Next week I am honored to be a keynote speaker for the California Transit Association’s 47th Annual Fall Conference to be held in Palm Springs, CA.  California transit agencies have evolved considerably across  historical eras of transportation within the state — and based on the signals I see today as a friendly outsider – they are well positioned to become leaders in developing a new vision for integrated transit services across small towns, suburban metros and urban communities.

The future of transit will be shaped by many drivers of change- politics associated with funding, fleet management business models, demographic transitions (e.g. Aging Boomers; Millennial family formation), technology (e.g. sensing and automation software; location-based services), energy (e.g. fuels; fleet electrification), micro-macro economic policies, materials engineering, architecture and urban design – and the list goes on.

The distinctions we will explore in the keynote are between the trends likely to deliver incremental changes (more or less change; moving slowly over time; often constraint-based) versus those forces of change capable of delivering transformative solutions (different capabilities that create new demand) that alter business models and community expectations for  transit experiences.

While it is hard to agree exactly on how transit might evolve in the years ahead – it is easier to imagine that it will be different as the conditions of the world around us change.   Transit, like our modern day automobile industry, is a relatively new market sector and cultural expectation— growing up in a mid 20^thcentury world shaped by consumerism, cheap fuels, and green field highways & suburban expansion.   Transit is well positioned to redefine fleet-based service innovation in a world where these 20th century conditions are increasingly challenged and constrained by new forces of global change.

The vision we need to evolve is one that re-imagines the role of fleets within society– and the seamless flow that can exist across multiple modes of transportation.

Transit will continue to serve communities using a diversified fleet of fixed route buses, light and commuter rail - and on-demand paratransit and door-to-door services.  We can also imagine transit leading the way in mainstreaming opportunities for active transportation (e.g. walking; biking) and delivering new vehicle form factors designed and built for the 21st century where integration, automation and flow are the most important qualities of fleet operation.

My presentation will focus on ways to close the gap between how the world is changing around transit – versus the internal industry talent strategy needed to change community expectations for an expanded role of transit in the next century.  The challenge for California transit agencies will be in identifying and delivering the skill sets and mindsets needed within the state to transition into a 21^st century mobility environment.

Following the talk, I will follow up with a capture and report out on the conversation and look forward to meeting everyone in California next week!

IBM Watson™ made its debut in February 2011 when the Deep Question & Answer software system defeated two previous reigning human champions – Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter in a three-night special Jeopardy! showcase. The event made for carnival headlines but most news reports failed to connect Watson’s performance with its intended application- to transform the nature of human productivity in an age of information-rich, context dependent and software-mediated work environments. Watson is designed to augment (improve) our capacity to think through complex problems, ask the right questions,  judge possible solutions and make informed confident decisions based on real-world data that exists within our own memory banks and beyond.

Productivity and Life-long Learning via Personal Assistants IBM Watson™ and Apple Siri™  are early signals of what might transform work and lifelong learning around software based personal assistants that push human beings to think more deeply and broadly about questions, answers and their personal confidence levels in making decisions. IBM is leading the way in an emerging paradigm for software – based on improving human cognitive performance in an era of endless streams of data and changing contexts around the marketplace and collective industry knowledge base. The next step for IBM’s Watson is to enter the workplace and help to transform the capacity of human work.  IBM’s public roadmap for Watson begins in three main industries: Healthcare, Finance and Customer Service.  But first, let’s explore why Watson matters….

Why Watson Matters… Natural Language, Box in a Cloud, Focus on Answers & Honesty about Confidence Levels 

There are four things that matter with IBM Watson that are relevant to understanding the future of work and learning (machine and human):

1) Natural Language Matters Watson is not alive.  It is not artificial intelligence.  But it can (better than any other system on Earth today) understand the nuanced elements of meaning created by natural language. Forget about display screens, clicking with your mouse and typing on a keyboard.  Watson (and to a lesser degree – Siri) allow us  to engage us in conversation and overcome the ambiguity associated with human language.  Watson is an ideal ‘post screen’ interface that helps to lower the barrier to workplace applications where screens might not be conducive to workflow.

2) Knowledge in a Box Matters The web revolutionized access to information, but has also led to a world with too much information — and at times –  too much inaccurate information.  The web is also limited in its capture of unstructured and private data.   So we can recognize a fundamental limitation to a purely ‘open’ web platform for advanced human augmentation systems. Knowledge requires filters for transparency, authentication and accountability.  There is benefit to controlling information in a silo that is constantly updated. Watson is a self contained storage, retrieval, analysis systems.  Watson is a ‘box’ with a 15 trillion-byte memory capacity which allows IBM to be sure that the information output will be shaped by the input rather than extracting data from the open web. The next step is putting the Box in the Cloud — and opening up a portal to non-supercomputing devices!!

3) Answers Matter Today we search the web and receive a list of websites which we must read to find the answer.  Again, there are no filters to guide that process.  The website we choose was likely placed on the first page of a Google Search bar – or shared with us via social networks. Watson does not give you a list of websites, it gives you the answer(s). It might take years to change behavior– but in a not-so-distant future, our ‘search’ expectations are likely to shift to more answer oriented results.  Obviously there is tremendous potential for an upside and downside (e.g. narrow casting; critical thinking issues) to an answer engine web culture– but we can see other players such as Wolfram Alpha and Google validating the industry’s new direction towards ‘answers’ as the next step for search. One wonders if Google and IBM become learning management systems in the end…

4) Confidence Matters Watson knows that it is not perfect.  IBM recognizes that technology cannot deliver certainty on demand. So Watson embraces uncertainty and is honest about its confidence level with each response.  For each question it receives, Watson assigns a ‘Confidence’ level (%) and chooses to respond – or not – based on the situation. One can only dream of a world where humans approach real-world challenges filled with uncertainty – with answers that reflect our recognition that the answers – solutions – might not be perfectly clear. Imagine a work environment where people are honest and transparent in their knowledge level – and confidence level to respond to a particular question!  Instead of giving answers to please our colleagues and customers we can envision a future world of work where uncertainty is dealt with using a range of possible answers given our best set of inputs. …. Apple’s Siri is cute— but Watson is the real potential game-changer in these early days of software-mediated human performance!

Real World Applications for ‘Watson’-like Software Programs 

Healthcare Why healthcare?  It is impossible to know all new information in the world of life sciences.

IBM Watson – Commercial for Healthcare   IBM Watson – Future of Financial Services IBM Watson – Call Centers 

Finance – Assist in providing humans with real-time market information.

Watson is not Alone

• Google is not shy about hiding its ‘real-time’ and ‘voice’ based interface innovations.  Google’s vision is to have the answer ‘as fast as you think’.
• Apple has recently launched Siri as a consumer grade personal assistant.
• Microsoft’s promotion of Bing is as a ‘decision engine’ – not a lowly search engine.
• Wolfram Alpha (and a number of other startups) are involved in this ‘answer engine’

Key Concepts:

• Natural Language Interface; Conversational Interface
• Analytics; Deep Analytics; Deep Question & Answer;
• Algorithms; Data;  Unstructured Data; Data-Information-Knowledge-Wisdom (DIKW)
• Parallel Processing; Distributed Computing; Multi-core; Scaling; Power 7 Platform;
• Augmentation; Intelligence Augmentation;  information processing augmentation

People

• Algo Team
• David Ferrucci
• Anant Jhingran

Video Resources IBM Watson: Overview (20 min) IBM – The Next Grand Challenge: Natural Language   IBM Watson on Ambiguity  Science Behind IBM Watson

Manoj Saxena IOD Keynote – Putting IBM Watson to work

IBM Watson – Future of Financial Services Work IBM Watson – Future of Customer Service 

In March 2011 I was invited to Oklahoma State University to deliver two talks on the future of energy for the School of International Studies Global Briefings Series and at an awards ceremony for the campus Institute for Sustainable Environments.  During my visit I was asked to speak with Rob McClendon Host of Oklahoma Horizons show:

Part One: Garry Golden – Energy Futurist

Things I forgot to mention:
Biofuels should be clarified as investing in’next generation’ (non-food) sources such as algae, bacteria that leverage carbon and hydrocarbons from non-food biomass (waste; byproducts; switchgrass, et al).   The US DOE has set clear limits on food-based biofuel production and within the industry there is clear direction to move to next generation (non-food) feedstocks.  Corn and soy are NOT the future of biofuels!  Also – it was a long day at OSU with multiple talks– and I completely misrepresented electrofuels which are based on non-photosynthetic energy conversion.

Part Two: Energy Futurist Garry Golden (Continued)

Notes:
My ’15 years’ (comment shoud have been 1990s, not 1990); Also, I mentioned distributed power generation via fuel cells because Oklahoma has an existing manufacturing base in polymers that could be extended into fuel cells as solid state polymer-based energy conversion.

The Wall Street View
Last week, DuPont announced its acquisition of Denmark-based Danisco based on the ‘clear synergies with [its] Nutrition & Health and Applied BioSciences‘ business units.

DuPont’s $5.8 Billion strategic investment is based on two macro trends that will shape global markets over the next half century:

• increased global demand for food (both commodity ingredients and specialty ‘functional foods‘ with health benefits)
• increased constraints on industrial production based on chemical engineering & hydrocarbon feedstocks (and likely shift to biologically-inspired and biologically-driven systems.)

Danisco is the world’s largest food ingredients maker (e.g. sweetners, enablers, probiotic cultures, et al) but the most strategically appealing asset of DuPont’s courtship was Danisco subsidiary Genencor which develops industrial enzymes for biofuels and biomaterials production.

The combining of these two companies did not shock analysts. DuPont and Danisco started dating several years ago with a collaborative venture (DuPont Danisco Cellulosic Ethanol) to produce ethanol from waste byproducts.

But the shift from chemical engineering to bioengineering goes far beyond biofuels – and DuPont could help to mainstream global efforts to expand biologically-derived industrial processes across all major industry sectors from energy, agriculture, healthcare, textiles, construction, pharmaceuticals, and materials manufacturing.

DuPont is investing in a bridge from its chemical engineering past, to its biotechnology future — but it might also be a catalyst speeding up other global investments in this emerging bioindustrial age!

The Foresight View
Inspiring the Next Generation of Bio Industrialists

Believing in Bio-Ridiculous
It is time to imagine a world transformed by the tiniest organisms on the planet – algae and bacteria.  Silly as it might seem, there is precedent in such foolish ideas!

It was once seen as other worldly to melt rocks (ores) and create metals/alloys.  Then it was considered ridiculous to imagine coal – considered to be a useless black rock – as a better source of energy than dominant wood.  Using steam (or oil) to turn a ‘machine’ seemed like a silly waste of time.  The idea of a ‘synthetic rubber‘ seemed foolish given the poor performance of early plastic products (rubber would always come from trees).  And how would we ever make money from sand (silica) alternatives to vacuum tube computers?!

Ores. Coal. Oil. Rubber. Sand.  Only foolish industrialists imagined a society transformed by these things!

So the foolish thing today would be to imagine wealth creation using algae or bacteria.

The foolish industrialists of today would see the carbon dioxide emitted from coal power plants (or waste byproducts) as food for algae and bacteria to create biofuels and biomaterials.

They would dream of a small home bioreactor that cleans household wastewater and breaks down organic waste, or a bio-fuel cell that turns industrial waste streams into fuel.

Why would we ever look for solutions to global energy and and environmental challenges inside the metabolic factories inside the world’s tiniest creatures?

Giving Credit, Where Credit is Due
(Plate tectonic shifts aside…) Microorganisms like algae and bacteria are the engines of all natural systems.

Billions of years ago, they breathed oxygen into the world.  Every molecule that we breathe today has passed through a microbe.   And they are the majority ‘sink’ (more than plants/trees) for the planetary carbon cycle.   There is a lot to learn from the metabolic factories inside algae and bacteria.

DuPont is moving the world one step closer to believing in the foolish idea that we can make things (sustainably) from bacteria and algae.

This vision is that we will make things, by growing things.

Past industrialists were inspired by rock ore, coal, steam, oil and sand.

Future industrialists might be inspired by algae and bacteria.

That is the disruptive vision.

Same Ingredients, Different Tools for Assembly
DuPont sees the big story:  rethinking industrial systems.

Industrial companies make money by leveraging the interactions of molecules.  Heat has been the main method of facilitating those interactions.  Biology offers a different strategy to manipulating the interactions of  carbon, hydrogen, oxygen, nitrogen, phosphorus, and metals.

Look around your world and you’ll find that most industrial products in your life are made up of hydrogen and carbon atoms with a touch of other elements.

Hydrocarbons like oil, coal and natural gas are the foundation of polymers (plastics) that have allowed humanity to leap from the constraints of natural materials like stone, wood and metals (steel; aluminum).

And the past 150 years of industrialism was defined by chemical engineering that took resources like natural gas and gasoline to produce higher value products based on a system often characterized as:  ’heat, beat and treat‘.

All of our major assumptions of industrialism are based on a past and present era of  ’extracting’ resources (mostly hydrocarbons and metals) for treatment (via chemistry) in large batches. To be sure, chemical engineering is not going away!  But it will no longer be the only method!

In the future, we will introduce a new method for ‘growing’ resources above ground by leveraging algae/bacteria (and their enzyme reaction centers) to re-assemble molecules like carbon, hydrogen and a host of other elements

This bioindustrial age could allow us to open up new opportunities for creating materials and fuels that tap the power of biological systems (e.g. genetics, proteins/enzymes, and metabolic pathways)

The promise is lower costs of production, reduction of waste (inputs/outputs), new product categories, and improved manufacturing yields.

DuPont’s acquisition expands its base of usable industrial enzymes that facilitate better interactions of molecules that can be used to make things.

And the runway for bio industrial processes is very long!   There is still new knowledge to be acquired and prototyping to be done. But DuPont’s stamp of approval goes a long way….

I’ll stop there…  some more resources below

Related Terms:

• Industrial Biotechnology; Bio Industrialism; BioEconomy (thanks, Sean_OHanlon)
• Bio Refineries; Bioreactors; Microbial Manufacturing
• Industrial Enzymes
• Bioplastics
• Biologics (Pharmaceuticals)
• Biomanufacturing
• Proteomics; Protein Engineering
• Biomimcry
• Bio-utilization
• Synthetic Biology
• Algae; Bacteria; Archaea

Companies to Watch

• Novozymes
• DSM
• CHR-Hansen
• CPKelco
• Kerry Group
• Tate and Lyle
• Arla
• Kemin
• China Biotics

• Dyadic
• Dow Agro
• Codexis
• Cathay Biotech
• FLSmidth
• Firmenich
• IFF

Image Source: Flickr Creative Commons by: http://www.flickr.com/photos/fdecomite/5062256469/

Forecast & Outlook: Industry pundits might soon recognize the most innovative transportation startup in the land as San Francisco-based Uber: a compay that connects fleet drivers to users via an on-demand, mobility-as-service business model.

This high-tech, high-touch, point-to-point service empowers fleet owners/drivers and has the potential to provide users with a more compelling access solution to Zipcar’s car ownership alternative. Considering real world mobility demands, I find Uber’s focus on a fleet-leveraged ‘per mile’ to be more compelling than Zipcar’s ‘per hour’.

The Future of Fleets: 2010-2020
Uber‘s position as a disruptor is based on its focus of empowering fleets and setting new expectations for personalized on-demand service. And its focus on service innovation might appeal to a wide range of stakeholders: cities/suburbs seeking to new mobility solutions, transit companies seeking to expand their reach and revenues from premium services, automakers seeking blue ocean markets of new smaller footprint EV fleets, and entrepreneurs seeking to enter this new tech-infused transportation landscape.

Forget about bold predictions - let’s just have fun with a few plausible events by 2020 that could shift our attention to the potential low-cost, high margin future of fleets they might include:

• 2012 – the incumbent fleet legal battles begin as taxi and transit unions fight on-demand business models; Meanwhile, GM Onstar and Ford Sync battle for the brand value in a crowded smart app landscape
• 2014 – fleet union leaders wake up and realize that on-demand markets will only increase their service opportunities
• 2015 – major auto insurance agencies release first line of products for on-demand services
• 2016 – a sprawling metro (say Houston) creates legal framework for on-demand fleets to reach suburban markets (e.g. after-school programs for kids, commuting parents, aging populations)
• 2017 - GM buys Segway (causing Ford to buy ZipCar) as both announce roadmaps for ‘last mile’mobility-as-service partnerships that begins with commuters to transit hubs
• 2017 – Tokyo Metro announces plans to test pilot remote controlled mini-van system
• 2018 – Brooklyn and Queens-based ‘Dollar Vans‘ sign revenue sharing agreement with MTA to service non-peak hours and expanded transit’s reach and service footprint
• 2019 - Hertz Connect leads the way as rental companies scramble for partnerships as they (finally) move beyond airports to servicing resident communities.
• 2020 – Toyota buys Local Motors and introduces open source hardware platform for ‘Chariot’ form factor urban vehicles; The industry’s value chain shifts from selling new hardware to a ‘product plus service‘ revenues
• 2022 – Majority of EVs (based on fuel cells+batteries) are manufactured for fleets not direct-to-consumer
• 2025 - Auto safety giant Takata* releases semi-autonomous fleet solutions based on externally mounted pedestrian safety systems for first wave of ‘chariot’ pods to be unleashed in Germany and Japan

One Certainty – Service Innovation is Coming
Beyond these provocative events, there is one certainty for the future of transportation.  Service innovation based on technology is coming!  And I give the biggest upside to fleets!

Who might be the early adopters?  Fatigued commuters? Boomers living in downtown condos? Millennials? Spectators heading to sporting events? Tourists?  Or might companies lead the way (e.g. Home Depot control fleets of pick up trucks)?

It’s just a guessing game on who will jump first or lead?  But we can be confident in the direction of service innovation and likely rise in access-model revenues as the decades old ownership model of the auto industry fails to break out of its capacity utilization challenges.

By 2020, I would expect that the idea (not the market adoption) of ‘mobility-as-service‘ to become mainstream. Setting the stage for a massive retooling and build-out of mobility systems beyond 2020.

Read more:

The Spectrum of Visions: Anti-Car; Social Mobility and Autonomous Era

& What if ZipCar is the Friendster vs Uber as Facebook in the Mobility 2.0 Industry?

The Spectrum of Visions: Anti-Car; Social Mobility and Autonomous Era

The  seeds for the future of transportation have been planted and visionaries are now once again free to envision more radical futures. What most people agree on is that the future will include more choice of multi-modal transportation and that the true cost of vehicle ownership could be revealed as subsidized systems (e.g. free parking; peak/base commuting) are brought into the marketplace of ‘pay as you use‘ fees.

The visions come from a wide spectrum:

• The ‘anti’ car’ communities who wish to kill the car and focus on more structural design remedies of suburban-urban systems
• The ‘go social’ entrepreneurs who see the leverage of collaborative consumption via feel good concepts like car-sharing, taxi cab sharing, and crowd-sourced real-time networks (e.g. Roadify).
• The ‘grow with flow’ crowd of techno-optimists which put all their chips on more transformative solutions like autonomous vehicles and smart infrastructure to get more capacity out of existing systems

The secret to good foresight is being able identify and understand all three mindsets – and communicate the incremental and transformative changes to industry leaders!

Talking with my transportation industry clients I recommend leveraging structural investments around multi-modal transportation solutions and the upside of ‘social geoweb’.  These drivers of change are coming!

And with these same clients, I plant a seed of a more disruptive image based on a future beyond 2020 where situational awareness technologies have transformed the role of the human from driver to captain.

While the end game might indeed be fully autonomous vehicles that allow us to ‘grow with flow’, the transition begins with semi-autonomous systems that empower the human.   These driver-oriented systems represent the near-term opportunity for service and safety system design.

What if ZipCar is the Friendster vs Uber as Facebook in the Mobility 2.0 Industry?

I should begin by stating that I am a huge fan of Zipcar and its brilliant and eloquent Founder Robin Chase. And I believe ZipCar will continue to be a disruptive force in transportation.

My blog post title is really more to provoke and get pageviews than to throw Zipcar’s future under the bus!

I only question the long term viability of their current business model which is a car ownership alternative.

The purpose of this post is to explore service innovations that transform existing fleets around point-to-point business models rather than ‘per-hour’ based revenues.  I believe there is an incumbent base of fleet operators waiting to transform their commercial and residential services.

In its current form, I find Uber more disruptive in leveraging the operational side of fleets and transforming how consumers view mobility as a service (not simply car ownership as a service!)

Uber also has the right people on the bus looking at its Leadership (including Stumble Upon Founder; see Crunchbase Profile] and Bay area home base.  Never underestimate the power of media attention.   I wish them success in 2011-12 and hope that we start to explore the future of fleets as a source of transformative change!

*Disclosure: Recent Client

Part One of Series:
The Future of Programming (for Non-Programmers)

Today we are witnessing the rise of the Programmer as one of the most important enabling actors in the global knowledge economy.

These individuals and communities who design and build software that power computing devices and networks that permeate our world might occupy ‘the’ drivers seat of change in the 21st century.  And yet – who they are – what they do – and how they do it remains a mystery to most people in the world.

Programmers have been behind many of the enabling ‘new economy’ dynamics of the early 21st century: bootstrapped startup culture, open source, social media and networks, platforms and networked-based business models, hacking and mash-ups, remote working and collaboration, real-time, data visualization, high frequency ‘algo’ trading, and radical transparency.

Most of these things emerged out of left-brained geek culture led by early adopter programmer communities.

Whether you embrace a ‘market-oriented‘, ‘techno-optimist‘ or ‘sustainable economy‘ worldview, it seems impossible to envision a 21st century of transformational social, economic and environmental change without a central Role of the Programmer.  We cannot expand capital markets, democratize access to information (or radical transparency), or scale an advanced cleantech world without software driving the entire process.

Programmers as Systems Designers

Looking beyond 2010 – programming has less to do with ‘web connected desktop computers’ and more to do with software reshaping every aspect of human society from financial trading markets to laboratory research, to monitoring natural ecosystems or our own self-direct learning.

Programmers are already moving forward to emerging industries -’smart’ infrastructure (energy/transportation), nanoscale materials design, robotics, education/learning systems, security/military, and all the so-called ’2.0′ versions of government,  healthcare, agriculture and food.

Software is the virtual lubricant for this yet to be built global system of systems – and we get nowhere without understanding (and embracing) the Programmer as a key enabling actor on the world stage.

The Left-Brained Future: Foundations of our Knowledge Economy

We are familiar with the popular professions associated with the supposed right brain Knowledge Economy – it is designers, entrepreneurs, and other ‘creatives’ who are celebrated.

Yet, that we can even indulge in more creative right brain economic activities, is only the result of typically left brained programmers automating the world and reducing the demand for human attention to the routine tasks.

The creative class workforce would not exist without the software-hardware infrastructure coded by geek class programmers.  Nor would many of our most celebrated companies and industries.

When Apple, Google, Facebook, or Twitter succeed it is because they have cultivated strong relationships with programmers (e.g. developers) who drive their platforms forward.

When an entrepreneur enters the market with a new concept, it is likely that the barriers to entry were knocked down by programmers who disrupted in the incumbent marketplace with new tools.

When a Wall Street company sees profits it is largely because programmers were involved in designing the analytic and analysis tools to shape investment strategies – or via high frequency trading ‘algos’ that dominate trading exchanges.

When a Biotechnology or Cleantech company announces a breakthrough product- it was likely built via simulation software tools designed by programmers.

We might not understand how it works, but software will likely shape the majority of  social and economic activities in the 21st century.  Our future will be programmed.

A Place in History?
My belief is that the Programmer will earn a spot in history – as relevant to social change as past archetype roles.

Every major era of massive social-economic change has seen new archetypes emerge as the symbols of transformation.  The Agricultural-Town era had the farmer and craftsman,  the Industrial Age had the factory owner and worker. Our information-rich and business oriented world is often embodied by the archetypes of CEO, banker, entrepreneur and the consumer.

But at the center of most all modern economic activity is the Programmer – those individuals and communities who design and build software that power computing devices and networks that will soon permeate most aspects of the planet.

Next up
This Series is designed to highlight how Programmers might transform our society, economies and environment. And to explore ways in which humanity might tap its inner geek to bring about more transformative change capable of breaking beyond today’s performance limits.

• Part One: Why the Future will be Programmed
• Part Two: Programmers as 21st Century Learners
• Part Three: Programmers  - From Social Web to Wisdom Web
• Part Four: Programmers and World of Finance & Capital Markets
• Part Five: Programmers – Governance, Power & Radical Transparency
• Part Six: Programmers – Smart Infrastructure & Situational Awareness
• Part Seven: Programmers – Science and Simulation
• Part Eight: The Rise of the Female Programmer
• Part Nine:  Programmers – Future of Work

Image (Thanks!):

Flickr by Sebestian Bergmann Creative Commons Attribution

Having started off the New Year with two radio interviews on the future of transporation and energy (Coast to Coast ; The Takeaway), I expanded my notes into a list of wish list for  the year(s) ahead.

• The End Game is Integration of Storage and Molecule Fuel Conversion!
  ‘Electric’ refers to the electric motor (not the battery!). Battery (a storage system) plug-in EVs are only phase one of a multi-decade transition!  The most likely future for EVs is integration of molecule fuel conversion and storage!   That means batteries + fuel cells!The path forward is about lower cost to mass and that gives  clear advantage to fuel cell conversion of chemical fuels to electricity.  For journalists that means learning the basics of energy systems.   Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles ARE electric vehicles.  It is accurate to say that Fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are not ready today, but it is inaccurate to claim that ‘they are decades away’.  Five major automakers have 2015 as target production date for FCVs and it is difficult to imagine storage systems alone meeting the needs of next generation EVs beyond 2020.
• Focus on the Manufacturing Footprint & Fleets First!
  In 2011, we might finally sell EVs as the banner for 21st century advanced manufacturing.  Forget about its eco-footprint,  the auto industry’s problem is its manufacturing footprint!  The mechanical combustion engine is too big, bulky and causes a nightmare for building various chassis and managing a complex supply chain. Automakers cannot continue with their poor factory capacity utilization and must reinvent how cars are built.  EVs provide this opportunity.Electric motors powered by fuel cells and batteries lead to one place – an inevitable lower cost manufacturing platform based on scalable and modular components.
  (Read Open source hardware startups; GM’s Skateboard Chassis; Ford’s Global Platform)

  Also – in 2011 we stop trying to sell phase one of the EV age to Average Consumers, and Focus on Fleets first! Fleets are the best strategy for controlling costs on building plug-in infrastructure and testing operation of EVs in the real world.  Let’s wait until third generation EVs based on fuel cell integration and molecule fuel infrastructure are ready- then target the masses!  Building out plug-in infrastructure for the masses could turn into a sour investment.

• Software & the Augmented Driving Experience
  The battle isn’t GM vs Ford – it is GM OnStar vs Ford Sync.  The software facilitated driving/mobility experience is the big story for the next decade.  And it goes far beyond just bringing distracting entertainment into the car.  It is about making driving safer and more efficient.Mainstreaming of memes to watch in 2011 ‘connected cars‘ (e.g. Cars talking to other cars) to ‘grow with flow’;  and ‘situational awareness‘ based on cars that talk to the human.  The mental shift to watch is our evolution from  ’Driver to Captain‘ as we step up the value chain of operating a vehicle vs navigating a complex systems.  Software does not replace the human, it augments it and shifts our notion of ‘operation and control’ to a higher level of awareness!
• Data-Enabled Mobility Entrepreneurs is another story waiting to go mainstream.  The value chain of mobility experiences has a new rung that is enabled by data-driven decisions and services.   Startup costs are lower and experience in the industry are not required!

  A new generation entrepreneurs are testing social and real-time services around car-sharing concepts.  But beyond this feel good strategy of car sharing –  it mass transit that could benefit most from more on-demand transit options.  Coordinating transit and fleet services is a concept to watch in 2011.

• Pay-as-you-drive/go Business Models – are being tested by insurance companies and could pave the way for the inevitable (and necessary) shift of paying for road infrastructure based on gallons of fuel to a paying per actual use.
• Parking, Parking, Parking - City planners are realizing that market driven parking infrastructure is their great ‘lever’ for change.  2011 could be a big year for changing expectations about ‘free parking’.
• On-Demand Fleets – Start-up UberCab might outshine ZipCar – as it attempts to mainstream personal on-demand transportation solutions.   Early adopter Metro residents will refuse to ‘hail’ a cab, preferring to connect directly with drivers.

World Wide Web Part Three: The Wisdom Web
Web 1.0: Get Online!
No problem, let’s build a Website.

Web 2.0: Get Social!
No problem, let’s build a community.

Web 3.0: Get Smarter!
How do we do that?

The Web’s Reality Check: Not there yet!
The web has not yet matured as a platform for lifelong learning.  It was born in a world dominated by broadcast media and advertising, and was therefore shaped into a communications platform designed for our Consumer Culture, not a Learner Culture.

There is no denying that more information via websites and sharing via social networks has transformed many lives, but it is not yet clear how the web will evolve as a platform for personalized learning.

Web 1.0 websites are useful for expanding access but limited in their functionality as an integrated learning platform. Web 2.0 social  networks are useful in gathering like-minded people with shared interests and values, but are limited in challenging deeply held assumptions and beliefs against those held by different communities!  The promise of social learning is strong, but for now remains overrated and oversold by consultants who get paid when you build 2.0-style services.

So what might bring lifelong learning to the web?

Many web gurus believe that it may be driven by a combination of  Web 3.0 elements including: more intuitive web interfaces (e.g. mobile devices, personal assistants, video),  data (semantic / linked) and cloud-based software applications that scale to transform the web into a platform for effective lifelong learning.

All of these social technology factors intrigue me– but for now we can focus on the least sexiest, but potentially most relevant to the wisdom web!

Data as a Bridge to Wisdom

Data-driven web platforms are positioning themselves as a new disruptive force in business and society.  But to emerge as an effective source of change – data will need to overcome many challenges and find the right marketing campaign for mainstreaming adoption in life, business and governance.

In most cases data on the web is intimately linked to other web-era movements such as personal relevance of mash-up applications, the political significance of trust and transparency, and the marketplace value of real-time web information.  But is there an more all-encompassing marketing strategy here?

My gut says that data needs a new PR campaign based on the vision of a web that supports wisdom and a learner culture that spans public and private sectors.

The best framework for the Wisdom Web is based on the continuum commonly referred to as: Data to Information to Knowledge to Wisdom (DIKW).  And there is no limit to where data-to-wisdom can be applied.  Let’s imagine a future for:

• Government / Governance – Governments are in the driver’s seat when it comes to unlocking vast amounts of data and releasing data sets for use by third-parties who wish to advance transparency and effectiveness of applied policy decisions.  More broadly applied to institutional governance (e.g. Boards)- data may be used to re-build public trust around observable and measurable data sources (quantitative/qualitative) instead of mere opinions.
• Infrastructure – Data is the foundation of visions associated with ‘smart’ planetary infrastructures that support the flows of people, products, services, energy and information. Data-enabled platforms will help make infrastructures more safe, efficient and open to business model innovations.
• Media – The incumbent world of broadcast media has a problem of fragmentation in the creation, re-mixing/manipulation and re-distribution of content.  Data opens up an opportunity for major media brands to become trusted sources of data sets and tools/services for generating insights and learning about the world.  
• Business – The use of computer-based information technology in the world of business decision making and risk management is still in early days (relatively speaking!).  Despite the use of complex models and forecasting tools, most business decisions are made without robust sources of data related to observable and measurable sources ranging from raw numbers to expressions of human sentiment based on experiences in real-world applications (et al).  Most client and customer relationship management systems are based on historical or lagging (not leading) indicators. But this is changing!  There has been a clear shift in the language of enterprise software service providers (e.g. IBM, Oracle, Microsoft) towards selling data-based services around ‘real-time‘ situational awareness and predictive analytics.
• Personal/Family Data –  Can data be used to change our behavior?  It is hard to say definitively because we have no real world experience.  Just stop and think about how little data we integrate into our personal lives (e.g. health/wellness, media consumption, work habits, travel patterns, et al)  Now imagine a future in which data of observable and aggregated  phenomena is the starting point for all of our questions – and the foundation of our major assumptions about how the world works.
• [Note: Examples of these data-wisdom applications can be found below...]

Having said all that, let’s be clear…!

Data is merely a bridge from pure information to knowledge to wisdom.

Data is not limited to numbers.  It is about gathering to see patterns, synthesizing and mashing up data sets to create new insights into how the world works, and moving closer towards applied wisdom in our lives.

And we must recognize that data can also be abused to manipulate our understandings of the world.  The best strategy to avoid manipulation is to teach people of all ages and all backgrounds how to use data  as a bridge to knowlege and wisdom.

Wisdom is the end game- and I hope it finds its way into the vernacular of the web as a platform for lifelong learning!

Learn More:
Data – Information – Knowledge – Wisdom Resources

Related concepts:

• Operations Research; Business Intelligence; Knowledge Management (KM); Personal Knowledge Management; Data stores (Relational/Non-relational); Learning Management Systems (LMS); Cloud computing;

DIKW Continuum

Often attributed in its framing by Russell Ackoff, a systems theorist and professor of organizational change, the content of the human mind can be classified into five categories:

• Data: consists of ‘raw’ observations and measurements
• Information: data that are processed to be useful; provides answers to “who”, “what”, “where”, and “when” questions
• Knowledge: is applied!   It is something we use in the world to answer ‘how’ questions
• Understanding: appreciation of “why”
• Wisdom: evaluated understanding. ; knowing ‘when’ to apply knowledge

My bookmarks:

• My deli.cio.us social bookmarking / tags:  data; govt 2.0; govt20; NOSQL (non-relational database); database; visualization;

Blogs:

• Flowingdata.com
• http://www.knowledgecartography.org/
• http://eagereyes.org/
• http://infosthetics.com/
• http://www.knowledgeboard.com/index.html
• http://www.datawrangling.com/
• http://machine-learning.blogspot.com/
• http://allthingsdistributed.com/
• http://measuringmeasures.com/

Notable Blog Posts

• Coming Data Explosion (w/ video talk by Google’s Marisa Mayer)
• Read Write Web: State of Linked Data 2010
• Transparency Cycle graph
• http://radar.oreilly.com/2010/03/open-data-pointers.html
• The-future-is-big-data-in-the-cloud/ (Om Media)
• Read Write Web post with Tim O’Reilly
• Linked Data is Future of Knowledge Web
• Data: a Startups secret money making asset
• Pharma Industry explores open data projects
• http://techcrunch.com/2010/03/16/big-data-freedom/
• http://www.fastcompany.com/1604125/twitter-predicts-box-office-sales-better-than-anything-else
• Sunlight announces winners of Design America contest

Web memes /models:

• Linked_Data; Semantic Web; Internet of Things

Emerging Platforms

• Google Public Data
• Microsoft – Web N-gram services
• Amazon Hosted Public Datasets
• Tableausoftware.com/public

• IBM Many Eyes
• Freebase / Metaweb
• DBpedia
• OpenCalais (Thomson Reuters)
• Amazon 3 Public Data Sets
• BioGrid 3.0

Personal data platforms

• Daytum
• Trixietracker.com (Baby)
• Dopplr (Personal Travel)
• Bodybugg.com
• 23andme.com (Personal Genome data)
• Patientslikeme.com
• Fitbit.com
• Myzeo.com (Sleep data)
• Asthma  - http://asthmapolis.com/

Government

• US DATA GOV
  • Energy 
  • MyFoodapedia.gov
  • Health data /Connectopensource.org
  • USASpending.gov
  • HHS Community Health Data Initiative
  • DC Data Catalog
  • DataGov Community page
• UK Open Data
• Data Market Iceland – http://datamarket.com/
• Sweden - http://www.opengov.se/
• http://www.wheredoesmymoneygo.org/ (UK)

Third Party Government/Governance:

• Sunlight Labs –
  • Design for America – a 10-week design and data visualization contest
  • National Data Catalog Project
• Greenplum.com
• TransparencyData.com,
• Phoenix Data Hackers; Vancouver Open Data project/
• http://manybills.researchlabs.ibm.com/

• National Data Catalog
• MeasureofAmerica.org
• FollowTheMoney.org

Institutions / Organizations (list is a work in progress!)

• World Bank Data
  • President Robert B. Zoellick video: http://vimeo.com/11059994
• Info Chimps: http://infochimps.org/ – catalog of datasets

Media – examples

• UK Guardian Data Store.
• NY Times - data services and tools (e.g. Visualization via IBM’s Many Eyes)

Platforms / Software-Services

• Streambase.com
• Factual
• Konstanz Information Miner – KNIME
• GEPHI: Open VisualizationPlatform
• Mendeley Research Collaboration
• Paraview
• Chartle.net
• Thematicmapping.org
• http://www.stockmapper.com/
• http://www.opendatacommons.org/
• http://sciencecommons.org/
• Museum of Learning – DIKW Links
• http://upstream.openlibrary.org/
• http://www.diggingintodata.org/ (Contest)
• http://www.talend.com/index.php
• http://crowdflower.com/
• Open Science project blog post
• http://linkeddata.org/
• http://www.isitopendata.org/
• http://pantonprinciples.org/ (Applied for Science)
• http://blog.okfn.org/
• http://flightcaster.com/

Data Web concepts

• DIKW Overview by Gene Bellinger (et al); Wikipedia DIKW;
• Operational Datastore; NoSQL ‘Movement’; RDF/Semantic Web standards;

Books

• The Fourth Paradigm: Data-Intensive Scientific Discovery

Events / Papers

• http://www.kdd.org/kdd2010/papers.shtml

People to research:

• Russell Ackoff; [Publication PDF;  Ackoff’s Five Assumptions process;
• Kevin Kelly’s Quantified Self
• Designers /Visualization Experts - Sha Hwang;
• Ackoff – Systems based Thinking; Ackoff Center Blog (archival);
• http://del.icio.us/pskomoroch/dataset

Videos

A true ‘event’ that led to first

TED Talk by Hans Rosling- that made Data ‘sexy’!

Is the auto industry preparing to introduce a new product+service category for the future of mobility?  Could software and sensing systems transform the chariot or pod form factor into a commercially viable mobility-as-service solution in the years ahead?

Or is this all just for auto show eye-candy, PopSci magazine covers, and Hollywood sets rather than city streets?

The answer depends on whether you think the future of mobility will be much of the same, or different!

GM Continues to Rethink Mobility Solutions
This week a unique and globally symbolic partnership of General Motors-Segway-SAIC unveiled their EN-V (Electric Networked Vehicle) concept category at the Shanghai World Expo. The EN-V, which displayed fully autonomous operation, is the descendant of the P.U.M.A. (Personal Urban Mobility and Accessibility – video below) platform which was demonstrated on the streets of New York and Brooklyn in the Spring 2009.  Three separate EN-V models, each designed by teams located in different regions around the world, were branded as: Jiao (Pride), Miao (Magic) and Xiao (Laugh).

Confronting ‘Red Ocean’ Reality of Global Auto Industry

Where might these new form factors and software systems fit into future growth within the mobility industry?

First, we must recognize the lack of good options for global auto industry executives.  The industry’s new vehicle and finance revenue-based business models are challenged on almost all fronts.  Few doubt worldwide growth prospects as we look forward, but competition is very intense and it has become difficult to find a manufacturing-based competitive advantage (remember, ‘most cars are made by the same robot‘).  Industry insiders recognize the structural challenges to managing costs and capacity utilization around combustion engine vehicles.  (We still do not understand the implications of China unleashing its full capacity as it comes online!)

The other challenge is that growth is shifting from traditional western suburban to more urban Asian markets.  Let’s not forget about servicing markets changed by aging populations!  And wouldn’t it be interesting to break open the market demographic to access beyond 16-18 year olds who require an operator’s license.

Back to the present!  Competing for incremental market share gains within existing ‘red ocean‘ markets is not easy and not always profitable if you have to give incentives to earn every buyer!  Not only is it easier to build quality vehicles, but with the right budget resources you can hire a fantastic marketing and ad agency to build your brand in any market you desire!

I struggle to see profitable boom years ahead based on ‘business as usual‘ strategies and suspect that industry leaders are exploring more radical shifts in their cost structures and business models.

Software + Service as a ‘Blue Ocean’ Strategy
If the global auto industry does succeed in creating a new rung on the mobility value chain it will likely be a combination of product plus service.  And I imagine they will follow a ‘low end disruption‘ path to growth by avoiding direct competition with traditional vehicle ownership and instead focus on creating new demand around aftermarket, software enhanced driving experiences, and service/access mobility solutions.

I see the EN-V as a candidate for both future software and service solutions.   Most people will recognize today’s ZipCar service-access business model – but it is essentially a car ownership alternative.  (I am for the record, pro-ZipCar!)

EN-V like pods and chariot formats are likely to offer other mobility solutions such as ‘last mile‘ point-to-point connections to mass transit hubs and high traffic destinations, as well as short point to point trips.  They are easily organized and managed as distributed fleets and if we assume the timing of their emergence will coincide with remote-controlled or autonomous operation, we might be looking at a fundamentally new business model on the horizon.

Still think it is just auto show eye-candy?!

These futuristic pod chassis have been demonstrated at car shows for many decades, but the hardware and software systems that make them viable are changing.  And there are big profits waiting for the industry beyond the mechanical combustion engine chassis!

Pods and chariots are ripe low cost platforms for developing telematic software and ‘drive by wire‘ control systems that assist drivers and turn vehicles into sensing devices.  They are ideal for helping the  global auto industry evolve towards new manufacturing platforms based on wheel based electric motors powered by integration of batteries and fuel cells.  (i.e. It is much easier to build 2 wheeled fuel cell vehicles that weigh several hundred pounds, than a monster SUV).

One finally comparative note – there is a different product life cycle here!  So the strongly held assumption that all new ‘cars end up being on the road for twenty years’ might have to be questioned!

Skeptics vs Mobility Entrepreneurs
Yes, I know, that these concept cards are easy pooh-pooh targets.  Skeptics point out ‘where is storage’, ‘getting side swiped by an SUV’, ‘lead to more congestion if it replaces walking’, et al.  All valid observations, but these are not the types of people capable of creating new value, they are simply interested in capturing marginal returns by extending today’s transportation ecosystem forward. When we try to think about substituting new for legacy it seems silly when human behavior comes into play.

The entrepreneurs search for new ways to enter the market and platforms that help shift revenues from per new car sales to aftermarket upgrades and per mile software-service mobility experiences.

Skeptics will see the future of the auto industry as simply selling cars and SUVs to suburban soccer moms.  And focus only own ownership.

Entrepreneurs will look beyond 2015 and see global growth markets around aging segments, urban Asian markets- and seamless integration with mass transit (e.g. high speed rail; rapid bus transit) that all benefit from access /service business models.

Skeptics will focus on the old, crusty combustion engine form factor that they think customers want (i.e. faster horse approach).  And they will assume that scared drivers will always prefer big vehicle armor as their safety strategy.

Entrepreneurs will see opportunities around new designs based on sleek skateboard electric vehicle chassis.   And these innovators will see software as the most effective safety strategy.  They will build communication networks so that ‘connected cars’ do not crash.   The way forward is not hiding increasingly distracted drivers behind bigger cars, it is transforming our assumptions about safety by increasing the human’s situational awareness and holding them accountable to their safety performance.

Skeptics will roll their eyes at autonomous vehicles, entrepreneurs will see an opportunity to bring entirely new cohorts (e.g. no driver’s license required!) into the mobility industry.

Ok, I am done…

Optimistic but Still Waiting for Innovation!
So that is a vision for the global auto industry!  But for now, we must accept that the EN-V type pods and chariots are not going to be on the streets anytime soon.  Until then, they remain easy targets as futuristic eye-candy!

I do not want to be accused of over-hyping the future, but this low capital cost platform is ripe for innovation – and the service market is a viable disruptive business strategy that could surprise us post 2015-25!  For now, I am just glad to see GM and Segway continuing to evolve the EN-V autonomous operation and form factor!

[Full disclosure: I do not own GM stock, but I have had a man crush on the company ever since Larry Burns popularized the Autonomy Skateboard Chassis!  And I have always believed in Segway. So there is the source of my bias and optimism!!]

More images, videos of GM-Segway PUMA and related posts

Story via MSNB.com; Scientific America;  UK Autoexpress; Wired; Consumer Reports; China CarTimes;

Related posts: Telematics Transform Driver into Captain;

Photos by General Motors (CC License)

A lot can happen in 10 years when looking at the launch phase of new industries!  In 1990, the ‘information superhighway‘ was an abstraction not fully understood by the public.  Most people did not care about computers- or demand products or services that would help them connect or be social on this digital highway. And few incumbent business leaders took its disruptive potential seriously.

By 2000 the Internet was the default platform for entrepreneurship and innovation even though the ‘web’ was still in its infancy.   Some ideas were too early and over-hyped, while others were tremendously profitable.  The industry did not mature in a decade, but it was launched as a real world platform that continues to change society and business.

Could 2010-2020 be the same type of ‘launch’ decade for nanotechnology?

If we want the answer to be yes then we must postpone futuristic visions of nano-robots swimming around our bloodstream, and focus on leveraging phase one nanomaterials that include: nanotubes, nanoparticles and nanosheets (graphene).

Instead of trying to sell visions of molecular assembly factories, we should focus on nanomaterials that can  be integrated into existing manufacturing techniques.

What Nano needs is a decade of incremental innovations and a massive PR campaign!

And if there is one element to highlight and demystify –  it is carbon!

A ‘Designer+Maker’ Vision for Launching Nano
In 2020, the measures of success and prosperity should not be the number of nano enhanced products, but the momentum created by entrepreneurs and leaders acting upon new visions of industrial sectors including energy, electronics and appliances, healthcare, transportation, textiles, infrastructure and consumer products.

The hope is a new generation of Craftsman and Industrialists reinventing the value chain of the material world as product and systems designers and low volume manufacturers of  low cost, high performance materials.

Here within the US this potential launch decade for nano-materials might help to accelerate momentum around the vision long held by ‘DIY’ / Maker culture and captured in President Obama’s inaugural speech … in which greatness and prosperity are delivered by: “…the risk-takers, the doers, the makers of things.”

This message has been adapted for talks on education and ‘teaching young people how to be makers of things, not just consumers of things‘.  This ‘maker’ vision is also reflected by industrial business leaders wishing to expand US high value manufacturing exports.

There is, of course, a  cultural challenge associated with this ‘designer-maker‘ case for nanotechnology. For half a century, the US economy has been driven by consumer spending and policies that favor outsourcing manufacturing abroad.   It was great while it lasted.  And now all economists agree that growth in global consumer spending will happen outside of the US!  Yet, moving forward a strong case can be made for economic restructuring  based on the US designing and building for/with the rest of the world.

These are still very early days… but 2010-2020 might be an important decade for selling this designer-builder vision. 

21st Century Craftsman & Industrialists
Why Shape Matters: Nanotubes, Nanoparticles & Nanosheets
Nanotechnology is a scale, not a thing.  At the nanoscale, familiar and well understood elements on the periodic table begin to exhibit very unique properties (e.g. electrical, mechanical, thermal, et al) because we have changed their basic shape and structure.

When you change the shape and structure of your foundation material, other molecules (and light/electrons) react and interact differently when they encounter it.  (e.g. nano vs micro particles of silver exhibit different properties)  This could be applied to materials used in computer chips, water desalination membranes, fuel cells, batteries, pharmaceuticals, or plastics.  There is no industry or product left untouched by nanoscale material design.

Shape matters.  And the nano age is opening up a new world of shapes for us to explore.

Beyond shapes the element that is most important to this first phase of nanotechnology is carbon.  And the formats that matter most include:

• Carbon nanotubes (single/multi-walled)
• Carbon-based nanoparticles that incorporate other elements (e.g. nickel, iron, silver, platinum, et al)
• Carbon graphene sheets (thin layers of carbon)

These three forms of carbon are likely to give rise to new industrial concepts capable of altering our assumptions of what is possible in materials world via:  organic electronics (e.g. carbon based electronics), nanocomposites, nanostructured catalaysts, MEMS (micro electromechanical systems), and nano sensor arrays

Whether or not we are entering a  ’launch decade’ for nanomaterials might be based on two fundamental shifts in the sector:

2010-2020 From Synthesis to Functionalization
& From Boomers to Gen X & Millennial Generation Researchers

The next decade will likely be shaped by two major shifts – the first is our expanding knowledge base and applied engineering prowess from an age of characterization (learning what things do; nature of nano) and ‘synthesis‘ (how to make them) to an era of ‘functionalization‘ (actually integrating them into manufacturing and applied processes).

In other words, the past twenty years have been focused on learning to make (synthesis) nanotubes, nanoparticles and nanosheets (graphene) – and the next decade will be focused on producing these elements on scale and integrated into other materials and manufacturing techniques. The focus is bringing nanotechnology out of labs and into production facilities and real world markets.

The other major shift relates to the people who serve as researchers, entrepreneurs, regulators, and consumers. It has been Baby Boomers leading the charge since the early 1990s when nanoscale research began in earnest. This generation gave shape to the first knowledge base of nanostructured materials that seemed to contradict many previously assumed principles of molecular interactions.

This Boomer generation has also been cultivating the next generation of researchers who arrive in labs with a more solid collective knowledge base of nanostructured materials and fewer assumptions about what isn’t possible.  These ‘Gen X‘ and Millennial generation researchers might bring a very different spirit to nano era that is more entrepreneurial and applied.

These two transitions will also need a greater context to have any meaning to leaders and citizens of the world.  And that context might have less to do with technology, and everything to do with demographics, economics and industrial capacity and ecological sustainability based on micro-scale applications of natural resources.

Nanoscale science and engineering allows us to rethink how we use key elements like iron ore, hydrocarbon, precious metals and carbon.   And in the most optimistic scenario might lead to a new industrial revolution that is more sustainable and profitable than today’s current material manufacturing model.

———————————————————————————–

A brief interlude on the science and recent research:

Carbon nanotubes (CNTs)

CNTs are versatile cylindrical materials that have a wide range of performance properties:

• mechanical properties as reinforcement in low-cost, high performance lightweight composites
• electrical properties for semiconductor applications
• sensing abilities for imaging and gas molecule detection
• chemical properties to process chemical fuels (e.g. synthetic fuels, hydrogen, biofuels)
• thermal properties for absorbing heath; transforming heat to electricity

[Safety is of course a top priority - but not an issue I will cover in this post!  I will only note that federal regulators have been working with researchers and manufacturers in assessing risks and impacts of CNT nanocomposites are automotive industry, aviation/aerospace, electronics-telecommunications, medicine, and recreational goods industries.]

What matters is real world production levels!   We are in year one of real commercial scale volume by early industry leaders such as Bayer MaterialScience,  Thomas-Swan and Unidym.   By the end of the decade we would expect incumbents in today’s petrochemical and materials manufacturing to be competing in this space!

And while we should be monitoring commericalization efforts, foresight commands us to understand the pipeline and roadmap beyond 2010.

Recent notable breakthroughs include:

• Rice University announced a method for mass producing carbon nanotubes using fluid processing found in the $300 billion plastics industry
• New method for separating metalic nanotubes
• Zyvex Performance Materials to Supply Carbon Nanotube Composites to Outerlimits Offshore Powerboats
• Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute embedded nanotube array sensor and method of making a nanotube polymer composite that can sense its own condition.
• Transparent carbon nanotube heating elements for use in plastic and ceramic window panes that may be used in motor vehicles, locomotives, or aircraft.
• A roll to roll process for making RFID tag
• Massachusetts Institute of Technology sensor array able to detect single molecules emanating from a single living cell that might find use in treating cancer
• CNT Catalysts for fuel production via Fischer-Tropsch process for making hydrocarbons
• LG Electronics Patents Nanofilters for Indoor Air Conditioning Units

So much for ‘nanotubes’! And forgive me for skipping carbon support structures used in nanoparticles!  This post is already too long!

Graphene
The other major platform for carbon nanomaterial is a thin sheet known as graphene.   Graphene, which is different from graphite in pencils, is a one layer thick sheet of carbon. While CNTs were first isolated and synthesized in the 1990s, graphene research is less than a decade old.

Graphene is on record as the highest surface area material and strongest known material yet synthesized, but most researchers cherish graphene for their electrical properties allow electrons to speed along faster than silicon-based transistors (and also absorb heat!).

Graphene is a likely candidate for high performance alternatives to silicon and precious metal based electronics. And based on the rate of progress and easier obstacles compared to CNTs (e.g. chirality of metal vs insulator versions of CNTs) and shape, I am more confident in graphene applications as the disruptive force for near term carbon nanomaterial applciations.

Recent highlights:

• Step towards mass graphene production
• IBM created the first graphene based transistor
• Stanford University develop new concept for low cost, flexible organic lighting-emitting diodes (OLEDs)
• Swedish and American researchers produce fully recyclable OLED screen
• Single-step technique produces both p-type and n-type doping for future graphene device
• MEMS micro-electro-mechanical systems based actuator devices have fundamental performance
• Rice U Develops Technique for Application of Graphene Materials and Hexagonal Boron Nitride Films in Microelectronics
• Graphene based Hydrogen Storage
• Another graphene based H2 storage (break DoE capacity targets)

———————————————————————————-

A Roadmap for 2010 – 2020

So how do we work towards making this next decade the launch decade for carbon nanomaterials?

First, we need to put aside the excessive hype and uninformed skepticism –  and be practical!

We do not need to over hype nanotechnology to have a serious conversation about its potential to change the physical and digital foundations of our major industrial sectors.

And we do not need to pooh-pooh – or roll our eyes – when we hear about nanotechnology’s first phase of development focused on additives, coatings and simple nanocomposites.

Nobody expects the commercialization of the most fantastical concepts (e.g. nano robots floating through your blood stream), we should focus on Phase One nanoscale engineering based on ‘tubes’, ‘particles’ and ‘sheets’.

The most practical way forwards is to focus on integrating nanomaterials into existing manufacturing techniques (rather than introduce novel nano-production systems).

Second, we need to engage the next generation of business entrepreneurs and leaders in pushing forward the mainstream campaigns for discussing the benefits and risks associated with nanomaterials.

And in this public awareness process we must recognize the limitations of having effective public or political conversations regarding carbon nanomaterials. It is a subject far off the radar of most people in the world, and it is not feasible to make any sound forecasts of what might happen by tapping current day opinions.

Most people are unlikely to see carbon as a source of great wealth creation and the foundation for new industries, anymore than people in 1950s could look at sand (silica dioxide)  and see it as the pillar material for the telecommunications revolution that occurred in the second half of the 20th century.

So we will need leaders to explain the vision, and framers and curators to explain our progress.

And if we are lucky, a successful business person who makes a lot of money on a breakthrough nanoproduct can’t hurt the image of the industry!

We need to close the knowledge and perception gap of what nanotechnology is… and isn’t.  And then we might be in a position to have an informed public debate on how much we should invest, and when.

For now, I hope that researchers continue to build bridges to the entrepreneurial community around the three foundations of carbon nanomaterials: nanotubes, nanoparticles and nanosheets (graphene)

Want to learn more…?   A few resources below..

Following Carbon on Twitter;

• http://twitter.com/nanowerk
• http://twitter.com/materialsviews
• http://twitter.com/nanopatents
• http://twitter.com/materialspeter
• http://twitter.com/explorenano
• http://twitter.com/kristinalford/nanotech
• http://twitter.com/tim_harper
• http://twitter.com/nonikatz
• http://twitter.com/nonikatz/nanotech
• http://twitter.com/thenanoclast
• http://twitter.com/AZoNano
• http://twitter.com/nanotechweb
• http://twitter.com/F_I_N_K
• http://twitter.com/nanosw
• http://twitter.com/MANCEF
• http://twitter.com/nanosw
• http://twitter.com/Nanotechnology/lists/memberships

My delicious bookmarks on carbon:

• http://delicious.com/garrygolden/carbon
• http://delicious.com/garrygolden/nano-materials

Interesting sites:

• Element Display
• LANL Govt Lab Periodic Table
• Many Faces of Carbon -
• PSU Nanotube page
• Foresight Institute
• Nano Products Inventory
• [Periodic Table reconsidered PDF])

Companies

• Bayer Materials -
• Unidym
• Graphene Solutions

Carbon’s industrial formats including pure carbon, carbon+oxygen, carbon+hydrogen:

• carbon
• carbon monoxide (CO)
• carbon dioxide (CO2)
• methane (CH4)
• propane
• ethylene (C2H4)
• acetylene (C2H2)
• benzene (C6H6)
• octane CH₃(CH₂)₆CH₃
• acetic acid (CH3COOH)
• C22
• Fullerenes C60

Stanford Nanoelectronics Group presents “Nanotechnology – Carbon Nanotube Electronics”

Carbon Nanotube flexible speaker

Fujitsu Laboratories New Carbon Nanotube Composite : DigInfo

Intel Science Talent Search 2009 – Philip Streich

From: Giant-Stroke, Superelastic
Carbon Nanotube Aerogel Muscles. Science, Vol. 323 Issue 5921, March 19, 2009.

Past, Present & Future of Craftsman & Industrialists
If we look to the past, we can see various stages of civilization that have been shaped by builders of things.

The first creators of things used natural materials (dirt/clay, wood, stone),  before turning to heat and reactive additives to transform ores into metals/alloys (copper/bronze/steel).  In the 20th century we turned to modern chemistry and hydrocarbon resources to synthesize polymers/composites (plastics), and then new tools for layering/etching patterns to develop micro-structured semiconductor materials (silicon, et al).

The materials technology view of social change is not the only lens or explanation of the past, present or future, but it seems to hold particular significance as we look to a near term future shaped by nanoscale materials design andbio-industrial processes.

Image credit: http://www.thp.uni-koeln.de/graphene08/ by Jannik Meyer