Garry Golden http://www.garrygolden.net Professional Futurist / Strategist / Forecaster Sun, 06 Jun 2010 20:40:23 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 en hourly 1 The Future of Data – A Web of Wisdom or Manipulation? http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/04/23/future_of_data_wisdom_web_30/ http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/04/23/future_of_data_wisdom_web_30/#comments Fri, 23 Apr 2010 18:43:51 +0000 Garry Golden http://www.garrygolden.net/?p=939

World Wide Web Part Three: The Wisdom Web
Web 1.0: Get Online!
No problem, let’s build a Website.

Web 2.0: Get Social!
No problem, let’s build a community.

Web 3.0: Get Smarter!
How do we do that?

The Web’s Reality Check: Not there yet!
The web has not yet matured as a platform for lifelong learning.  It was born in a world dominated by broadcast media and advertising, and was therefore shaped into a communications platform designed for our Consumer Culture, not a Learner Culture.

There is no denying that more information via websites and sharing via social networks has transformed many lives, but it is not yet clear how the web will evolve as a platform for personalized learning.  

Web 1.0 websites are useful for expanding access but limited in their functionality as an integrated learning platform. Web 2.0 social  networks are useful in gathering like-minded people with shared interests and values, but are limited in challenging deeply held assumptions and beliefs against those held by different communities!  The promise of social learning is strong, but for now remains overrated and oversold by consultants who get paid when you build 2.0-style services.  

So what might bring lifelong learning to the web?  

Many web gurus believe that it may be driven by a combination of  Web 3.0 elements including: more intuitive web interfaces (e.g. mobile devices, personal assistants, video),  data (semantic / linked) and cloud-based software applications that scale to transform the web into a platform for effective lifelong learning.  

All of these social technology factors intrigue me– but for now we can focus on the least sexiest, but potentially most relevant to the wisdom web!   

Data as a Bridge to Wisdom
Data-driven web platforms are positioning themselves as a new disruptive force in business and society.  But to emerge as an effective source of change – data will need to overcome many challenges and find the right marketing campaign for mainstreaming adoption in life, business and governance. 

In most cases data on the web is intimately linked to other web-era movements such as personal relevance of mash-up applications, the political significance of trust and transparency, and the marketplace value of real-time web information.  But is there an more all-encompassing marketing strategy here?  

My gut says that data needs a new PR campaign based on the vision of a web that supports wisdom and a learner culture that spans public and private sectors.  

The best framework for the Wisdom Web is based on the continuum commonly referred to as: Data to Information to Knowledge to Wisdom (DIKW).  And there is no limit to where data-to-wisdom can be applied.  Let’s imagine a future for: 

  • Government / Governance - Governments are in the driver’s seat when it comes to unlocking vast amounts of data and releasing data sets for use by third-parties who wish to advance transparency and effectiveness of applied policy decisions.  More broadly applied to institutional governance (e.g. Boards)- data may be used to re-build public trust around observable and measurable data sources (quantitative/qualitative) instead of mere opinions.
  • Infrastructure – Data is the foundation of visions associated with ’smart’ planetary infrastructures that support the flows of people, products, services, energy and information.  Data-enabled platforms will help make infrastructures more safe, efficient and open to business model innovations. 
  • Media - The incumbent world of broadcast media has a problem of fragmentation in the creation, re-mixing/manipulation and re-distribution of content.  Data opens up an opportunity for major media brands to become trusted sources of data sets and tools/services for generating insights and learning about the world.   
  • Business – The use of computer-based information technology in the world of business decision making and risk management is still in early days (relatively speaking!).  Despite the use of complex models and forecasting tools, most business decisions are made without robust sources of data related to observable and measurable sources ranging from raw numbers to expressions of human sentiment based on experiences in real-world applications (et al).  Most client and customer relationship management systems are based on historical or lagging (not leading) indicators. But this is changing!  There has been a clear shift in the language of enterprise software service providers (e.g. IBM, Oracle, Microsoft) towards selling data-based services around ‘real-time‘ situational awareness and predictive analytics.  
  • Personal/Family Data -  Can data be used to change our behavior?  It is hard to say definitively because we have no real world experience.  Just stop and think about how little data we integrate into our personal lives (e.g. health/wellness, media consumption, work habits, travel patterns, et al)  Now imagine a future in which data of observable and aggregated  phenomena is the starting point for all of our questions – and the foundation of our major assumptions about how the world works.
  • [Note: Examples of these data-wisdom applications can be found below...]

Having said all that, let’s be clear…!

Data is merely a bridge from pure information to knowledge to wisdom.  

Data is not limited to numbers.  It is about gathering to see patterns, synthesizing and mashing up data sets to create new insights into how the world works, and moving closer towards applied wisdom in our lives.  

And we must recognize that data can also be abused to manipulate our understandings of the world.  The best strategy to avoid manipulation is to teach people of all ages and all backgrounds how to use data  as a bridge to knowlege and wisdom. 

Wisdom is the end game- and I hope it finds its way into the vernacular of the web as a platform for lifelong learning!  

Learn More:
Data – Information – Knowledge – Wisdom Resources

Related concepts:

DIKW Continuum

Often attributed in its framing by Russell Ackoff, a systems theorist and professor of organizational change, the content of the human mind can be classified into five categories:

  • Data: consists of ‘raw’ observations and measurements
  • Information: data that are processed to be useful; provides answers to “who”, “what”, “where”, and “when” questions
  • Knowledge: is applied!   It is something we use in the world to answer ‘how’ questions
  • Understanding: appreciation of “why”
  • Wisdom: evaluated understanding. ; knowing ‘when’ to apply knowledge


My bookmarks:

Blogs:

Notable Blog Posts

Web memes /models:

Emerging Platforms

Personal data platforms

Government

Third Party Government/Governance:

Institutions / Organizations (list is a work in progress!)

 

Media – examples

Platforms / Software-Services

Data Web concepts

Books

Events / Papers

  • http://www.kdd.org/kdd2010/papers.shtml

People to research:

Videos

A true ‘event’ that led to first

TED Talk by Hans Rosling- that made Data ’sexy’!

 


 

 

 

 

]]> http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/04/23/future_of_data_wisdom_web_30/feed/ 0 Are GM and Segway Planning A New Mobility as Service Category? http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/03/25/env-general-motors-personal-urban-vehicle-category/ http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/03/25/env-general-motors-personal-urban-vehicle-category/#comments Thu, 25 Mar 2010 14:30:28 +0000 Garry Golden http://www.garrygolden.net/?p=879

Is the auto industry preparing to introduce a new product+service category for the future of mobility?  Could software and sensing systems transform the chariot or pod form factor into a commercially viable mobility-as-service solution in the years ahead?

Or is this all just for auto show eye-candy, PopSci magazine covers, and Hollywood sets rather than city streets?

The answer depends on whether you think the future of mobility will be much of the same, or different!

GM Continues to Rethink Mobility Solutions
This week a unique and globally symbolic partnership of General Motors-Segway-SAIC unveiled their EN-V (Electric Networked Vehicle) concept category at the Shanghai World Expo. The EN-V, which displayed fully autonomous operation, is the descendant of the P.U.M.A. (Personal Urban Mobility and Accessibility – video below) platform which was demonstrated on the streets of New York and Brooklyn in the Spring 2009.  Three separate EN-V models, each designed by teams located in different regions around the world, were branded as: Jiao (Pride), Miao (Magic) and Xiao (Laugh).

Confronting ‘Red Ocean’ Reality of Global Auto Industry
Where might these new form factors and software systems fit into future growth within the mobility industry?

First, we must recognize the lack of good options for global auto industry executives.  The industry’s new vehicle and finance revenue-based business models are challenged on almost all fronts.  Few doubt worldwide growth prospects as we look forward, but competition is very intense and it has become difficult to find a manufacturing-based competitive advantage (remember, ‘most cars are made by the same robot‘).  Industry insiders recognize the structural challenges to managing costs and capacity utilization around combustion engine vehicles.  (We still do not understand the implications of China unleashing its full capacity as it comes online!)

The other challenge is that growth is shifting from traditional western suburban to more urban Asian markets.  Let’s not forget about servicing markets changed by aging populations!  And wouldn’t it be interesting to break open the market demographic to access beyond 16-18 year olds who require an operator’s license.

Back to the present!  Competing for incremental market share gains within existing ‘red ocean‘ markets is not easy and not always profitable if you have to give incentives to earn every buyer!  Not only is it easier to build quality vehicles, but with the right budget resources you can hire a fantastic marketing and ad agency to build your brand in any market you desire!

I struggle to see profitable boom years ahead based on ‘business as usual‘ strategies and suspect that industry leaders are exploring more radical shifts in their cost structures and business models.

Software + Service as a ‘Blue Ocean’ Strategy
If the global auto industry does succeed in creating a new rung on the mobility value chain it will likely be a combination of product plus service.  And I imagine they will follow a ‘low end disruption‘ path to growth by avoiding direct competition with traditional vehicle ownership and instead focus on creating new demand around aftermarket, software enhanced driving experiences, and service/access mobility solutions.

I see the EN-V as a candidate for both future software and service solutions.   Most people will recognize today’s ZipCar service-access business model – but it is essentially a car ownership alternative.  (I am for the record, pro-ZipCar!)

EN-V like pods and chariot formats are likely to offer other mobility solutions such as ‘last mile‘ point-to-point connections to mass transit hubs and high traffic destinations, as well as short point to point trips.  They are easily organized and managed as distributed fleets and if we assume the timing of their emergence will coincide with remote-controlled or autonomous operation, we might be looking at a fundamentally new business model on the horizon.

Still think it is just auto show eye-candy?!

These futuristic pod chassis have been demonstrated at car shows for many decades, but the hardware and software systems that make them viable are changing.  And there are big profits waiting for the industry beyond the mechanical combustion engine chassis!

Pods and chariots are ripe low cost platforms for developing telematic software and ‘drive by wire‘ control systems that assist drivers and turn vehicles into sensing devices.  They are ideal for helping the  global auto industry evolve towards new manufacturing platforms based on wheel based electric motors powered by integration of batteries and fuel cells.  (i.e. It is much easier to build 2 wheeled fuel cell vehicles that weigh several hundred pounds, than a monster SUV).

One finally comparative note – there is a different product life cycle here!  So the strongly held assumption that all new ‘cars end up being on the road for twenty years’ might have to be questioned!

Skeptics vs Mobility Entrepreneurs
Yes, I know, that these concept cards are easy pooh-pooh targets.  Skeptics point out ‘where is storage’, ‘getting side swiped by an SUV’, ‘lead to more congestion if it replaces walking’, et al.  All valid observations, but these are not the types of people capable of creating new value, they are simply interested in capturing marginal returns by extending today’s transportation ecosystem forward. When we try to think about substituting new for legacy it seems silly when human behavior comes into play.

The entrepreneurs search for new ways to enter the market and platforms that help shift revenues from per new car sales to aftermarket upgrades and per mile software-service mobility experiences.

Skeptics will see the future of the auto industry as simply selling cars and SUVs to suburban soccer moms.  And focus only own ownership.

Entrepreneurs will look beyond 2015 and see global growth markets around aging segments, urban Asian markets- and seamless integration with mass transit (e.g. high speed rail; rapid bus transit) that all benefit from access /service business models.

Skeptics will focus on the old, crusty combustion engine form factor that they think customers want (i.e. faster horse approach).  And they will assume that scared drivers will always prefer big vehicle armor as their safety strategy.

Entrepreneurs will see opportunities around new designs based on sleek skateboard electric vehicle chassis.   And these innovators will see software as the most effective safety strategy.  They will build communication networks so that ‘connected cars’ do not crash.   The way forward is not hiding increasingly distracted drivers behind bigger cars, it is transforming our assumptions about safety by increasing the human’s situational awareness and holding them accountable to their safety performance.

Skeptics will roll their eyes at autonomous vehicles, entrepreneurs will see an opportunity to bring entirely new cohorts (e.g. no driver’s license required!) into the mobility industry.

Ok, I am done…

Optimistic but Still Waiting for Innovation!
So that is a vision for the global auto industry!  But for now, we must accept that the EN-V type pods and chariots are not going to be on the streets anytime soon.  Until then, they remain easy targets as futuristic eye-candy!

I do not want to be accused of over-hyping the future, but this low capital cost platform is ripe for innovation – and the service market is a viable disruptive business strategy that could surprise us post 2015-25!  For now, I am just glad to see GM and Segway continuing to evolve the EN-V autonomous operation and form factor!

[Full disclosure: I do not own GM stock, but I have had a man crush on the company ever since Larry Burns popularized the Autonomy Skateboard Chassis!  And I have always believed in Segway. So there is the source of my bias and optimism!!]

More images, videos of GM-Segway PUMA and related posts


Story via MSNB.com; Scientific America;  UK Autoexpress; Wired; Consumer Reports; China CarTimes;

Related posts: Telematics Transform Driver into Captain;

Photos by General Motors (CC License)

]]> http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/03/25/env-general-motors-personal-urban-vehicle-category/feed/ 2 Carbon Nanomaterials and Obama’s Vision of Risk-takers, the Doers, and the Makers of Things http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/03/23/carbon-nanomaterials-obama-makers-of-things/ http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/03/23/carbon-nanomaterials-obama-makers-of-things/#comments Tue, 23 Mar 2010 18:36:32 +0000 Garry Golden http://www.garrygolden.net/?p=844

A lot can happen in 10 years when looking at the launch phase of new industries!  In 1990, the ‘information superhighway‘ was an abstraction not fully understood by the public.  Most people did not care about computers- or demand products or services that would help them connect or be social on this digital highway. And few incumbent business leaders took its disruptive potential seriously.

By 2000 the Internet was the default platform for entrepreneurship and innovation even though the ‘web’ was still in its infancy.   Some ideas were too early and over-hyped, while others were tremendously profitable.  The industry did not mature in a decade, but it was launched as a real world platform that continues to change society and business.

Could 2010-2020 be the same type of ‘launch’ decade for nanotechnology?

If we want the answer to be yes then we must postpone futuristic visions of nano-robots swimming around our bloodstream, and focus on leveraging phase one nanomaterials that include: nanotubes, nanoparticles and nanosheets (graphene).

Instead of trying to sell visions of molecular assembly factories, we should focus on nanomaterials that can  be integrated into existing manufacturing techniques.

What Nano needs is a decade of incremental innovations and a massive PR campaign!

And if there is one element to highlight and demystify –  it is carbon!

A ‘Designer+Maker’ Vision for Launching Nano
In 2020, the measures of success and prosperity should not be the number of nano enhanced products, but the momentum created by entrepreneurs and leaders acting upon new visions of industrial sectors including energy, electronics and appliances, healthcare, transportation, textiles, infrastructure and consumer products.

The hope is a new generation of Craftsman and Industrialists reinventing the value chain of the material world as product and systems designers and low volume manufacturers of  low cost, high performance materials.

Here within the US this potential launch decade for nano-materials might help to accelerate momentum around the vision long held by ‘DIY’ / Maker culture and captured in President Obama’s inaugural speech … in which greatness and prosperity are delivered by: “…the risk-takers, the doers, the makers of things.”

This message has been adapted for talks on education and ‘teaching young people how to be makers of things, not just consumers of things‘.  This ‘maker’ vision is also reflected by industrial business leaders wishing to expand US high value manufacturing exports.

There is, of course, a  cultural challenge associated with this ‘designer-maker‘ case for nanotechnology. For half a century, the US economy has been driven by consumer spending and policies that favor outsourcing manufacturing abroad.   It was great while it lasted.  And now all economists agree that growth in global consumer spending will happen outside of the US!  Yet, moving forward a strong case can be made for economic restructuring  based on the US designing and building for/with the rest of the world.

These are still very early days… but 2010-2020 might be an important decade for selling this designer-builder vision. 

21st Century Craftsman & Industrialists
Why Shape Matters: Nanotubes, Nanoparticles & Nanosheets
Nanotechnology is a scale, not a thing.  At the nanoscale, familiar and well understood elements on the periodic table begin to exhibit very unique properties (e.g. electrical, mechanical, thermal, et al) because we have changed their basic shape and structure.

When you change the shape and structure of your foundation material, other molecules (and light/electrons) react and interact differently when they encounter it.  (e.g. nano vs micro particles of silver exhibit different properties)  This could be applied to materials used in computer chips, water desalination membranes, fuel cells, batteries, pharmaceuticals, or plastics.  There is no industry or product left untouched by nanoscale material design.

Shape matters.  And the nano age is opening up a new world of shapes for us to explore.

Beyond shapes the element that is most important to this first phase of nanotechnology is carbon.  And the formats that matter most include:

  • Carbon nanotubes (single/multi-walled)
  • Carbon-based nanoparticles that incorporate other elements (e.g. nickel, iron, silver, platinum, et al)
  • Carbon graphene sheets (thin layers of carbon)

These three forms of carbon are likely to give rise to new industrial concepts capable of altering our assumptions of what is possible in materials world via:  organic electronics (e.g. carbon based electronics), nanocomposites, nanostructured catalaysts, MEMS (micro electromechanical systems), and nano sensor arrays

Whether or not we are entering a  ’launch decade’ for nanomaterials might be based on two fundamental shifts in the sector:

2010-2020 From Synthesis to Functionalization
& From Boomers to Gen X & Millennial Generation Researchers

The next decade will likely be shaped by two major shifts – the first is our expanding knowledge base and applied engineering prowess from an age of characterization (learning what things do; nature of nano) and ‘synthesis‘ (how to make them) to an era of ‘functionalization‘ (actually integrating them into manufacturing and applied processes).

In other words, the past twenty years have been focused on learning to make (synthesis) nanotubes, nanoparticles and nanosheets (graphene) – and the next decade will be focused on producing these elements on scale and integrated into other materials and manufacturing techniques. The focus is bringing nanotechnology out of labs and into production facilities and real world markets.

The other major shift relates to the people who serve as researchers, entrepreneurs, regulators, and consumers. It has been Baby Boomers leading the charge since the early 1990s when nanoscale research began in earnest. This generation gave shape to the first knowledge base of nanostructured materials that seemed to contradict many previously assumed principles of molecular interactions.

This Boomer generation has also been cultivating the next generation of researchers who arrive in labs with a more solid collective knowledge base of nanostructured materials and fewer assumptions about what isn’t possible.  These ‘Gen X‘ and Millennial generation researchers might bring a very different spirit to nano era that is more entrepreneurial and applied.

These two transitions will also need a greater context to have any meaning to leaders and citizens of the world.  And that context might have less to do with technology, and everything to do with demographics, economics and industrial capacity and ecological sustainability based on micro-scale applications of natural resources.

Nanoscale science and engineering allows us to rethink how we use key elements like iron ore, hydrocarbon, precious metals and carbon.   And in the most optimistic scenario might lead to a new industrial revolution that is more sustainable and profitable than today’s current material manufacturing model.

———————————————————————————–

A brief interlude on the science and recent research:

Carbon nanotubes (CNTs)

CNTs are versatile cylindrical materials that have a wide range of performance properties:

  • mechanical properties as reinforcement in low-cost, high performance lightweight composites
  • electrical properties for semiconductor applications
  • sensing abilities for imaging and gas molecule detection
  • chemical properties to process chemical fuels (e.g. synthetic fuels, hydrogen, biofuels)
  • thermal properties for absorbing heath; transforming heat to electricity

[Safety is of course a top priority - but not an issue I will cover in this post!  I will only note that federal regulators have been working with researchers and manufacturers in assessing risks and impacts of CNT nanocomposites are automotive industry, aviation/aerospace, electronics-telecommunications, medicine, and recreational goods industries.]

What matters is real world production levels!   We are in year one of real commercial scale volume by early industry leaders such as Bayer MaterialScience,  Thomas-Swan and Unidym.   By the end of the decade we would expect incumbents in today’s petrochemical and materials manufacturing to be competing in this space!

And while we should be monitoring commericalization efforts, foresight commands us to understand the pipeline and roadmap beyond 2010.

Recent notable breakthroughs include:

So much for ‘nanotubes’! And forgive me for skipping carbon support structures used in nanoparticles!  This post is already too long!

Graphene
The other major platform for carbon nanomaterial is a thin sheet known as graphene.   Graphene, which is different from graphite in pencils, is a one layer thick sheet of carbon. While CNTs were first isolated and synthesized in the 1990s, graphene research is less than a decade old.

Graphene is on record as the highest surface area material and strongest known material yet synthesized, but most researchers cherish graphene for their electrical properties allow electrons to speed along faster than silicon-based transistors (and also absorb heat!).

Graphene is a likely candidate for high performance alternatives to silicon and precious metal based electronics. And based on the rate of progress and easier obstacles compared to CNTs (e.g. chirality of metal vs insulator versions of CNTs) and shape, I am more confident in graphene applications as the disruptive force for near term carbon nanomaterial applciations.

Recent highlights:

———————————————————————————-

A Roadmap for 2010 – 2020

So how do we work towards making this next decade the launch decade for carbon nanomaterials?

First, we need to put aside the excessive hype and uninformed skepticism –  and be practical!

We do not need to over hype nanotechnology to have a serious conversation about its potential to change the physical and digital foundations of our major industrial sectors.

And we do not need to pooh-pooh – or roll our eyes – when we hear about nanotechnology’s first phase of development focused on additives, coatings and simple nanocomposites.

Nobody expects the commercialization of the most fantastical concepts (e.g. nano robots floating through your blood stream), we should focus on Phase One nanoscale engineering based on ‘tubes’, ‘particles’ and ’sheets’.

The most practical way forwards is to focus on integrating nanomaterials into existing manufacturing techniques (rather than introduce novel nano-production systems).

Second, we need to engage the next generation of business entrepreneurs and leaders in pushing forward the mainstream campaigns for discussing the benefits and risks associated with nanomaterials.

And in this public awareness process we must recognize the limitations of having effective public or political conversations regarding carbon nanomaterials. It is a subject far off the radar of most people in the world, and it is not feasible to make any sound forecasts of what might happen by tapping current day opinions.

Most people are unlikely to see carbon as a source of great wealth creation and the foundation for new industries, anymore than people in 1950s could look at sand (silica dioxide)  and see it as the pillar material for the telecommunications revolution that occurred in the second half of the 20th century.

So we will need leaders to explain the vision, and framers and curators to explain our progress.

And if we are lucky, a successful business person who makes a lot of money on a breakthrough nanoproduct can’t hurt the image of the industry!

We need to close the knowledge and perception gap of what nanotechnology is… and isn’t.  And then we might be in a position to have an informed public debate on how much we should invest, and when.

For now, I hope that researchers continue to build bridges to the entrepreneurial community around the three foundations of carbon nanomaterials: nanotubes, nanoparticles and nanosheets (graphene)

Want to learn more…?   A few resources below..

Following Carbon on Twitter;

My delicious bookmarks on carbon:

Interesting sites:


Companies

Carbon’s industrial formats including pure carbon, carbon+oxygen, carbon+hydrogen:

Stanford Nanoelectronics Group presents “Nanotechnology – Carbon Nanotube Electronics”

Carbon Nanotube flexible speaker

Fujitsu Laboratories New Carbon Nanotube Composite : DigInfo

Intel Science Talent Search 2009 – Philip Streich

From: Giant-Stroke, Superelastic
Carbon Nanotube Aerogel Muscles. Science, Vol. 323 Issue 5921, March 19, 2009.

Past, Present & Future of Craftsman & Industrialists
If we look to the past, we can see various stages of civilization that have been shaped by builders of things.

The first creators of things used natural materials (dirt/clay, wood, stone),  before turning to heat and reactive additives to transform ores into metals/alloys (copper/bronze/steel).  In the 20th century we turned to modern chemistry and hydrocarbon resources to synthesize polymers/composites (plastics), and then new tools for layering/etching patterns to develop micro-structured semiconductor materials (silicon, et al).

The materials technology view of social change is not the only lens or explanation of the past, present or future, but it seems to hold particular significance as we look to a near term future shaped by nanoscale materials design andbio-industrial processes.

Image credit: http://www.thp.uni-koeln.de/graphene08/ by Jannik Meyer

]]> http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/03/23/carbon-nanomaterials-obama-makers-of-things/feed/ 1 Point, Click & Learn: The Future of Cloud based Visual Search and Augmented Learning http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/03/15/future-of-cloud-visual-search-services-augmented-learning/ http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/03/15/future-of-cloud-visual-search-services-augmented-learning/#comments Tue, 16 Mar 2010 02:57:04 +0000 Garry Golden http://www.garrygolden.net/?p=821

‘Point, Click & Learn’
Visual search and augmented reality experiences seemed poised to evolve as early adopter platforms for learning based on images, objects and places that exist in the physical world.

Google, Nokia, Ricoh, Intel, and Microsoft have all demonstrated or released beta and 1.0 version services that layer digital information over images and video captured by the camera holder or person looking at the screen.

The vision (pun intended) for visual and augmented reality platforms is to use cameras, screens and projection systems for uncovering and layering digital information about objects (including text)  and places.   So you can learn about a particular flower or building while standing in front of it, and not when you are at home sitting in front of your computer.  The hope is to move beyond photo/video capture and bring new functionality to the lens as a learning device.  No keyboard or mouse needed- just point, click and learn.

Camera + Web-based Software = Augmented Visual Learning
We can already see demonstrations of first generation personal learning experiences based on visual augmented reality (digital layers over real world images) and software services that tap the power of scalable  cloud computing architectures:

  • A student learning biology is able to point, click & learn about a tree leaf, an insect or a bird whether the object exists in real life or as an image inside a book  (e.g. Bobcat tracking app; IdentityTree)
  • A tourist uses their mobile camera to identify the name and history of a landmark building; or to help them learn about the local mass transit options (e.g. ‘Nearest Subway’ app; BART)
  • A museum visitor sees an art piece and wants to learn more about the artist (e.g. museum app)
  • An architecture student want to see a time-lapsed reply of a building’s construction, or an ‘x-ray’ layer image of the structural beams below the exterior skin
  • An aspiring wine connoisseur wants to learn more about a vineyard or ideal food pairing by snapping an image of the bottle while inside the retail store (e.g.  Tesco Wine app YouTube video; demo)
  • Someone reading a newspaper sees a compelling image – points, clicks and learns more about the topic (e.g. Ricoh iCandy app1; demo2)
  • A star gazer visiting the Southern hemisphere looks up at an unfamiliar sky – points, clicks and learns via an augmented layer explaining the night sky (e.g. Google Sky demo)

This is quite an impressive list for 2010!  And yet these are only examples based on first generation software, hardware and a tiny catalog of images.  The most exciting learning applications of visual search are ahead of us!

Visual Search 2011-2020
It is important not to confuse today’s beta and 1.0 version visual search and augmented reality apps with those likely to image in the next decade.   Both platforms are likely to evolve alongside other applications based on 2D-3D modeling, location based services, robotic vision, tagging, visual mashups, personal assistants (e.g. Siri) and personal learning systems.

But in order to have a ‘real-time‘ experience in which we capture an image and have it immediately identified (from a catalog) and layered with relevant digital background information – we must think beyond the phone or camera itself and see the potential of software as service models.

Visual search catalogs and services will ‘live in the cloud‘ and not on our devices.  In other words, we will not have to rely on the memory or processing power inside of our phones.  The phone will access image catalogs stored on the internet (or ‘in the cloud’).

This software-as-service architecture of cloud computing (e.g. networked & virtualized) offers users tremendous storage and processing power.  It is a low cost, scalable platform for  individuals and companies to store, access and collectively learn about physical objects captured by camera lenses.  This will allow us to access billions of images, tags and related content by tapping this massive cloud catalog of object shapes and textures.

My wish list for advanced visual search and learning by 2020?
Making the invisible, visible
I am most interested in real-time augmented reality experiences that allow users to test alternative assumptions and scenarios with real-world systems.  I’d like to see visual interfaces that reveal layers about the molecular structure of our natural and synthetic worlds.  And if all goes well, it might be micro-projectors which layer images directly onto objects and surfaces that really change the game by the end of the decade.

Imagine an engineering student standing on a highway overpass to study traffic flow patterns and then changing the parameters of vehicle speed and driver behavior to test alternative results.  Or imagine a 5th grade student zooming in on any material to see the nanostructured reality that defines the material’s properties.

Alas, that is my vision of the next decade!  For now, I am comforted and enthusiastic about the Beta and Version 1.0 experiences already on the marketplace!

I’ve included videos from Google and Nokia below:

Nokia’s Point & Find application that uses a video camera to recognize real world objects (e.g. solar panel, buildings, products, et al)

Google has released Google Goggles as its own platform for camera based search

Here we see Goggles being used to translate a menu text (in German) into a captured image into English

Google Goggles Demo

Another Goggles 1.0 real world demo

Using Google Goggles to identify photos taken in Europe

Additional clips

Origional Point and Find demo from Nokia’s Beta Labs

Tesco wine visual search

Nearest Subway Search

Ricoh iCandy Apps

Additional Resources

Image Source:
Creative Commons Attribution License

]]> http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/03/15/future-of-cloud-visual-search-services-augmented-learning/feed/ 5 The Past, Present and Future of Technology as told by Kevin Kelly [Videos] http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/03/13/the-past-present-and-future-of-technology-by-futurist-kevin-kelly/ http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/03/13/the-past-present-and-future-of-technology-by-futurist-kevin-kelly/#comments Sat, 13 Mar 2010 22:38:52 +0000 Garry Golden http://www.garrygolden.net/?p=801

book flickrProfessional Futurists who work with clients are familiar with the perception pitfalls associated with forecasts and scenarios that deal with the impact of technology.

This is why framing forecasts and scenarios around demographics (life stage), cultural (lifestyle) and market structure transitions are more digestible frameworks for getting clients to challenge their assumptions about transformational changes to their business models.

Why is technology a hard pill to swallow?  A combination of reasons: risks of early adoption, costs associated with implementation and support, lack of  pull demand from existing consumers, accepting small market share profits even with fast growth prospects (et al).   And let’s not forget that technology solutions are sold by deeply embedded vendors who have their own varying self-interests in transitioning old vs new platforms.

A less eloquently stated reason is that the theme of technology (especially ‘digital’ and ‘web’ technology) just scares most people.  Even if we all agree that technology on its own is never a solution, and that there is always a tendency of over-hype it in the short-term, many people struggle to overcome strong negative emotional/gut responses to new technology platforms.

For most audiences technology seems too gimmicky…  too young and hip… too transparent and invasive… or too time consuming.   These are legitimate barriers for getting audiences to see real world applications for customers.

Technology should always be placed in the context of culture, market and regulatory structures.  Without this broader context it will always be easier to roll our eyes than to probe, explore and seek to understand.

To get us to this place of understanding the broader social context of technology we need framers like Kevin Kelly to bring context to the story of technology – past, present and future.

Kevin Kelly:Technology & Foresight Foundations of Social Change & Systems Thinking
Kevin Kelly has spent decades preparing a script to tell  the epic story of technology’s past, present and future.  As a Former Editor of the Whole Earth Review and past Editor of Wired he holds a very unique perspective that spans our recent historical era where technology has become a widely perceived mechanism (and ‘agent’) of change.

I prefer to see Kelly as an informed observer as much as he is arguably a techno-optimist.  And I believe his passion for understanding technology is rooted in the two pillars of foresight/futures studies: social change and systems thinking.

Social Change frameworks (e.g. Progress, Power & Conflict, Evo-Devo, et al) help us understand change and develop the right models for forecasting possible outcomes.  Systems thinking forces us to understand structure and relationships that shape feedback loops (e.g. vicious vs. virtuous) often associated with non-linear change.  Kelly is quick to point out the non-linear aspects of change shaped by emerging technology platforms.

Here are a few of Kevin Kelly’s public lectures on technology.  Each is a variation of his central exploration in understanding the fundamental nature of technology and life in the universe:

TEDxAmsterdam, 2010

Kevin Kelly: Predicting the next 5,000 days of the web
2007 EG conference

Let’s go back further… before TED had exploded in the mainstream world– and we see many of the same messages (and one-liners) that continue to shape Kevin Kelly’s investigation into the human and universal relationship with technology.

Kevin Kelly: How does technology evolve? Like we did

And finally a recent interview on historical foundations of Wired:

Kelly’s current blog Technium

Image Source: Porfolium Flickr Creative Commons

]]> http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/03/13/the-past-present-and-future-of-technology-by-futurist-kevin-kelly/feed/ 1 Future of Auto Industry Telematics and Connected Cars Will Transform the Driver into Captain http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/02/26/future-of-auto-industry-telematics-and-connected-cars-will-transform-the-driver-into-captain/ http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/02/26/future-of-auto-industry-telematics-and-connected-cars-will-transform-the-driver-into-captain/#comments Fri, 26 Feb 2010 17:21:41 +0000 Garry Golden http://www.garrygolden.net/?p=782

Forecast & Outlook:  The value chain associated with the human driving experience is about to be transformed – and within a decade I suspect most people will no longer see themselves as frustrated drivers but empowered Captains and navigators of complex transportation networks.

The coming age of digitally ‘connected cars’  and robotic (autonomous) vehicles will not take away control from humans, it will extend and expand human judgement, command and control in ways that we cannot currently imagine – or express as consumers!

Updating our Vision of Mobility
The global mobility sector lacks a clear vision and road map for change.  Innovative efforts must deal with the same challenge captured in Henry Ford’s anecdote: “If I would have asked my customers what they wanted, they would have said…a faster horse“.

Today’s drivers want a car that is safer but gets them around faster!  They want a vehicle is that is more powerful but clean and efficient!  But they are not demanding the scalable and cost effective means to those ends which include a more digitally connected car and a new ‘Captain’ role for the human.

So if consumers are not demanding this type of change, we might look at the emergence of new types of workers in the mobility sector!

A Look at our 21st Century Automobile Workforce
One of the most valuable autoworkers of the 21st century is sitting in front of a computer – programming code so digitally connected vehicles can talk to other vehicles about what is happening on the road.  Another autoworker is installing a new off-the-shelf radar system to detect obstacles on the road and warn the driver of hazards.

Another autoworker is designing a new vehicle category around a $1,000 small chariot aimed at short personal trips.   A former new car sales rep is making more money in aftermarket sales by selling software and hardware upgrades to personalize her clients’ electric vehicles.  An insurance agent is talking with a teenage driver explaining video-based driver assistance technologies that will help improve safety and performance behind the wheel.

This 21st century auto industry workforce is creating value by making vehicles that are smarter via sensing technologies, more connected and aware via communication technologies, and more personalized via software and hardware upgrades.  They are creating value by empowering the human mobility experience.

But let’s not avoid confronting the transformative visions!

The end game is a world where connected cars do not crash… a world where drivers are fully engaged in understanding real-time situational analysis… a world where transportation network users know the full range of mobility options (owned or accessed, public or private)… a world where vehicles are capable of autonomously driving themselves in way that is safer and more efficient than anything based on human operators.

These are the logical extensions of all these efforts by the 21st century mobility industry.  We cannot say with certainty how it will be different, only that the future of mobility will be different.

But what these autoworkers are NOT trying to do is making the human irrelevant.  These ‘connected car’ systems are not designed to replace the human driver, they are designed to promote the human from ‘driver to Captain’.

Profits in the Telematic Age of Automobiles

Profits (not technologies) are driving theses changes.  The days of high profit margins based on building a huge metal car to be sold on a car lot to some yet to be determined buyer ended long ago.   This model suffers from an inescapable problem of managing factory capacity utilization, failure of re-occurring revenues, demand for new full model updates, and global brand competition.  [See Ford Skateboard chassis post; GM manufacturing post]  The growth within the new car profit paradigm plateaued a long time ago…

When auto companies had trouble balancing their books via a factory production driven business model, they moved into consumer financing during the 1980s-90s.  It was good, for a while!  Now this platform is facing more competition for consumer financing and uncertainty in our regulatory landscape.

Time to step up the value chain…

Automakers are getting back to the fundamentals of rethinking mobility and building their next growth platform around the Age of Telematics.

Telematics include hardware, software and services that transform the driving experience.  This is the world of GM’s OnStar, Ford’s Sync and Kia’s uVo and thousands of yet to be named applications that will alter how we move within the world across vehicles that we own and access.

Telematic applications for ‘connected cars’ include: crash warning system, collision avoidance, point to point navigation, hands-free communication, adaptive cruise control, and automatic driving assistance systems (e.g. lane change assistance, braking assistance, et al)

The hope is a world that will be safer for drivers and pedestrians, less congestion via more transparent traffic flows, and easier access to transit solutions.

But this ‘connected car’ effort is also only the first step…

The end game is a vehicle that is so connected and situationally aware that it can operate autonomously without human drivers on public roads.

We all know this conceptually from Hollywood movies, but for those few people who have been actively tracking the development of these systems (e.g. DARPA Challenges; evolution of OEMs) we can now see a clear roadmap and path forward.

And as with most disruptive platforms, it is the human factors, not the technology factors that will determine how fast and successfully we make the transition.  The relevant question is not ‘when will it happen’, but ‘why should it happen’?

The great news is that ‘connected cars’ and fully autonomous vehicles preserve the human ego and are less threatening than one might believe…

The Value Chain of Mobility
There is a difference between ‘who is in charge’ versus ‘who is doing the grunt work’.  The naval Captain oversees the boat, but does not have hands on the wheel unless needed.  The student is in charge of solving the math problem but the calculator does the work.  The farmer who drives the tractor is still ultimately responsible for managing the complexities of planting and growing crops.

Technologies that ‘automate’ human tasks do not make humans irrelevant, they merely push humans up the value chain and allow us to eliminate the grunt work.

Today the value chain of our driving experience includes steering, accelerating, and braking.  Our primary lens for making all of our decisions is based on the very limited visual perspectives of looking forward, to the side and in our rear view mirror.   Despite our delusions of being attentive drivers, we actually see and know very little about what is actually happening ahead of us beyond our line of sight.

How much do we value these tasks?

I think we value talking on our phones and texting more than steering, braking and accelerating!

Despite our claims of loving to drive, in our daily commutes, we are obviously bored.

The real  value is not driving, but getting to our destination safely and as fast as humanly possible!  The problem is that we are seeing the limits of what is possible with humans!

Telematic technologies are going to transform the value chain of vehicle operation and navigation within congested traffic settings.

Tomorrow, we will have more ‘situational awareness’ information flows that include real-time data gathered from vehicles ahead on the road.  We will know to leave 10 minutes early if it means arriving on time, or leaving 15 minutes later if it means avoiding congestion.

We will be able to see alternative routes to our destination by tapping ‘top down’ live video images that show us what is actually happening ahead.  During congested traffic (not on open Montana roads) our ‘connected cars’ will tell us how fast to drive based on actual (optimal) traffic flow patterns and when to merge lanes for our exit.

The ‘connected car’ will be the guide, but the human will be the Captain making higher value decisions.

Nonsense, some may say.  Humans will never listen’ to their car – or take orders.

I say it makes perfect sense.  Just wait until drivers have that first experience of real-time information that improves their commute.  Only the actual experience itself will be able to change our assumptions of what is desirable based on advanced telematic systems.

I expect people will love their ‘connected cars’ even more than they do today.

And if you don’t expect West Texas libertarians to ‘listen to their cars’, then what about 16 year olds who are required by their insurance companies and incentivized by their parents?  What about 80 million digital native Millennials/GenY drivers?   Or the 80 million aging Baby Boomers who appreciate a collaborative relationship with their car?

These ‘smart’ ‘connected cars’ will make us better drivers.   And they will be our first step into the Captain’s chair.

They will not make us irrelevant; they will simply push the human further up the command and control ladder.

Ok, Mr Futurist!  When is this going to happen?

It seems that every luxury car on the market is offering ‘assistive parking’ and driver crash warning systems.  And the 2010 Ford Taurus is the first mainstream car equipped with adaptive cruise control.  Yet while the ‘connected car’ product ecosystem is already present within the market, the vision has not yet been clearly stated!

I suspect we won’t be able to have an honest public conversation about what is possible until 2013-2017 when ‘connected cars’ and adaptive cruise control become standard to our driving experience.

That is when I would expect we can see real life value in something as simple+radical as a horseless carriage, a flying metal plane, an ATM machine, ‘world wide computer network’ or handheld computer.

For now, let’s not even try to forecast fully autonomous cars on the highway until we are standing mid-decade and the next generation of autoworkers are actually in place.

Until then, I expect that notion of ‘robotic’ (autonomous) cars will be defined by fear and assumptions that ‘you want to replace me’ or ‘force me to give up control’.

So I am focusing on spreading the ‘Captain’ meme… and pointing out that ‘connected cars’ will not take away control, but extend it and empower the human in ways that we cannot currently imagine!

]]> http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/02/26/future-of-auto-industry-telematics-and-connected-cars-will-transform-the-driver-into-captain/feed/ 2 Bloom Energy CEO Interview Focuses on Future of Fuel Cell Energy http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/02/25/bloom-energy-ceo-future-of-fuel-cell-energy-101-interview/ http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/02/25/bloom-energy-ceo-future-of-fuel-cell-energy-101-interview/#comments Thu, 25 Feb 2010 16:43:14 +0000 Garry Golden http://www.garrygolden.net/?p=776

Bloom Energy CEO KR Sridhar gives a wonderful 101 style interview with Fresh Dialogues in which he explains the fundamentals of fuel cell energy and why it is a very smart bet on the future of energy across electricity power generation and vehicle electrification.

Fuel cell based Power Generation: Bridge & End Destination:
Despite the failure of fuel cells to live up to the  ‘Hype’ Phase of expected growth created during the DotCom Bubble, the electrochemical platform continues to evolve and remains a viable 21st century platform for cost effective and clean energy applications for portable power (micro- and transportation) and stationary electricity production.

A few points to note…

As is true with any new disruptive technology platform it will take time to develop and unfold.  It is important not to oversell the speed of change, yet avoid underselling the transformational power of fuel cells to change our world in the long-term!

And while Bloom is not the first company to bring stationary fuel cells to the market, it is the first to garner this much attention!  And awareness of what is possible with distributed power generation is very critical to the industry’s growth!

What makes Bloom Energy’s fuel cell important is that it can better utilize our dominant primary input of hydrocarbon fuels (mainly natural gas) for electricity generation, yet remain relevant to future ‘clean chemical fuels’ (e.g. hydrogen, hydrogen rich biofuels and synfuels).

Sridhar understands the dynamics of energy market transitions and the role that fuels play in electricity production.  The company has wisely decided to ‘build a bridge‘ and a ‘future destination‘ around fuel cells.

Central Power Plant Combustion vs Distributed Power Generation Electrochemical Conversion
Sridhar explains the advantages of direct chemical fuel to electricity generation.  Today we use large centralized power plants that convert hydrocarbon fuels (e.g. coal and natural gas) via multiple steps: combustion conversion of chemical energy to thermal-heat energy (water/steam) to mechanical energy (turbine) to electrical energy.  Lots of energy loss there!  And it requires massive capital investments (that are ‘peak demand’ oriented) and operational costs for central infrastructure maintenance and control.  Oh, and then there are the costs associated with transmission disruption along the wire grid via intentional attack or accidental overload.

Stationary fuel cells take that same chemical fuel (prefer hydrogen rich natural gas delivered via pipelines or trucks) and convert the chemical energy via electrochemical reactions directly into electrical energy.  One step that requires no moving parts.  And it is done at a lower capital cost, and with less operational overhead.  There is less risk because the fuel is distributed locally and can be converted via an energy appliance.

Bloom is opening the door to smaller distributed power generation. Neither this one company nor today’s versions of fuel cell platforms are going to transform the world any time soon!  But the door is open and the public is now getting an important lesson in the market dynamics of distributed energy!

Battery vs Fuel cell?
A battery is only a storage device.  Fuel cells are power generators!  One stores energy, the other converts fuels.  For many reasons (e.g. cost, weight, uptime, portability, non-grid production, profit structure) fuel cells are a more desirable energy platform.  Batteries are very important, but they do not offer the same transformational potential to global energy markets.

Batteries can be used to support the grid, whereas fuel cells make the grid irrelevant.  That is a very simple but disruptive concept that could alter how people around the world access fuels and electricity.

Solar & Wind vs Fuel cells?
This role of fuels is often overlooked in discussions around the future of energy.  Solar and wind are largely ‘grid oriented’ sources of electricity (exception being ‘rooftop’ solar that is ‘distributed power generation’).  Solar and wind compete against dominant ‘chemical fuel’ markets like coal and natural gas.  And despite all the upsides of renewable photons and wind patterns, it is hard to compete with the energy potential locked up inside chemical bonds that are extracted from the ground, or assembled above ground via chemical or bioenergy engineering.

Fuel cells play directly into the chemical fuels market, and offer a more cost effective and cleaner way to convert hydrocarbons into electricity beyond the centralized power plant model.

Of course, we must evolve all energy systems!  It is not ‘either or’ – and no single energy system can be viewed as a ‘holy grail’ to our complex set of energy challenges!

Again, I’ll step off my futures soapbox.. here is Sridhar’s interview:

[via Fresh Dialogues]

Related posts:

Additional interview with some more detailed explanation

]]> http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/02/25/bloom-energy-ceo-future-of-fuel-cell-energy-101-interview/feed/ 0 Future of Game-based and Social Learning Will Reshape Role of Personal Data, Feedback Loops and Reflection Tools http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/02/24/future-of-game-social-informal-lifelong-learning/ http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/02/24/future-of-game-social-informal-lifelong-learning/#comments Wed, 24 Feb 2010 17:14:43 +0000 Garry Golden http://www.garrygolden.net/?p=764

The good news is that the perceived value of ‘games-based learning‘ and ‘social learning‘ is starting to gain mainstream traction as a way of reconciling and bridging the worlds of formal (institutional) and informal learning that stretches from learner experiences within schools and workplaces – to our activities at home and while we are within the physical world.

The bad news is that most conversations about ‘the future‘ simply extend present day notions of ‘games’ and ’social web’ experiences into the future – rather than explore new assumptions about how both might evolve in the years ahead.

In other words, the future of learning management systems is NOT World or Warcraft or Facebook!!  Learning inputs and outcomes will not be based on what we do on computers or game consoles (device orientation), it will be based on things we do inside a world where most things and places are networked and sensing (learner orientation).

Focusing on Grades vs The Journey’s Experience
In the following talk Jesse Schell explores the future of game based learning in a future world shaped by objects (products) and environments with embedded sensors, ubiquitous access to scalable cloud-based web services, and unified interfaces via voice/video/virtual agent-based experiences.

Schell explores how these emerging platforms mgiht build upon current day trends around games that integrate reality (not allow us to escape from it!) – fantasy football, hiking/geo-caching for treasures, and Weight Watcher ‘point systems’.   He imagines at the center of these games that engage us in the layers of our reality, will be a learner who can see all relevant data, understand system structure, and become more self reflective and accountable based on their actions!

He argues (or at least, my interpretation!!)  that we need to design games as life long learning systems centered on feedback loops of privately managed data sets that connect what we do with our outcomes (e.g. overweight because what I ate; ill-informed about a world issue because of what I have/haven’t read; I have bad teeth because I don’t brush long enough).   This notion builds upon the often cited work related to  ’Quant Self‘ or Quantified Self. [See resources below]

Schell’s vision (that I share!!) is that games and experience design supports the emergence of a culture of learning and a desire to genuinely improve ourselves!

How do we get there?  The learning system design shows you the path and tracks your progress – pointing out where you did well and where you need to improve your outcomes by changing your behavior!

One of my favorite paraphrased lines from Schell’s talk… ‘instead of giving out grades we should hand out experience points‘!

Absolutely!! Replacing snapshot static grades with pathway and apprenticeship style experience points?  Brilliant!

If we expect to teach people how to become life long learners, we must not give out snapshot grades and graduate them based on age, rather use apprenticeship style progress reports that show there is still much more to learn ahead!!!!

Moving forward?
First, we need to recognize the infancy stage of learning management systems and personal learning platforms that bridge informal and formal learning via games or social learner paradigms!  We are not there yet!  In fact, I’m not sure we even have an inspiring vision?!!

Second, we need to proactively address all the fear oriented assumptions related to the management of transparent lives in this ‘quantified self’ future scenario.

Leaders in the learning space might apply foresight and engage all stakeholders in discussions about emerging assumptions regarding identity management, transparency, and the value of personal data and feedback loops that connect our behavior with outcomes.  Otherwise, fear and confusion will shut down otherwise open minds.

Stepping off my soapbox… watch Schell’s video!!

(video via Kevin Fox’s blog, thanks!)

Other people to follow in this ‘quant’ self space:

  • Kevin Kelley’s Quant Self Resource List is a great place to start;
  • Alvis Brigis (Blog; Twitter)
  • I have written on a similar evolution of learning systems based on the principles of situational awareness based learning via perception, comprehensive and projection – and the role media might play in learning!
]]> http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/02/24/future-of-game-social-informal-lifelong-learning/feed/ 1 Bloom Box and the Very Disruptive Future of Distributed Energy [Video] http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/02/23/bloom-energy-box-disruptive-future-of-distributed-energy/ http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/02/23/bloom-energy-box-disruptive-future-of-distributed-energy/#comments Tue, 23 Feb 2010 15:46:22 +0000 Garry Golden http://www.garrygolden.net/?p=755

‘Holy Grail’ vs ‘Disruptive’
Bloom Energy is helping to shake up the conversation about the future of distributed energy systems.  But let’s be clear…!!!   There is no Holy Grail solution for global energy market!  There is no silver bullet!

The spectrum of energy demands is too wide and varied across applications to have one single solution.  Disruptive energy systems exist for the demands of tiny sensors (ambient capture), smart phones (density), electric vehicles (low cost per weight), data centers (reliability), and grid energy (base load).  So let’s not get distracted looking for one solution!

More importantly, we should not confuse an aspirational industry ‘holy grail‘ for a genuinely applied ‘disruptive‘ energy system that could change the cost structure and business model innovation landscape in a way that avoids direct competition with incumbents.

Disruptive energy platforms are rare (e.g. steam engine, internal combustion engine, electrical grid) but we are likely to see more candidates emerge in the 21st century as we tap the power of energy entrepreneurs and advance our knowledge and engineering prowess in the areas of nanoscale materials design and bio industrial processes.

Energy systems are about the interaction of molecules – and both nano- and bio- give humanity new shapes to manipulate and control the interaction of light, electrons and molecules.  And within the energy sector, it is materials science that enables business model innovation (not the other way around)!  This is a materials science game!

Why Bloom Energy’s Distributed Fuel Cell Vision is Disruptive
Low cost, highly reliable distributed power generation systems are disruptive because they open up a new ecosystem for non-grid based power generation that can bypass the incumbents entrenched business model.

They are green in the sense that electrochemical energy conversion is more efficient and less polluting than combustion conversion.  But let’s be clear.  Being green is less disruptive than being cheap, reliable and distributed.

What makes an energy system disruptive?
Let’s look at two versions of solar.  Traditional solar farms try to compete directly against the grid without a chemical fuel.  Good luck!  Feels good, but it’s not disruptive.  You are at the mercy of grid access, price volatility of chemical fuels, and the regulatory frameworks of the utility sector.
The disruptive version is ‘distributed solar’ (e.g. rooftop via thin film solar) and is not connected to the grid, and creates new market demand rather than trying to replace or repair the old model.

Fuel cells convert chemical fuels (e.g. natural gas, oil, coal, propane, biofuels, hydrogen) into electricity.  They are silent, have no moving parts and can be manufactured using low cost scalable and modular assembly.

Electricity powers the future!  And fuels dominate the electricity power generation market.

Bloom Energy plays into the fuels market, but offers a non-grid solution for energy!

Bloom Energy’s success will of course be based on its ability to continue to apply innovative technology with great business leadership.   As to the skeptic points raised by Greentech Media’s Michael Kanellos (whom I respect and admire!) here are my notes on issues of:

  • Hype: I hear you!  Of course, we’ve followed this since Ballard’s bubble in the late 1990s.  But you know that all technologies pass through the hype cycle!  Shouldn’t we compare notes on latest developments in labs and Board rooms and talk about an plausible roadmap that has commercialization within 2-10 years for first wave of products?!  Bloom is testing an actual product!
  • Durability:  Fuel cells do not have to last 30 years. Stacks can be broken down, replaced, et al.  And the cost is per unit, not per power plant.  So we don’t need a product that lasts forever!
  • Mass manufacturing: Fuel cells are modular, scalable units and I see no reason why manufacturing cannot be scaled?  Certainly a barrier, but not a show-stopper.
  • Competition: ‘It will be GE, not Bloom Energy!’ — Great!  That is not a criticism.  I expect incumbents will play!  If Siemens, GE, Dow, DuPont, JC, Emerson (et al) get into the game, great news!
  • Cost – Bloom’s CEO stated $3,000 price point – a fine place to start, but really, we need $300! ;-)   But it seems clear that low cost alternatives to precious metals are becoming commercially viable.

Watch: 60 minutes [video]


Watch CBS News Videos Online

Read similar posts


Note:
I have followed Bloom Energy since it was formerly Ion America many years ago.  And I have been an evangelist for the disruptive market potential for fuel cells applied to portable and distributed power generation.   And to all the doubters of fuel cells or hydrogen I have responses to the dated and misguided criticisms related to storage, production, energy loss, et al.  Happy to answer questions in Comments section.

Additional Videos for more in depth interviews

]]> http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/02/23/bloom-energy-box-disruptive-future-of-distributed-energy/feed/ 7 Personal power systems via micro fuel cells might be the most disruptive idea for the future of energy! http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/02/21/future-of-portable-personal-power-via-micro-fuel-cells/ http://www.garrygolden.net/2010/02/21/future-of-portable-personal-power-via-micro-fuel-cells/#comments Sun, 21 Feb 2010 14:49:42 +0000 Garry Golden http://www.garrygolden.net/?p=719

Forecast and Outlook:  The vision of personal power systems based on fuel packets and micro fuel cells is arguably the most disruptive concept of future energy systems in the world today.  And yet it remains completely off the radar of most conversations about the future of energy.

The disruptive vision of energy access to anyone, anywhere in the world is two-fold:

  • Fuel – Anyone in the world can buy clean, low cost fuel as long as they they have access to general retail markets. [e.g. you can buy safe packets of fuel next to a pack of gum.]
    [*Fuels are developed via any/all primary resources from renewables to hydrocarbons. The main point here is that we are bringing fuels to the user, not to the power plant!]
  • ‘Personal power plants‘ (e.g. micro fuel cells) sold via retail stores in all sizes: from those already embedded inside consumer products (e.g. phone), to a small portable $10 charger or a $100 appliance that can power your home. [Fuel cells convert hydrogen rich fuels into electrical energy] [Note: Bloom Energy just released its press on The Bloom Box, video!]

This is the vision, and not a snapshot of first generation products currently on the market!  And I am not saying that we should abandon our accelerated focus on new forms of energy production or battery storage!  Just realize that cheap renewable grid energy or better batteries does not solve  issues of access and portability.  We cannot forget about the role ‘fuels’ and power conversion devices play in the energy world!!

To provide energy access to anyone, anywhere in the world we must focus on increasing access to clean fuels and reducing the cost of fuel cell conversion devices.

Why micro fuel cells? Non-grid Access & Portability

Portable power systems are those that use fuels to produce electricity in a device that can be carried by an individual person.  This notion goes beyond today’s grid-dependent rechargeable battery model to include micro fuel cells that convert hydrogen-rich chemical fuels into electricity.

Portable power can also be extended beyond people to the transportation sector for electric vehicles powered by batteries and fuel cells, and for remote auxiliary power (e.g. telecommunication towers).

Think of portable power systems as tiny power plants rather than storage devices like batteries.  But there is a key difference in the deliver of fuels to the the user and the cost of converting that fuel into electricity…

Micro fuel cells by-pass the grid and bring fuels directly to the end user.  Hydrogen rich chemical fuels come to market as small packets (e.g. small liquid containers of methanol, sponges of solid hydrogen).  They are safe and operate at room temperature.  And most importantly, can be bought and sold over a retail shelf.  The ‘packet’ of fuel is bought and controlled by the user.    No monthly contracts.  If they want to pay a premium for renewable resource derived fuel packets, by all means!

Instead of relying on multi-billion dollar power plants, fuel cell conversion devices will be made using low cost manufacturing techniques.  They are silent, have no moving parts and can be manufactured to any size/scale.

Portable power systems mean no need to access the grid.  No need to fight with strangers over a wall socket in a café or airport.  No need to hang wires from your new thin screen television.  No need to have plugs built into your kitchen counter top because your toast and coffee maker do not need to be ‘plugged in’.  They are all simply refueled.

How do we get there?
So how do we ‘unplug’ and access electricity away from the grid?  By radically transforming the cost structure and business models associated with low cost packets of chemical fuels (e.g. methanol, hydrogen, et al) that can be sold over retail shelves, and micro fuel cells (energy conversion devices) that can be embedded in any and all objects or sold as stand alone micro power plants.

The road map to this future is largely dependent on our ability to translate our expanding knowledge of energy systems into nanoscale materials engineering and next generation manufacturing techniques.

Once major cost and production challenges are overcome, the marketplace dynamics for diffusion of micro fuel cells will not have to compete against the existing grid model.  It can grow as fast as the user side demands. (e.g. it is a low end disruptive strategy that does not have to battle the incumbent).

Ummm, what if there is no current consumer demand?


Why I am not worried that consumers do not care about micro fuel cells!!
We are all familiar the essence of the anecdote of Henry Ford: “…if I would have asked my customers what they needed, they would have said a faster horse.’

Portable power receives virtually no attention within the media because micro fuel cells are simply not a viable option today!  And most consumers can see no real world applications for energy beyond their current assumptions of what is possible with batteries and solar roof panels.

Most people have no idea how the internal combustion engine works, let alone the electrochemical principles of  a micro fuel cell or the disruptive business model of distributed energy production.

Micro fuel cells occupy the same spot of consumer irrelevance that was held by the need for a horseless carriage when ‘my buggy works just fine thank you’, or the benefits of an ATM machine when ‘I really prefer to have human contact with my bank tellers, thank you’…. or demand during the early PC age when ‘… I don’t need a ‘home computer’ because I don’t need to do calculations at home, thank you.’

I do not expect consumer demand will lead this transition… nor do I expect it will come from within the existing energy industry.

I am not worried about what first generation micro fuel cells or solid hydrogen sponges can do today.  I care where we think we might be in 2015, 2020, 2025.

Personal power systems will likely come from  startups and entrepreneurs intent on creating new markets, not trying to add band aids to existing platforms. And I am fully confident that enough energy entrepreneurs in the micro fuel cell world see this same low end disruptive vision of putting power plants into the hands of consumers and bypassing the grid.    I am also fully confident that chemical fuel providers will embrace and innovate to meet the high premium value and price placed on smaller bundled packages of energy.

Micro fuel cells (’direct methanol’ and water activated powder versions) are expected to be brought to mass markets as batter rechargers soon after 2011.  And I suspect the real time horizon of disruptive change will occur 2015-2030.

It took us half a century to build out the electrical infrastructure of the 20th century, and I don’t expect it will be threatened anytime soon!

For now, the best we can do is explore the implications of this vision for personal power systems, and continue to monitor latest breakthroughs in materials science and the efforts of startups to bring micro power solutions to early adopter markets such as the military and back up power market.


Micro Fuel cell companies (in no particular order):

Extra Notes:
Embracing New Assumptions: The Hype vs Vision of Portable Power
All new disruptive technology platforms must walk through the stages of the ‘Hype Cycle‘, and confront our natural tendency to overestimate short-term change, but underestimate the long term potential.

I am selling the long-term vision, not the short-term hype of personal energy systems!   I am making a case that barriers can and should be overcome so that we can reap the benefits of distributed energy systems.   So rather than describe a snapshot of first generation micro fuel cells (as they exist today), let’s embrace and explore a new set of assumptions:

  • Retail access to energy!
    The vision is: you can buy a packet of energy or micro power device next to a bar of soap or bag of rice whether you are in Walmart, Whole Foods or a tiny rural village in India. While visionaries try to put solar cells on every rooftop, don’t forget the role ‘fuels’ play in our energy system.
  • We unplug everything!
    Electricity consuming products are embedded with micro fuel.  No more cords or plugs.  No more grid dependency.  You only need packets of fuel to keep your device running. (e.g. Every object contains within it a micro power plant that converts a fuel into electricity.)
  • Fuel cell energy conversion devices!
    Chemical energy is converted into electricity via low cost fuel cells that consist of stacks of ‘tin foil’ like membrane sheets, rather than large metal turbines at multi-million dollar power plants.
    This means our electricity producing devices can be manufactured using industrial ‘ink jet’ printing machines and plastic casings, rather metal tooling machines.  And they are quiet and have no moving parts!


Extra Notes:
Disrupting the Era of Grid Dependency

For most of human history all energy was local.  Regionally available fuels (e.g. wood/biomass) were converted onsite (e.g. usually via fire) and controlled by the individual.   This was expensive in terms of labor and environmental impact (goodbye forests, goodbye clean air) but did not require organized capital investment or complex ‘energy companies’.

Then humans figured out a way to master electrons- and the age of electricity was born.  The only problem was that producing electricity was best handled in large power plants.  Thus the electrical grid was born.  And from that point forward access to electrical energy was based on a one-way stream of wires.  And humans became dependent on a ‘grid’ for their access to energy.

Let’s focus on the model: fuels such as coal and natural gas are discovered, exploited, refined, transported, heated to boil water that spin turbines that create electricity that travel long distances over wires to a wall socket.  Break that stream anywhere along the chain and the wall socket is useless.

Efficient? Hardly, more than half the energy is lost in the process.

Reliable?  Yes and no.  Even the .1% downtime of today’s modern grids cost tens of billions of dollars in lost economic productivity.

Cost effective?  Yes!

Valued by users? Absolutely!  (Unless you are talking about my portable gadgets!  Or if I don’t have access to the grid!)

The energy marketplace lesson?  Value and cost matter more than efficiency gains/losses.

Business models that make money beat the physics of energy loss.
(e.g. dear skeptics, stop trying to say hydrogen does not make sense because of laws of thermodynamics.  Can you add value is the only question you must ask!]

So let’s focus on how we can create value for users in a way that makes the centralized grid model irrelevant!  Rethink how we distribute fuels & convert them via distributed micro power plants!

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