good, but it’s not disruptive.  You are at the mercy of grid access, price volatility of chemical fuels, and the regulatory frameworks of the utility sector.
The disruptive version is ‘distributed solar’ (e.g. rooftop via thin film solar) and is not connected to the grid, and creates new market demand rather than trying to replace or repair the old model.

Fuel cells convert chemical fuels (e.g. natural gas, oil, coal, propane, biofuels, hydrogen) into electricity.  They are silent, have no moving parts and can be manufactured using low cost scalable and modular assembly.

Electricity powers the future!  And fuels dominate the electricity power generation market.

Bloom Energy plays into the fuels market, but offers a non-grid solution for energy!

Bloom Energy’s success will of course be based on its ability to continue to apply innovative technology with great business leadership.   As to the skeptic points raised by Greentech Media’s Michael Kanellos (whom I respect and admire!) here are my notes on issues of:

• Hype: I hear you!  Of course, we’ve followed this since Ballard’s bubble in the late 1990s.  But you know that all technologies pass through the hype cycle!  Shouldn’t we compare notes on latest developments in labs and Board rooms and talk about an plausible roadmap that has commercialization within 2-10 years for first wave of products?!  Bloom is testing an actual product!
• Durability:  Fuel cells do not have to last 30 years. Stacks can be broken down, replaced, et al.  And the cost is per unit, not per power plant.  So we don’t need a product that lasts forever!
• Mass manufacturing: Fuel cells are modular, scalable units and I see no reason why manufacturing cannot be scaled?  Certainly a barrier, but not a show-stopper.
• Competition: ‘It will be GE, not Bloom Energy!’ — Great!  That is not a criticism.  I expect incumbents will play!  If Siemens, GE, Dow, DuPont, JC, Emerson (et al) get into the game, great news!
• Cost – Bloom’s CEO stated $3,000 price point – a fine place to start, but really, we need $300!   But it seems clear that low cost alternatives to precious metals are becoming commercially viable.

Watch: 60 minutes [video]

Watch CBS News Videos Online

Read similar posts

• http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/02/21/future-of-portable-personal-power-via-micro-fuel-cells/
• http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/01/14/ford-2012-focus-is-one-step-closer-to-skateboard-chassis-manufacturing-platform-and-end-of-combustion-engine/
• http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/01/28/gms-decision-to-build-electric-motors-could-shift-conversation-on-future-of-american-manufacturing/

Note:
I have followed Bloom Energy since it was formerly Ion America many years ago.  And I have been an evangelist for the disruptive market potential for fuel cells applied to portable and distributed power generation.   And to all the doubters of fuel cells or hydrogen I have responses to the dated and misguided criticisms related to storage, production, energy loss, et al.  Happy to answer questions in Comments section.

Additional Videos for more in depth interviews

Forecast and Outlook:  The vision of personal power systems based on fuel packets and micro fuel cells is arguably the most disruptive concept of future energy systems in the world today.  And yet it remains completely off the radar of most conversations about the future of energy.

The disruptive vision of energy access to anyone, anywhere in the world is two-fold:

• Fuel – Anyone in the world can buy clean, low cost fuel as long as they they have access to general retail markets. [e.g. you can buy safe packets of fuel next to a pack of gum.]
  [*Fuels are developed via any/all primary resources from renewables to hydrocarbons. The main point here is that we are bringing fuels to the user, not to the power plant!]

• ‘Personal power plants‘ (e.g. micro fuel cells) sold via retail stores in all sizes: from those already embedded inside consumer products (e.g. phone), to a small portable $10 charger or a $100 appliance that can power your home. [Fuel cells convert hydrogen rich fuels into electrical energy] [Note: Bloom Energy just released its press on The Bloom Box, video!]

This is the vision, and not a snapshot of first generation products currently on the market!  And I am not saying that we should abandon our accelerated focus on new forms of energy production or battery storage!  Just realize that cheap renewable grid energy or better batteries does not solve  issues of access and portability.  We cannot forget about the role ‘fuels’ and power conversion devices play in the energy world!!

To provide energy access to anyone, anywhere in the world we must focus on increasing access to clean fuels and reducing the cost of fuel cell conversion devices.

Why micro fuel cells? Non-grid Access & Portability

Portable power systems are those that use fuels to produce electricity in a device that can be carried by an individual person.  This notion goes beyond today’s grid-dependent rechargeable battery model to include micro fuel cells that convert hydrogen-rich chemical fuels into electricity.

Portable power can also be extended beyond people to the transportation sector for electric vehicles powered by batteries and fuel cells, and for remote auxiliary power (e.g. telecommunication towers).

Think of portable power systems as tiny power plants rather than storage devices like batteries.  But there is a key difference in the deliver of fuels to the the user and the cost of converting that fuel into electricity…

Micro fuel cells by-pass the grid and bring fuels directly to the end user.  Hydrogen rich chemical fuels come to market as small packets (e.g. small liquid containers of methanol, sponges of solid hydrogen).  They are safe and operate at room temperature.  And most importantly, can be bought and sold over a retail shelf.  The ‘packet’ of fuel is bought and controlled by the user.    No monthly contracts.  If they want to pay a premium for renewable resource derived fuel packets, by all means!

Instead of relying on multi-billion dollar power plants, fuel cell conversion devices will be made using low cost manufacturing techniques.  They are silent, have no moving parts and can be manufactured to any size/scale.

Portable power systems mean no need to access the grid.  No need to fight with strangers over a wall socket in a café or airport.  No need to hang wires from your new thin screen television.  No need to have plugs built into your kitchen counter top because your toast and coffee maker do not need to be ‘plugged in’.  They are all simply refueled.

How do we get there?
So how do we ‘unplug’ and access electricity away from the grid?  By radically transforming the cost structure and business models associated with low cost packets of chemical fuels (e.g. methanol, hydrogen, et al) that can be sold over retail shelves, and micro fuel cells (energy conversion devices) that can be embedded in any and all objects or sold as stand alone micro power plants.

The road map to this future is largely dependent on our ability to translate our expanding knowledge of energy systems into nanoscale materials engineering and next generation manufacturing techniques.

Once major cost and production challenges are overcome, the marketplace dynamics for diffusion of micro fuel cells will not have to compete against the existing grid model.  It can grow as fast as the user side demands. (e.g. it is a low end disruptive strategy that does not have to battle the incumbent).

Ummm, what if there is no current consumer demand?

Why I am not worried that consumers do not care about micro fuel cells!!
We are all familiar the essence of the anecdote of Henry Ford: “…if I would have asked my customers what they needed, they would have said a faster horse.’

Portable power receives virtually no attention within the media because micro fuel cells are simply not a viable option today!  And most consumers can see no real world applications for energy beyond their current assumptions of what is possible with batteries and solar roof panels.

Most people have no idea how the internal combustion engine works, let alone the electrochemical principles of  a micro fuel cell or the disruptive business model of distributed energy production.

Micro fuel cells occupy the same spot of consumer irrelevance that was held by the need for a horseless carriage when ‘my buggy works just fine thank you’, or the benefits of an ATM machine when ‘I really prefer to have human contact with my bank tellers, thank you’…. or demand during the early PC age when ‘… I don’t need a ‘home computer’ because I don’t need to do calculations at home, thank you.’

I do not expect consumer demand will lead this transition… nor do I expect it will come from within the existing energy industry.

I am not worried about what first generation micro fuel cells or solid hydrogen sponges can do today.  I care where we think we might be in 2015, 2020, 2025.

Personal power systems will likely come from  startups and entrepreneurs intent on creating new markets, not trying to add band aids to existing platforms. And I am fully confident that enough energy entrepreneurs in the micro fuel cell world see this same low end disruptive vision of putting power plants into the hands of consumers and bypassing the grid.    I am also fully confident that chemical fuel providers will embrace and innovate to meet the high premium value and price placed on smaller bundled packages of energy.

Micro fuel cells (’direct methanol’ and water activated powder versions) are expected to be brought to mass markets as batter rechargers soon after 2011.  And I suspect the real time horizon of disruptive change will occur 2015-2030.

It took us half a century to build out the electrical infrastructure of the 20th century, and I don’t expect it will be threatened anytime soon!

For now, the best we can do is explore the implications of this vision for personal power systems, and continue to monitor latest breakthroughs in materials science and the efforts of startups to bring micro power solutions to early adopter markets such as the military and back up power market.

Micro Fuel cell companies (in no particular order):

• MTI
• Ultracell Power
• Toshiba
• Jadoo
• Fujitsu
• Samsung
• Medis
• MyFC
• Bloom Energy
• CMR (UK)
• ReliOn
• DTI
• Angstrom Power
• Smart Fuel Cell
• Lilliputian Power Systems
• Violet
• Horizon Fuel Cells
• Protonex
• Hydra
• E-Cell
• Tekion
• Oorja
• GenPort

Extra Notes:
Embracing New Assumptions: The Hype vs Vision of Portable Power
All new disruptive technology platforms must walk through the stages of the ‘Hype Cycle‘, and confront our natural tendency to overestimate short-term change, but underestimate the long term potential.

I am selling the long-term vision, not the short-term hype of personal energy systems!   I am making a case that barriers can and should be overcome so that we can reap the benefits of distributed energy systems.   So rather than describe a snapshot of first generation micro fuel cells (as they exist today), let’s embrace and explore a new set of assumptions:

• Retail access to energy!
  The vision is: you can buy a packet of energy or micro power device next to a bar of soap or bag of rice whether you are in Walmart, Whole Foods or a tiny rural village in India. While visionaries try to put solar cells on every rooftop, don’t forget the role ‘fuels’ play in our energy system.
• We unplug everything!
  Electricity consuming products are embedded with micro fuel.  No more cords or plugs.  No more grid dependency.  You only need packets of fuel to keep your device running. (e.g. Every object contains within it a micro power plant that converts a fuel into electricity.)
• Fuel cell energy conversion devices!
  Chemical energy is converted into electricity via low cost fuel cells that consist of stacks of ‘tin foil’ like membrane sheets, rather than large metal turbines at multi-million dollar power plants.
  This means our electricity producing devices can be manufactured using industrial ‘ink jet’ printing machines and plastic casings, rather metal tooling machines.  And they are quiet and have no moving parts!

Extra Notes:
Disrupting the Era of Grid Dependency

For most of human history all energy was local.  Regionally available fuels (e.g. wood/biomass) were converted onsite (e.g. usually via fire) and controlled by the individual.   This was expensive in terms of labor and environmental impact (goodbye forests, goodbye clean air) but did not require organized capital investment or complex ‘energy companies’.

Then humans figured out a way to master electrons- and the age of electricity was born.  The only problem was that producing electricity was best handled in large power plants.  Thus the electrical grid was born.  And from that point forward access to electrical energy was based on a one-way stream of wires.  And humans became dependent on a ‘grid’ for their access to energy.

Let’s focus on the model: fuels such as coal and natural gas are discovered, exploited, refined, transported, heated to boil water that spin turbines that create electricity that travel long distances over wires to a wall socket.  Break that stream anywhere along the chain and the wall socket is useless.

Efficient? Hardly, more than half the energy is lost in the process.

Reliable?  Yes and no.  Even the .1% downtime of today’s modern grids cost tens of billions of dollars in lost economic productivity.

Cost effective?  Yes!

Valued by users? Absolutely!  (Unless you are talking about my portable gadgets!  Or if I don’t have access to the grid!)

The energy marketplace lesson?  Value and cost matter more than efficiency gains/losses.

Business models that make money beat the physics of energy loss.
(e.g. dear skeptics, stop trying to say hydrogen does not make sense because of laws of thermodynamics.  Can you add value is the only question you must ask!]

So let’s focus on how we can create value for users in a way that makes the centralized grid model irrelevant!  Rethink how we distribute fuels & convert them via distributed micro power plants!

Every time I see a reference about the new American consumer I think of a post 9/11 The Onion article:  A Shattered Nation Longs to Care about Stupid Bulllshit Again.

Events like 9/11 and the recent economic collapse can certainly alter consumer sentiment- especially in the short term.  But life stage transitions matter more!  And the best lens for understanding the future of US consumers is not ‘post economic crisis’ (event lens) but through the inevitable phase transition (developmental lens) occurring within the US Baby Boomer cohort as they approach their retirement years.

Soul searching or Aging?

It is a great time to be writing and talking about the future of the consumer mindset!   And with good reason –  consumer spending drives economic activity in the world’s developed economies, and is turning out to be the focus of fiscal policies to empower the expanding middle classes of China, India and Brazil.

Why so much activity around the future of consumption?  Because we’ve experienced another event!  [Futurists focus on 'trends, events and choices']   Ten years ago we wanted to know the future of consumption post 9/11 and now we are now trying to get our heads around the post economic collapse consumer mindset!

And the most important consumer segment for businesses and economists to watch remains the US Baby Boomer (sorry Millennials, Gen X and Asian consumer!) [See share of spending by 50+ in McKinsey's 50/50 report]

There is no doubt that consumers appear to be pulling back or redirecting their discretionary spending.  The question worth exploring is: Will this phase change be driven by  consumers waking up from an era of mindless consumption or will the real driver of change be their anticipation of pending retirement years?!

Lens One: Consumers have seen the light, and want to change their ways! (Brands beware!)
John Gerzema, co-author of The Brand Bubble, delivered a thought provoking TEDx talk in which he frames this post-crisis consumer environment as “The Great Unwind driven by the empowered consumer.  Gerzema delivers a solid presentation with powerful lines that speak to shifts in branding identities and relationships: ’…businesses must provide values, not just value‘, consumers are ‘moving from mindless to mindful consumption’, consumers are de-leveraging, ’seeing rise of ‘cooperative consumerism’ and ‘variable spending’ living’.

Credit to Gerzema! He delivers solid insights – especially for near term marketing campaigns and longer term strategies on how brands can remain relevant.  But I think there is something more fundamental happening here that will require the transformation of industry sectors as we brace for the impact of inevitable lifestyle shifts associated with aging and retirement.

Lens Two: Consumers are just Closer to Retirement (Industry sectors beware!)
What really matters is not the ‘event’ induced sentiments of consumption, but the new normal dynamics associated with life-stage transitions.  And the aging of the Baby Boomer population means less discretionary spending (per capita) as they shift from salary to asset-derived incomes, fewer children in the homes of wealthiest households, and the emergence of new priorities associated with spending on health and wellness.

We are at the end of a 40 year long consumer era that can be charted in lock step with the life stages of the Baby Boomer consumer economy (e.g. from rise of shopping malls, Mini Vans/SUVs, credit card spending).  It was a unique era shaped by some profound changes across the spectrum of: social (e.g. role of women), economic (e.g. credit markets; second homes) and technological (e.g. consumer electronics) domains.

But 2011 marks the beginning of another phase transition: the Baby Boomer retirement years that will stretch through 2029.  And there is a great deal of uncertainty among consumers, companies and policy makers as to the challenges and opportunities ahead.

A few thoughts to consider…  and resources to explore:

Industry Challenges:

• Paying for Quality of Life: Boomers are likely to place more focus on quality of life goods and services.  The challenge will be paying for it!!  There is a gap ahead that must be confronted between aspirations for ‘the good life’ versus the financial capacity to live another 10-30 years without real income gains.
• Managing Government spending: Public dollars spent on Social Security and Medicare alone will increase from about 7 percent of the total size of the U.S. economy to almost 13 percent by 2030 and to more than 15 percent by 2050, (Ben Bernake, 2007)
• Sustaining economic growth: [A retreat of Boomer spending] ‘…could stifle the economy… and knock U.S. growth down from the 3.2% it has averaged since 1965 to 2.4% over the next 30 years. “We would have gotten here in 5 or 10 years as boomers retire, but we pushed it up.” McKinsey Consulting:  [Business Week,  7-23-09]
• Financial Services: How will the financial services sector respond to lower risk investment appetite of Boomers?  What types of innovations will emerge around structured instruments for retirees?

Industrial Sectors Opportunities
Industrial sectors that will serve aging markets will tap a blend of hardware (goods) and software (services).  The challenge will be scaling and keeping costs down to capture the entire spectrum of the Boomer market [See: McKinsey 50/50 report].

• Web-based Platform Delivery - The web will continue to evolve as a platform for businesses to reach and serve aging populations.  Expect big opportunities to emerge around video, voice, sensor-based wearables and location based web experiences
• Home-based Healthcare- Institutional healthcare will not go away- but new players in the fields of healthcare and wellness are looking to scale services outside of institutions!  (e.g. Intel is developing robots to provide seniors with independent living; video)
• Financial Services - The finance sector is already gearing up with new products and services that aim to provide Boomers with steady income streams from their assets.
• Experience Sectors – For the past thirty years the US consumer has been moving steadily towards consuming services and ‘experiences’  (e.g. travel/tourism, ‘third place’ cafes and bookstores, et al).  This trend will likely continue to expand especially in areas related to personal development via learning and wellness.
• Workforce Strategies - Retirement is of course based on an arbitrary age, and there is no doubt that many Boomers will continue to work out of financial need or personal fulfillment.    What is uncertain is how they will continue working.  Will it be part-time or full-time within their current organizations?  Or will many transition careers and fields (e.g. social entrepreneurship)?   I suspect the market for continual lifelong learning and skills development for Boomers could mushroom in the next twenty years!

Resources

• Aging puts wrinkle in US Marketplace – Neilsen article
• McKinsey 50/50 report
• US Census Bureau Fact Finder on Aging
• US Dept of Health report on global aging 2008 [PDF]
• Report on Consumer Spending Patterns 1959-2000 [PDF]
• Deloitte: Wealth with Wisdom:Serving the Aging Consumer [PDF] Blog post
• McKinsey report: Talkin about my generation: Impact of Aging
• Seeking Alpha blog post on Generational Shifts and Consumer Spending
• UT Austin ‘Policy Choices‘ report
• Harvard report: Reinventing Aging
• Congressional Budget Office Report on Asset
• Humor – The Onion – US Product Diversity now Exceeds Biodiversity (!!)
• Humor – The Onion – Shattered Nation Longs to Care about Stupid Bullshit Again (post 9/11)

Direct YouTube link

The World Economic Forum (sponsor of the annual Davos gathering) has released a short set of scenarios highlighting broad implications around plausible outcomes for the ’Future of Future of Mining and Metals in 2030‘. WEF’s scenarios demonstrate the value of foresight and futures thinking for public and private sector leaders interested in exploring uncertainties about global change (and they cause flashbacks to my graduate school days).  The three scenarios were developed based on their ‘relevance, divergence and capacity to challenge thinking‘:

• Scenario One: Green Trade Alliance
• Scenario Two: Rebased Globalism
• Scenario Three: Resource Security

Why are scenarios for mining and materials resources important in the Digital & Knowledge Age?
If you were only to believe the evangelist voices of the ‘digital age’, you might mistakenly believe that de-materialization was the only overwhelming force of change in the world today.  But the truth is more sobering!   ’Things still matter‘ and our ability to master molecules and overcome the geopolitical challenges associated with mineral markets is critical for positive social and economic change for all nations.

Resources such as iron ore used to make steel, bauxite for aluminum, and precious metals used in electronics and appliances are incredibly important to the world economy and self-interest of national economies.   And while nanoscale materials design and bioindustrial assembly of hydrocarbon compounds are likely to help us overcome many resource constraints (e.g. broader substitutability options), there are significant challenges ahead for the mining and metals sectors as economic growth continues to expand the world’s global middle class.

Direct link Youtube

Learn more…

Related resources:

• Oil Drum has collected presentations on mineral and metals resources
• Nate Hagens, An umbrella view of resource depletion and human behaviour, PDF 148 slides, 8.7 MB

My posts: WEC Future of Global Finance Scenarios

http://bit.ly/9EAFyd

One Final Night Launch…
Last week I fulfilled a lifelong dream of seeing the Space Shuttle liftoff- in what will likely be the last night launch of the NASA Shuttle Program.  Now that the International Space Station is nearing completion NASA will retire the reusable Shuttle fleet in September, and move towards lower cost expendable rockets that might be developed by the private sector. But we can put the politics and economics of the space launch industry aside for now and just appreciate the glory of a very memorable night launch of STS-130 Shuttle Endeavour.

Part One: The Volume of Light
I stood among several hundred people pushed up against the water of the Indian River in Titusville, FL nearly 10 miles from the launch pad.  3, 2, 1 … ignition… liftoff: The rocket reaction of hydrogen and oxygen created a temporary sunrise that transformed a dark horizon into a pure white ball of light that faded into an orange and yellow glow. Seconds later the Shuttle pushed upward, roaring through two separate thick horizontal layers of clouds – lighting up each layer (yellow and orange) as it climbed into the dark morning sky!

There was a collective jaw-dropping ‘wow’, and likely a few tears of joy, shared among the strangers standing along the river.  We were watching a large metal truck and crew overcoming gravity by harnessing the  massive thrust from combining hydrogen and oxygen.  It is the ultimate mastery of molecules…

Part Two: The Rumble Sound Wave
Remember light travels faster than sound!   The entire light show goes without a soundtrack for nearly 50 seconds.  At 10 miles from the launch site it took nearly a minute (after ignition) for  the massive sound wave to roar across the Indian River and consume everyone standing in its path.  The rocket had bent the fabric of our still morning air and sent a ripple effect wave that pushed into your body…

And then as the sound wave passed, we watched in awe as the Shuttle headed north dropping her external booster rockets and breaking the bonds of Earth to deliver Tranquility and the Earth-observing cupola (videos below) to the space station.  The 4 minute show was over…

Collection of STS-130 Videos (Not my own thanks to a camera fail!)
YouTube has a wonderful collection of launch video recordings (including the sound wave) that are worth watching. Each has its own unique viewing angle – and reaction from the crowd.

Taken from Spaceview Park in Titusville
Taken by someone right near our location in Titusville… the bright sunrise and ripple sound wave and all…]
[Skip to minute: 1:10 - turn volume down low]

Taken from the VIP area at the apollo saturn v center at banana creek
[Amazing visuals... very close... but camera does not follow shuttle]

NASA STS-130 Space Shuttle Night Launch Endeavor sts130 2/8/10

[A Bright orange glow... starting at :59 min.  Very nice!   And at 2:00 minute you can hear the rumble of the sound wave that we all felt on the banks of the Indian River.  Remember it takes time for the sound to travel across the water! But when it arrives - there is nothing like it!]

STS-130 Night Shuttle Endeavour Launch / Titusville
[sound rumble at 1:38]

Space Shuttle Endeavor Launch (STS-130) on February 8th, 2010
[nice recording of sound rumble 1:30 min]

The ‘Official’ video – starts at 10/11 minute – very nice shots

Space Shuttle Launch – Endeavour STS-130 night launch Feb 8, 2010 4:19 am 11.8 miles away

[Sound rumble at 1:28--- wow]

Some great visuals – very close to the launch pad on the Cape – only 3 miles away!
Might be the closet shot of the launch…
‘…that feels good’ from sound wave ripple..

NASA STS-130 Space Shuttle Night Launch Endeavor sts130 2/8/10

[Sound begins at 2:00 min]

STS-130 Launch at NASA Causeway

Nice video from Banana Creek

From the Press Site

So what is STS-130 Carrying?   Tranquility and Cupola observation modules!!!

NASA Node 3 press day

Forget about trying to displace oil, the target for disruption is the internal combustion engine!

If you want a sneak peak at the most revolutionary ideas in how we design, build and experience cars visit: Local Motors, River Simple, Commn, and Trexa (Image).

These companies are rethinking platform-based vehicle design to support manufacturing and business model innovations that might define the 21st century mobility industry.  They are focused on creative disruption within the industry by expanding the industrial ecosystem of hardware and software platforms that enable low cost, low volume production, mass personalization via ’aftermarket‘ services, and innovation around open-sourced software and hardware principles.

EV Platform = Design & Manufacturing Revolution
The EV transition will likely be driven by a revolution in how we build cars, not fuel them.  The best way for the auto industry to reduce its eco-footprint is to confront its manufacturing footprint (e.g. low factory capacity utilization) by abandoning the combustion engine platform for electric propulsion.

We are years away from mass EV production, but given the rate of progress and profit incentives to change,  it is now possible to imagine very highly disruptive market innovations based on the leveraging of  scalable, modular principles with EV design:

• High performance wheel-based electric motors that provide improved torque, efficiency and a lower cost modular manufacturing platform for vehicle assembly
• Carbon composite bodies that reduce vehicle weight and open up possibilities for new vehicle (shape) design that move beyond metal frames to polymer composites
• Situational Awareness Software & ‘Drive by wire’ control systems that transform the driver experience and replace mechanical systems (braking/steering) with more reliable (and personalized) electro-mechanical systems
• Advanced batteries and hydrogen fuel cells that power electric vehicles using the integration of storage (batteries) and fuel conversion (hydrogen fuel cells) at lowest cost per weight possible

Imagining Scenarios for the Future of Mobility
We are in Year One of the EV transition and it is important not to over-hype the speed of change.   But given the rate of innovation happening with EV platforms, we can develop a number of roadmap-based scenarios that might include the emergence of smaller, low-volume brand producers; a mainstream market shift from new car sales towards aftermarket vehicle upgrades, and fundamentally new vehicle segments (e.g. 2 or 3-wheeled urban ‘access’ vehicles).

Software is clearly the lowest hanging fruit – and we can already see a  mainstreaming effort towards situational awareness systems (e.g. connected cars‘, adaptive cruise control, et al) by major auto brands (e.g. OnStar; Ford Sync).  We can be confident that the driving experience will be augmented by software within a decade.

Yet, hardware is the real lever for changing the industry!  And the enabling force of change will be the emerging era of nanoscale materials science and engineering.   Advances in materials design could lead to breakthroughs in energy systems (batteries & fuel cells) and composite materials for light weight vehicle bodies that reduce costs, simplify assembly, improve safety and evolve our notion of vehicle shapes beyond traditional sedans and trucks (e.g. P.U.M.A. chariot).

Is the skateboard chassis the 21st Century’s version of the Model T Ford?  (I think so…!)
The internal combustion engine is more vulnerable to losing its market share than oil!  The I.C.E. is at the center of the auto industry’s cost and capacity management nightmare scenario.  Asian manufacturers entering the marketplace are likely to cause headaches for managing capacity utilization, and it might be wise for established automakers to decouple their business model from building new I.C.E. cars to ‘aftermarket’ sales and services based on EV software-hardware platforms.

Trying to compete globally around mechanical engines is likely a race to the bottom for profit margins!

Good luck to GM and Ford as they try to win a brand battle in a world with plenty of capable competition.   There are simply too many brands in the marketplace vying for the same traditional markets.  It might be time to transform the auto industry around a more open ‘platform’ / ecosystem model that shifts focus towards continual aftermarket upgrades.

And the ’skateboard’ chassis might be that platform… (See GM’s Autonomy concept!)

Just as the assembly line changed the economics of auto manufacturing, so might the modular potential of electric vehicle platforms based on wheel-based motors, drive by wire and plug-n-play energy systems that integrate batteries and fuels cells.

But until major automakers share this new vision of the future of mobility, we will look at startups such as Local Motors, River Simple, and Trexa to show what is truly possible in transforming mobility.

Learn more:

• Local Motors on Twitter
• River Simple on Twitter (Formerly OScar project)
• Trexa on Twitter
• General Motors – Autonomy / Hy-Wire concept vehicles (**Which launched the ’skateboard’ chassis concept) – [See TED Talk below]

Related posts and videos:

• GM’s Decision to Build Electric Motors Could Shift Conversation on Future of American Manufacturing
  includes videos
• Ford 2012 Focus Is One Step Closer To Skateboard Chassis Manufacturing Platform and End of Combustion Engine

Related posts on The Energy Roadmap.com (where I was Founding Editor)

• The Road to Electric Vehicles passes through ChinaWall
• Street Journal confirms our Case for Electric Cars: A Lower Barrier to Manufacturing
• Electric vehicle industry goes global around energy storage systems
• What powers the car of tomorrow? Batteries or Hydrogen fuel cells? [Hint: Both]
• Video Interview with Shai Agassi on disruptive business models for electric cars
• Is Detroit asleep at the wheel?
• The Good news? China is investing in electric cars, The Bad news? China is investing in electric cars
• Is GM expecting China to extend its grid for electric cars?
• France to spend millions on electric vehicles
• Warren Buffet buys equity in China’s BYD
• New hydrogen storage device lighter than lithium batteries
• McKinsey believes China could lead world in electric vehicles
• GM pick Korean battery maker over US startup A123 Systems
• Hyundai to build fuel cell electric vehicle for 2012
• US algae startups could transform China coal industry
• France’s GDF invests in electric car infrastructure
• Electric vehicle networks startup moves into Australia
• Detroit to World, Nobody has killed the electric car
• India’s Tata Motors will produce electric vehicle in 2009 for Europe!
• A Futurist’s Guide to Cars of 2020

Just a few alternative assumptions about changes in the transportation industry that I am fond of repeating…

• The revolution is in how we build cars, not fuel them!
  The problem is not oil, but the combustion engine.  Why? First it lacks fuel substitutability and must use liquid fuels.  Second, it leads to challenges for automakers who must manage factory capacity utilization. Third, it is bulky and leads to to generic vehicle design!

• The industry must first reduce its manufacturing footprint, then its environmental footprint will follow.
  The auto industry can reduce costs by evolving towards modular EV vehicle platform based on the integration of batteries and fuel cells, wheel-based motors and drive by wire controls.  This is not a winner take all future for energy systems.  Batteries and fuel cells are the winning combination for auto applications!
• Consumers will love Personalization & Software Experiences (more than eco benefits)
  Time to decouple!!  The auto industry (automakers, dealers and suppliers) can expand revenues by shifting from one-time new car sales, to on-going  ‘after-market’ upgrades and software-media experiences.  When will software designers and auto customization specialists be considered desirable auto industry jobs?!

Image credit:  Trexa vehicle press release photo

Video: Larry Burns at TED: Reinventing the Car

Additional Videos to watch:

RiverSimple (UK) Open Source Hydrogen Car

TED Talk by Larry Burn introduction GM Autonomy

EV Mini test drive